Setting The Pick – Final bets for the ECF

Get your bottles of haterade ready for next week, two heavily criticized franchises are poised to fight for their first championship ever.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have punched their ticket to the finals, just the second time ever since relocation, and can potentially hoist their first Larry O’Brien Trophy in the post-Supersonics era.

Regular-season and West Finals MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, might be the most scrutinized Michael Jordan Trophy winner of this century.

It reminds me of rotten tomatoes movie reviews; sometimes the critics love something and the public hates it.

Popular culture makes it convenient to keep punching down on SGA with very little substance.

Then on the other side, the Indiana Pacers are -650 favourites to advance with a 3-1 lead.

ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith has repeatedly pushed the narrative that their leader, Tyrese Haliburton, is not a superstar.

On top of that, The Athletic’s article naming him the most overrated player according to a poll of his peers, added to the discourse that they’re unworthy of the championship spotlight.

Two small-market teams have arrived on the final stage.

The NBA wanted parity, they got parity.

Sometimes you must be careful what you wish for.

For the seventh straight season, we’ll have a new championship winner.

Let’s dive into some East Finals bets before the final round.

Jalen Brunson over 30.5 points (-112)

For starters, I lean towards the Knicks keeping this series alive and saving face with at least one win at Madison Square Garden.

I traditionally buy into the notion that team leaders will come through when it’s win or go home.

Brunson has proven once again these playoffs; he’s a championship-level playmaker.

Of the three teams he’s faced this postseason, Indiana is objectively the weakest defence and his scoring numbers reflect that.

He’s averaged 33.3 ppg these first four games compared to 26.2 against Boston and 31.5 versus Detroit.

However, that scoring production has come with the fewest minutes.

He’s at 36.3 mpg this round, compared to 38.3 and 40.0 respectively in the first two.

You think with their backs against the wall, head coach, Tom Thibodeau, won’t run his trusted players into the ground?

I’m counting on it.

In three career elimination games with the Knicks, Brunson’s averaged 32.0 ppg.

That’s doing him a major disservice as that includes last season’s Game 7 where he left in the third quarter with a broken hand (finishing with 17 points).

The Pacers have been very intentional about staying home and not sending help.

Brunson currently sits at 10.5 potential assists compared to 12.9 in the previous two rounds.

He’s passing less but will still be asked to put the ball in the hoop.

Tyrese Haliburton 10+ assists (-122)

If New York wins, I think it happens due to their offence.

Indiana has proven this series; the Knicks don’t have the tools to hang with them defensively.

Make or miss, the Pacers seem to have a shot attempt up within seconds of changing possessions.

Their strategy has remained consistent every round and works well against a New York team that runs a very tight rotation.

They hunt transition plays and put their opponents on their heels.

Over four games, Indy has outscored New York in transition 65-23 and had the advantage in each game.

With each passing game in this series, I expect the Knicks to tire more and more creating additional room for error.

Haliburton is unsurprisingly a huge factor in their transition offence success.

He currently sits at 18.0 potential assists per game, the highest of his three playoff series.

He’s had a double-double (or better) in three of the four games this round and continues to go toe-to-toe with Brunson for clutch time supremacy.

Hali has proven a love for the theatrics and will surely grab hold of the mic on the biggest stage in basketball.

Pascal Siakam over 20.5 points (-110)

Sticking to the theme of Indy’s solid transition play, Siakam deserves a ton of praise for his aggression getting up and down the court.

His success as a scorer is heavily correlated to Haliburton’s ability to get their offence in motion.

Siakam was assisted on 28 field-goal makes so far in the Conference Finals; 13 of them have come off the hands of Haliburton.

16 of his 40 FGMs were scored in transition, all very early in the shot-clock.

Over four games, he’s averaging 25.8 ppg, well above his baseline.

It might feel like an overpay at his current price, but New York has proven an inability to get back in transition.

Additionally, Siakam has been excellent at capitalizing on mismatches versus New York’s defenders.

Now that Mitchell Robinson is seeing more minutes as a starter, Karl-Anthony Towns has found himself opposite Siakam way more often.

If that continues, I’d guess head coach, Rick Carlisle, will look to exploit that given KAT’s track-record of accumulating fouls.