Setting The Pick – Last call for round one bets

All true ball fans know, this year’s NBA playoffs have given us some of the best storylines, endings and high-quality basketball we’ve had in years.  

For all the noise about ratings we’ve heard this season, ESPN published some glowing data about their viewership thus far. 

 
Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.  

The data aligns with the on-court product – playoff basketball is simply a different calibre compared to the regular season.  

This year has exceeded expectations. 

Only two series remain, both in the West, and Nikola Jokic seems to agree about the overall sentiment.  

 
The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers will go the distance after playing six of the most competitive games of basketball we’ve seen in a while. 

Will the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets follow suit?  
 
Here are my favourite bets for Game 6 (which hints at my answer).  

Jalen Green under 15.5 points (-120) 

The story of this series up until Game 5 has been all about defence.  

Golden State has owned the best defensive rating since Jimmy Butler joined the team. 

Houston finished with the 5th-best defence and held Stephen Curry to just 16.3 ppg over three regular season games. 

Game 5 saw the total skyrocket to 247, nowhere close to the lines offered on FanDuel in the low 200s.  

Head coach, Steve Kerr, admitted in his post-game press conference that his team wasn’t ready for the road game with only a day of rest.  

All signs point to Game 6 reverting back to the first four of the series. 

If it devolves into a rock fight, Jalen Green could be the odd man out.  

Rockets coach, Ime Udoka, is a no-nonsense, defence-first leader who will be scrambling for contingency plans if this game goes as oddsmakers forecast.  

I expect a short leash from him for anyone not dialed in defensively. 

Outside of one explosive scoring performance in Game 2, Green hasn’t established himself against this veteran defence.  

He’s averaged 8.5 ppg in every other game with a 31/25/50 shooting split. 

The Rockets have had the most success running their two-big lineup that features Steven Adams off the bench and Alperen Sengun.  

Green is rarely on the court for those combinations. 

It doesn’t help his case that Amen Thompson seems to have found his offence these last two games (25 and 17 points), taking more possessions out of Green’s hands.  

Considering how the Rockets blew out Golden State in Game 5, I find it telling how Green only tallied 11 points. 

The former No. 2 overall pick has gone under this line 4 out of 5 games and if you expect the Rockets to lose, it’s highly unlikely he has a high-scoring game. 

Draymond Green over 8.5 points (-130) 

Closing line value is often cited as a great indicator of where sharps are getting their money down.  

If you prescribe to that logic – you should be intrigued by Draymond’s line jumping up from 7.5 to 8.5, sitting at the exact same price. 

There are two main factors that point to the Warriors leaning on the former DPOY more.  

First, if you’ve been watching this series, Houston is doing everything possible to keep the ball out of Curry’s hands. 

Often times, they’ll pick him up halfcourt and fully concede 4-on-3 or 4-on-4 situations defensively.  

Anyone but Steph.  

They’re putting their best defender on him and consistently face guarding him, almost to a fault. 

As a result, Golden State is getting up a disproportionate volume of threes from their other players.  

A key to Houston’s defence this season was to take away the three-point line, allowing the third-lowest frequency of FGAs from deep.  

In this series, they’ve taken a drastic shift in their defensive gameplan, allowing the second-most 3PAs of all playoff teams. 

By no means am I saying Dray will be a knockdown shooter tonight, but I’m confident he’ll be dared to take them. 

Green’s shooting splits (31/24/60) have been poor over these five games.  

But he was at 42/33/69 during the regular season and is 45/30/73 over the course of his playoff career.  

Like Rudy Gobert versus the Lakers on Wednesday, there’s room for regression to the mean. 

Additionally, Dray has shown a propensity to step up in series ending scenarios. 

Over the course of his playoff career, he’s played in 36 series clinching games and averaged 13.8 ppg.  

By comparison, he’s averaged 11.5 ppg over 162 total playoff games.  

Given his track-record and Houston’s defensive scheme, I expect him and the others to step up with a chance to clinch at home.