Setting the Pick – Week 22 betting adjustments
Published
There’s just weeks left to go in the regular season, yet no playoff-bound team will be able to coast until the very end.
Denver’s recent losing skid has given Memphis a backdoor shot at stealing the 1-seed.
Milwaukee has built a 2.5-game gap on Boston but have only been top dogs since the end of February.
The play-in tournament continues to create chaos for the middle pack of the Western Conference, with seven teams separated by two games or less.
From a betting standpoint, expect superstars to keep logging heavy minutes. There will be fewer blowouts than seasons past.
As pricing continues to fluctuate, betting on the “make playoffs” market on FanDuel is one to keep an eye on.
LEAGUE-WIDE NOTES
Lakers Nation Rising
Days after the trade deadline, the Lakers were listed at +210 to make the playoffs, sitting six games below .500 and 2.5 games out of the 10th seed.
LeBron James went 3-0 with his new teammates and injected a wave of optimism about their championship upside.
That momentum cooled off after James suffered a foot injury which has sidelined him for more than three weeks.
But the Lakers have persevered, going 6-5 and find themselves half a game out of the play-in.
They’ve had a 2.2 net rating over those 11 games, fifth-best in the West.
Anthony Davis has been holding it down, averaging 26.2 points and 13.0 rebounds during this stretch while role players like Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder have stepped up.
They have the second-ranked defence over this period and benefit from a series of injuries to their competitors.
Luka Doncic has missed five straight games, Zion Williamson looks less and less likely to return this year, and Utah continues to compete without core players Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, and Lauri Markkanen in the lineup.
Should the Lakers get into the play-in tournament with James active, I wouldn’t bet against them to win two straight games – even on the road.
It’s all about the fit. D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley have provided the perimeter scoring pop they so desperately needed, and Jarred Vanderbilt has been a critical cog in their improved defence.
Market to watch: Lakers to make playoffs at +100
PLAYER PROPS
Two-Way Fred
With so many Toronto players coming up in rumours ahead of the deadline, there was an uneasy energy surrounding the team, leading to more hero ball than usual.
With Jakob Poeltl joining his former team and the core players breathing a sigh of relief, the Raptors got back to sharing the ball and playing more cohesively.
Fred VanVleet has been at the forefront, averaging 9.0 assist per game since Feb. 10 versus 6.6 before the deadline.
In addition to his playmaking, he’s found another gear defensively, upping his steals by 50 per cent and leading the entire league post trade deadline with 2.2 steals per game.
In the last two months, he’s dressed for 22 games and only had one where he didn’t record a steal.
As Pascal Siakam has cooled off, VanVleet has kept the Raptors afloat. His leadership on both ends of the court is solidifying their odds of making the play-in.
With his contract up for renewal this summer, expect VanVleet to keep playing at a high level.
Market to watch: VanVleet over steals
Bye-bye Adebayo boards
Keeping to the theme of trade deadline-based betting opportunities, Bam Adebayo’s Defensive Player of the Year stock continued to rise leading up to Feb. 9.
At his shortest price, he was +600 to win the award.
But as we’ve seen with past DPOY winners, this trophy is heavily anchored to team record.
Miami was 31-25 at the deadline but have underperformed since going .500.
Kevin Love signed with Miami on Feb. 20 after being bought out by Cleveland, but he has unfortunately dragged their defence down.
The Heat have ranked 23rd in defensive rating since his arrival but more importantly from a betting perspective, he’s chipping away at Adebayo’s overall production.
In 54 games without Love starting alongside Adebayo, he averaged 10.0 rebounds a game. In the 14 since, he’s dropped to 6.9.
Love has had little impact on their team success, yet they’re continuing to have him in their starting five.
Market to watch: Adebayo under rebounds
FUTURES WATCH
Three-horse MVP race
If MVP were a Shakespearian play, we’re about to enter the fifth and final act.
There are roughly 10 games left, and unless there are any drastic outlier outcomes, there will be no plot twist to wrap this story.
In Act 1, Giannis Antetokounmpo got off the blocks hot leading Milwaukee to a 9-0 opening record.
In Act 2 and 3, Nikola Jokic went on a triple-double binge, lifting the Nuggets into the one-seed and getting as short as -350 to win the award.
In Act 4, the Nuggets tragically lost four straight winnable games, opening the door for charging candidates, Joel Embiid and Antetokounmpo, to re-enter the conversation.
As we enter the final three weeks of the season, NBA scoring leader Embiid looks to fend off his foes sitting -165 on FanDuel for the Michael Jordan Trophy.
For the longest time, Jokic was on pace to three-peat not only due to his triple-double stat lines, but for Denver’s winning ways.
Prior to this losing streak, the Nuggets were seven games clear of the two-seed, only half a game behind Milwaukee and 3.5 games ahead of Philly.
Present day, Denver sits behind both of them.
I’m not sure what Jokic can do statistically to reverse the momentum going against him.
His two main opportunities to flip the narrative come on March 25 and 27 – his final head-to-head matchups against his counterparts.
Embiid deservedly is the favourite at the moment, but The Greek Freak is gaining traction, with Milwaukee on pace to finish with the NBA’s best record.
Jokic got a lot of credit during his second MVP season for dragging the Nuggets to a sixth seed without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
Khris Middleton has missed 44 games this year. Does Antetokounmpo deserve the same treatment?
He’s averaging 31.3 points per game (a career high) and has only missed two games more than Embiid this season.
However this all plays out, it’s going to make for a palpitating finish to the 2022-23 season.
Market to watch: Jokic a fade candidate for MVP