Setting The Pick – NBA Conference Finals betting preview

Welcome to the parity era of the NBA.

With the defending champion Boston Celtics eliminated, a new Larry O’Brien Trophy winner will be anointed for a seventh-straight season.

To quote my colleague and NBA analyst Jevohn Shepherd, “Goodbye blue bloods, hello new bloods.”

The New York Knicks are the most accomplished of the bunch with two championship banners, the last one being raised in 1973.

The Oklahoma City Thunder made the Finals during their Big-3 era in 2012 and won their lone title in 1979 as the Seattle SuperSonics.

Indiana made the Finals once in 2000 led by Reggie Miller while Minnesota has yet to win a conference title.

It’s all fresh faces in the final four; call it a changing of the guard.

The top-4 choices to win NBA Finals MVP on FanDuel have all never been to the finals.

A new king will be crowned, as we slowly wave goodbye to some of the legends who carried this sport over the last two decades.

OKC remains the heavy favourite to hoist the trophy after wrapping the regular season with the NBA’s highest net rating ever.

But as we’ve witnessed throughout this postseason, if you’ve been betting chalk, you’ve been on the wrong side.

[1] Oklahoma City Thunder vs. [6] Minnesota Timberwolves
Series Prediction – Thunder in 7
Best Bet – Series o5.5 Games (-144)
Favourite Longshot – Isaiah Hartenstein Most Rebounds (+480)

FanDuel’s odds suggest OKC will walk through this series; they’re -370 to advance.

I just can’t shake off how their mini-playoff series played out back in February.

Three games against each other over a two-week period and the T-Wolves walked away with two solid victories.

In the final one, we witnessed an epic collapse from OKC where ESPN’s win probability tool had the Thunder at a 99.8 percent chance to be victorious.

Minnesota pulled off a 25-point comeback, one where the Thunder looked completely lost on offence once they forced SGA to give up the ball.

That defensive stunt cost them this game, the NBA Cup, and several ones over the course of this slugfest versus Denver.

With just one day of rest in between games, Minnesota lurks in the shadows on the other side after resting for six days.

I don’t care that OKC is the youngest team in the league, that rest differential is a factor.

I ultimately feel these two teams are quite evenly matched but am unwilling to go as far as taking Minny at +295.

Three-point variance could be what swings this series.

Both teams have had hot and cold moments over the postseason.

I’ll also point out how confident I am in both defensive units.

Depending on where the lines settle, this series has under written all over it whether it’s game lines or player props.

My one guarantee is that the winner of this series will be the one to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

[3] New York Knicks vs. [4] Indiana Pacers
Series Prediction – Pacers in 6
Best Bet – Indiana Series Winner (+122)
Favourite Longshot – Myles Turner Most Threes (+1900)

Full disclosure – seeing Knicks fans hit the streets instilled vivid flashbacks of Toronto’s 2019 championship run.

I fully admit wanting to see New York get torn apart in jubilation.

We watch sports for life experiences and moments.

When it comes to this series though, I can’t deny what my eyes have seen.

To New York’s credit, they have the top-end talent advantage; something that traditionally tips the balance in one team’s favour.

Jalen Brunson is the best player in this series and there’s a world when you can argue Karl-Anthony Towns is more impactful than Tyrese Haliburton.

My problem stems from the margin with which the Knicks are winning.

In Round 1 against the Pistons, the Knicks required a 21-0 fourth quarter run in the opener to swing that game in their favour.

They almost squandered Game 4 before escaping with a no-call against Josh Hart on a game-winning trip to the line for Detroit.

Outside of their Game 6 beatdown against Boston, New York was playing from behind for the majority of the first five games.

Two epic collapses in Games 1 and 2 for the Celtics proved insurmountable.

The Knicks chipped away late with the Clutch Player of the Year and find themselves in the Conference Finals.

Now look at Indiana’s path – they pummelled both their divisional foes in convincing fashion.

They opened with two blowouts at home, another in Game 4, and then showed some clutch time mettle pulling off an 8-0 run in overtime to send the Bucks home.

Against the Cavaliers, a formidable 1-seed with the league’s top offensive rating, Indiana got a similar mix of wins.

Convincing wins in Games 1 and 4 with a dagger comeback in Game 2, the one that ultimately determined the series.

They did the same thing versus Milwaukee – pulled off an 8-0 run to wrap the game, capped by a Haliburton three-ball.

Those comebacks are the key against New York in my opinion.

It’s not like Indiana just blew their opponents out.

They were able to win similar clutch time games like the Knicks have.

Brunson rightfully is the clutch time king, but Haliburton’s playoff stats deserve similar praise.

A 5-0 record this postseason, no turnovers, and better shooting percentages across the board compared to Brunson.

I’m betting on Indiana’s depth being a difference in this series as it was versus Cleveland.

Head coach, Rick Carlisle, has shown a willingness to go deep into his bench and mash the turbo button defensively with his guards.

Aside from the bets above, I think the true x-factor this series is KAT.

His overs are where I’d go, especially if you count on New York heading to the Finals.