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Setting The Pick – Monitoring trade deadline sellers
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As the new year approaches, NBA trade deadline discussions start to pick up steam.
Many teams that have underperformed must take a hard look in the mirror and re-evaluate how to balance short-term versus long-term success.
With six weeks between now and Feb. 8, expect those teams under the microscope to experiment with their rosters.
Here's what I’ll be targeting in January for three middling Eastern Conference teams.
Toronto Raptors New Starting Five
After all their losing, Toronto’s coaching staff was finally forced to mix up their starting lineup, swapping in Gary Trent Jr. for Dennis Schroder.
Over 26 games played together, Toronto’s original starting unit combined for a minus-six net rating.
It’s not a terrible plus-minus, but far too often the Raptors made a habit of giving up first quarter leads sparking demands for change.
The new starting five played together for the first time on Wednesday and the early results were positive, but don’t race to the bank just yet, it came against the Washington Wizards.
From a betting perspective, two observations stood out.
With Schroder coming off the bench, Scottie Barnes was given increased playmaking responsibilities.
The former Rookie of the Year has been the only bright spot for the Raptors this season, he’s the future of the franchise, so it makes sense in both the short and long-term to put the ball in his hands more often.
Trent Jr. gives their starting five more spacing and puts their most capable catch-and-shoot player beside the team’s two stars.
Moving forward this should result in more assists for ‘Point Scottie’.
The second observation relates to Toronto’s big-man rotation.
Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher have shared the court in 180 minutes this season. On Wednesday, they played zero minutes together.
By slotting in Trent Jr., the Raptors leaned into their perimeter depth off the bench. Jalen McDaniels played a season-high 19 minutes while Otto Porter Jr. was a solid plus-12 in 13 minutes of action.
It’s not as if the Raptors decided to go centre-less, they simply spread out their minutes.
Jakob Poeltl got into foul trouble and played just 21 minutes.
Quietly I think this lineup change affects him more than Schroder.
Toronto’s defence has been steadily declining and the team might simply elect to go offence over defence in the coming weeks.
Poeltl’s minutes have been trending down and this lineup change could result in even less production for the big man going forward.
The Play: Barnes over assists, Poeltl under combos
Chicago Bulls Thinning Out
The Bulls are another team constantly mentioned in trade rumours.
They’ve endured some unfortunate injuries of late which has paved the way to heavier minutes for Andre Drummond.
Nikola Vucevic impressively played all 82 games last season. Last week he finally endured an injury that’ll keep him out for a minimum of seven days.
Cue Drummond who is a limited big man in the modern NBA but carries underrated strengths as a backup centre.
The veteran doesn’t initiate much offence in isolation, can’t shoot threes or free-throws, and isn’t the shot-blocker he once was.
What does he do well? He’s still one of the league’s elite rebounders.
On a per minute basis, Drummond owns a rebounding rate that is 99th percentile in the NBA. If given minutes, he has the profile to lead the NBA in rebounds per game during this stretch.
With no true centre left on the roster, he’ll be given all the minutes he can handle should he stay out of foul trouble.
If the price is reasonable, I’d be taking the over on his rebounding props until Vucevic returns.
The Play: Drummond over rebounds
Hawks Soaring Down The Standings
The Hawks are more talented than their 12-18 record suggests.
Similar to the Raptors, the problem is fit.
Atlanta owns the league’s fifth-best offensive rating. Unfortunately it hasn’t been able to compensate for their defence, which is fourth-worst.
They’ve played 12 games in December and held their opponents to under 115 points just one time: the same volume as Detroit and Washington.
There are two ways they consistently get exploited.
The first is the point of attack where Trae Young is the primary defender. There is a growing game log of explosive guards putting up monster lines versus Atlanta:
Ja Morant – 30 points, 11 assists, 14-for-25 from the field
Tyler Herro – 30 points, 2 assists, 11-for-21 from the field
Fred VanVleet – 32 points, 15 assists, 10-for-20 from the field
From a betting standpoint, this isn’t a problem solved by a trade. Young is this team’s franchise player and they’ll have to take the good with the bad.
Keep exploiting his defensive weaknesses regardless of what happens on Feb. 8.
The second opportunity to bet on relates to their rim protection.
The Hawks are fourth-worst in opponent points in the paint and third-worst at second-chance points allowed.
They allow the third-highest percentage of shots at the rim.
Physical centres like Drummond mentioned above have posted massive lines. The veteran recently dropped a 24-point, 25-rebound performance on 11-of-13 shooting.
If the Hawks are to compete for a playoff-spot, roster changes need to be focused on rim protection. Until then, keep taking advantage of their Swiss cheese defence.
The Play: Over points on opposing PGs and over rebounds on opposing Cs