Setting The Pick: NBA Finals betting preview

Two teams remain, one was a slam dunk, and one was from beyond half-court.

The Oklahoma City Thunder opened the year as favourites to win the West (+330) and never let up.

However, they weren’t favoured to win the chip until mid-March, where they leapt over the Boston Celtics as they were gunning for 70 wins.

With the gift of retrospect, NBA fans should have saw the signs given OKC’s all-time best net rating in the regular season.

In the East, few would’ve penciled the Indiana Pacers in for a second franchise Finals appearance.

They opened the season at +5000 to win the chip and it’s not as if their odds improved as the season progressed.

At their peak, the Pacers were available at +15000 after the All-Star break to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

A lot of breaks have gone their way, but their path to the finals deserves more credit.

Not a single series of theirs has gone to seven.

Moneyline bettors got them at plus-money in seven of their 12 wins.

With so many eyes on the final two teams, it’s hard to find any true edge in terms of bets.

Let me go through my standard three predictions per series and highlight some specific markets available on FanDuel.

[1] Oklahoma City Thunder vs. [4] Indiana Pacers

Thunder

Series Prediction – Thunder in 5 (+210)
Best Bet – Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 assist per game (-186)
Favourite Longshot – Aaron Nesmith most threes (+390)

I’ll continue with the trend of doubting the Pacer. I don’t think they’ve faced a team as defensively sound as the Thunder.

I’ve been on record criticizing the voters for anointing Evan Mobley as Defensive Player of the Year.

Indiana’s dismantling of them on the offensive end is further proof that Cleveland was not sound defensively.

Up against OKC, Indy face their first team with zero defensive weaknesses.

So much of their success versus New York was hunting matchup and catching the Knicks sleeping in transition.

This is quite literally the worst team in the NBA to do that against.

Where the battle will be won or lost is beyond the three-point line.

The Pacers have shot 40.1 per cent from deep, well above all other 15 postseason teams.

The Thunder have been quietly struggling from three, shooting 33.6 per cent which is fourth-worst.

It will be an interesting clash of strengths as both teams have been league-best in transition.

OKC owns an 8.5 differential in fast break points while Indiana is second at 6.1.

To put into perspective, the next closest team was Detroit with a six game sample at 2.2 per game.

The Thunder seemingly have an answer for everything the Pacers do well.

Tyrese Haliburton is facing the toughest trio of defenders he’s encountered all season in Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace (two who were First Team All-Defence players).

Pascal Siakam won’t find any easy offence against All-Defensive Second Team player, Jalen Williams.

Should either get to the rim, they’ll be confronted by Chet Holmgren, who was third in blocks this year.

Simply put, this is where the dream run ends.

The Thunder are simply in a class above.

They have the MVP, better defence, and superior player one through five across their starting lineup.

Eleven of the 25 NBA Finals this century have finished in five game or less.

Expect to add this one to the tally.

OKC to score 110+ points in every game (+110)

Lu Dort Oklahoma City Thunder

Post All-Star weekend, the Thunder scored 110 or more points in 25 out of 28 games.

In the postseason, they achieved the feat 12 out of 16 times.

Three came in losses.

One was a 92-87 dogfight against Denver where they went 1-for-25 from deep combined in the first quarter.

I stand by my belief it’ll be a short series.

If I’m wrong, a hat tip to the Pacers.

As of writing, you can bet OKC -2.5 series spread at -132 on FanDuel.

I’d rather take longer odds at +110 with the possibility that the Thunder cover 110 points in a loss and all four of their wins.

If OKC pull off a sweep, this bet becomes even more likely.

I lean towards bets like these when the series trends towards fewer games.

One more consideration - Indiana was the third-fastest team this postseason and allowed 113.3 points per game to their opponents (last amongst the final eight teams).

This series trends towards a track meet.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 1+ three in every game (+140)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder

In the same vein as my first bet above, a FanDuel special like this is aided by the series ending in four or five games.

They also have SGA to score 25 or more in every game of the Finals, priced at -110.

Following the game logs, he’s gone under 25 points three times this postseason.

He’s only failed to record a three twice.

If I’m getting +140 versus -110, I’d rather chase the upside of his three-point shooting.

There are signs that Indiana’s defence favours this bet as well.

For starters, SGA has covered this bet in all three games versus the Pacers over the past two seasons.

He averaged 6.0 three-point attempts and hit 2.7 a game.

Additionally, Indiana’s Cleaning The Glass data shows they have been below-average at limiting threes and particularly bad from above the break, where all of SGA’s come from.

He’s taken 79 three this postseason; only one came from the corner.

The Pacers have demonstrated through three series now that their defensive preference is to allow the opposing superstar to take all the shots.

Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 33.0 PPG which is tops for the postseason.

Donovan Mitchell dropped 34.2 PPG versus Indy compared to 23.8 PPG in the previous round against Miami.

Jalen Brunson averaged his highest point per minute against Indy, finishing at 30.7 PPG.

Perhaps head coach, Rick Carlisle, mixes up his strategy as the series goes on.

But given their existing track record, I’m expecting them to dare SGA to beat them single-handedly.

Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 assists per game (-186)

Tyrese Haliburton Pacers

When offering a chalky bet like this, I’m not one to hide and present it as something it’s not.

This isn’t a 50/50 bet I’m proposing.

The implied probability sits at 65 percent and I’m proclaiming that this under sits closer to 75.

To Hali’s credit, he’s averaged 9.8 APG thus far this postseason and sat at 9.2 for the regular season.

9.5 isn’t farfetched.

The difference is, he’s up against the most punishing, face-guarding defence he’s encountered all year.

OKC has proven throughout this postseason that they will make life miserable for their most ball-dominant opponent.

Anthony Edwards averaged 5.9 APG in his first two rounds; he finished at 4.6 versus OKC.

Nikola Jokic got up to 10.1 APG against the Clippers (the third-best defence); he finished with 5.9 in the semis.

Ja Morant put up 5.0 APG in three games after dishing out 7.3 a night in the regular season.

This is simply what OKC does.

They are more than capable of suffocating Haliburton with the army of wing stoppers at their disposal.

The ace up my sleeve for this under though?

Haliburton had 63 dimes against New York.

Twenty-eight of them (44 per cent) came via fast break points.

That is an insane proportion considering the league average of points via fast break is 13 to 14 per cent.

The Thunder allowed the least FBPS in the regular season and postseason.

Consider the faucet shut off.