St. Jude Championship First Click: Course history, playoff format and more

Can you believe another PGA Tour regular season has come and gone?

It feels like just yesterday we were handicapping who would win the Tournament of Champions in January and projecting who was in store for a big 2024. 

With an entire regular season in the rear-view mirror, we shift the focus to the playoffs as 75 players will try to win the FedEx Cup over the next three weeks. 

It’s been a few weeks since many of the top guys in this field have played. Meanwhile, we have plenty of guys in the chase pack coming in with great form. 

Much to my surprise, this column was picked up for the postseason. So, join me today, and the next two Mondays as I highlight some key storylines and my first click of the week. 

Let’s get to the action. 

FedEx Cup playoffs format

Before we get to the stats and picks we have to talk playoff format. 

This week, the top 75 players in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up at TPC Southwind. Players will still play a normal 72-hole stroke play event and earn FedEx Cup points to their total. 

Point totals quadruple in the playoffs, so instead of receiving 500 points for a win, this (and next week’s) winner will add 2000 points to their total. 

Following this week’s event, the field of 75 will be reduced to 50. The week after that, we’ll be down to 30 for the Tour Championship. 

Once the final 30 has been set, a staggered scoring format is used at the Tour Championship. The points leader starts the week at 10-under, and the 30th player in the field starts at even-par. I’ll discuss that scoring system in a few weeks. 

Entering this week, Scottie Scheffler holds a lead of 1936 points over Xander Schauffele in second, while Schauffele holds a sizeable lead of 1512 points over Rory McIlroy in third. 

The 1,500-point gap between Schauffele and McIlroy is the same as between third and Will Zalatoris in 49th. 

TPC Southwind course history 

TPC Southwind has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since 1989. Some players (Billy Horschel) in this field have played 42 rounds of competitive golf on this course, and others (Ludvig Aberg) will be seeing it for the first time.   

With that in mind, here are the players who gain the most strokes per round in their playing time on this course. 

(OTT:  Off-The-Tee / APP: Approach / BS: Ball-Striking (OTT +APP) / ARG: Around-The-Green / PUTT: Putting / SG: Short-Game / T2G: Tee-To-Green / TOT: Total)

After missing the playoffs for the first time in his career last year, Justin Thomas returns to the postseason and TPC Southwind in 2024. 

The American has played in this event eight times and has finished outside of the top 20 just once. 

This year, Thomas’ game has been very hot and cold. On the one hand, he has four finishes in the sixth or better. On the other hand, he has just three other finishes in the top 30 and has missed four cuts. 

Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa is already making his sixth appearance in the playoffs and has back-to-back top 20s in this event. 

Coming in at No. 4 in the FedEx Cup standings, a win for Morikawa this week would go a long way into him catching Xander in second. 

The winning formula 

It’s been just two years since the FedEx St. Jude Championship was moved to this golf course. 

There are a few things I have noticed. 

• Both winners (Will Zalatoris and Lucas Glover) are American. 
• Zalatoris and Glover aren’t known for their putting. Both were outside the top 100 in strokes gained putting the year they won at this course. 
• In 2022 Zalatoris ranked second on the PGA Tour in approach putt performance, while Glover in 2023 was ninth. 
• Zalatoris gained strokes on the field tee to green in the 10 events leading up to his win, Glover gained T2G in six of the seven prior to his. 
• Both Zalatoris (T20, T21) and Glover (CUT-Win) played in the two tour events leading into the playoffs. 

FIRST CLICK 

Just because I gave you five trends I’ve noticed doesn’t mean I will follow all of them. After all, water always finds its level. 

That's why I feel comfortable deploying someone who isn’t an American as my first click this week. However, he checks every other box. 

Jhonattan Vegas: 

Is not an American 
Sits outside of the top 100 (166) in putting 
Is Second on the PGA Tour in approach putt performance this year 
Has gained strokes T2G in six straight starts 
Played in the two tour events leading into this week (Win-T61) 

Vegas is currently 150-1 this week outright, but my first click is slightly shorter in a friendlier market. 

This week my first click was Vegas 110-1 to win without Scheffler, Schauffele and Rory McIlroy. 

Scheffler and Schauffele have been head and shoulders better than everyone else in the world for most of 2024, and I’m not eager to wager on almost anyone to beat them in a 72-hole golf event. 

With Vegas entering the week 68th in the FedEx Cup standings, he’ll need a big week to keep his season alive and I don’t see why he can’t, considering how he’s been hitting the ball lately and all season. 

Vegas ranks 13th in this field SG: T2G looking at everyone’s last 36 rounds, he also is fourth on tour in greens in regulation percentage. 

I’ll also take a small victory lap and point out I tipped Vegas at 75-1 before his win two weeks ago, and I’m coming into this week on the heels of chasing Aaron Rai at 30-1. 

Win the event, or come second to one of the big dogs. Let’s stay hot, Vegas.