Grading the Jays at the halfway point

We have officially moved past the midpoint of the baseball season. The Blue Jays are 45-39 and in fourth place in the AL East. If the season ended today, they would be the third wild-card team in the American League.

It isn’t exactly where the team wanted to be at this point, but it could be worse. Remember, the oddsmakers gave the Jays the second best shot of winning the World Series prior to the season. That’s why we play the games.

So many things can happen to teams during a season. Injuries and underperformance can ruin the best of expectations, while overperformance with a little luck and good timing can lead clubs to exceed expectations.

You never really know what can happen. We base projections on the predictability of the talent on the roster. But this sport can be unpredictable, especially when it comes to health.

The other factor that can affect teams during a season is the schedule. Sometimes it’s not who you play, it’s when you play them. Even the worst of teams can beat the best teams if they are hot and playing well.

There are clubs every year that always seem to run into other teams just when they’re hitting on all cylinders. That is out of anyone’s control. Some teams are playing better when they are playing within their division. That is always preferred because those can be seen as a double victory –a win for your team and a loss of your closest competition. Some teams can’t buy wins within their division.

The bottom line is that there are plenty of factors that can affect the standings. Every single team deals with adversity over the course of the season. The hope is that the cream rises to the top over a 162-game schedule and things like scheduling, timing, injuries and luck balance out for everyone.  

Grading the Jays 

The Jays came into the season with a reputation for having an explosive offence and a very deep starting rotation. Analysts considered the Jays’ rotation as one of the best in the game with the emergence of young ace Alek Manoah, the reliable workhorse Jose Berrios, the free-agent signing of Kevin Gausman, the healthy return of Hyun Jin Ryu and the addition of Yusei Kikuchi, a power left-handed arm with upside. Offensively, they were thought to have one of the most high-powered lineups in the game.

The Jays have underperformed those expectations. Here are my midseason grades for each component of the team:

Offence: B

Otto Lopez George Springer Toronto Blue Jays

The offence is ranked third in the American league in runs per game but there is plenty of room for improvement. The only hitter who is having a career year so far is Alejandro Kirk. Every other hitter has had better seasons in the past. In 2021, the Jays led all of baseball in home runs (262) and OPS (.796) by a wide margin. They are third this season in homers (108) and second in OPS (.756). 

Infield: B

Toronto Blue Jays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still a threat and run producer but his numbers this year are down from last season. That’s mainly because the book is out on him, and pitchers are just pounding the bottom of the strike zone against him. Bo Bichette has had some moments and streaks but hasn’t been as consistent with his hard contact this year. Matt Chapman is not Marcus Semien and hasn’t quite been the hitter we saw in Oakland. Santiago Espinal is a solid professional hitter but not a major run producer. He is a nice blender in the lineup. There is plenty of room for improvement from this group in the second half.

Outfield: B-

Teoscar Hernandez Toronto Blue Jays

George Springer isn’t hitting for the same average as we have seen in the past, but his power stroke is still a threat. Lourdes Gurriel is hitting for average, but he still doesn’t walk much or do much damage with his contact. Teoscar Hernandez was hurt for a bit and hasn’t exploded with his power bat yet. I expect a big breakout second half from the Jays’ outfield.  

Catchers: A

Toronto Blue Jays' Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk has developed into a run-producing, two-way catcher.  He has evolved into legitimate protection behind Guerrero. White Sox manager Tony La Russa chose to pitch to Guerrero with a base open to avoid facing Kirk. Danny Jansen had shown power (seven HR) prior to his injury. Rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno puts together quality at-bats for such a young hitter.

Starting Pitching:  B-

Jose Berrios Toronto Blue Jays

Manoah and Gausman have pitched to very high levels, but Berrios and Kikuchi have been very inconsistent. Ross Stripling has filled in adequately for Ryu after his season-ending injury. The starting pitching’s ERA (4.04 ERA) is ranked eighth this year after being third in ERA in 2021. 

Bullpen: C-

Jordan Romano Toronto Blue Jays

The bullpen is ranked 13th in ERA (4.25 ERA). The pen has 15 blown saves in the first half this season, while they had a total of 18 last season. The Jays have played more close games this season. In fact, they’ve played more games decided by one run this year (19-12), than all last season (15-15). 

After looking at the numbers, the fact that the Jays have the sixth best record in the American League is not such a bad thing.

I fully expect the Jays to perform better in the second half. They will get improved individual performance while playing a slightly easier schedule. They have already played a lot of games within the tough AL East. 

There is no need to panic or harshly judge the Jays to this point. This is just a baseball season playing out. A snapshot at any one time can display a team that is amazingly good or extraordinarily bad. So far, the Jays are good enough, with plenty of hope for improvement from within and from outside the organization via trade.

I believe the Jays will be a playoff team even if they don’t make any significant additions to their roster. That being said, I would add at the trade deadline to further ensure that path. This would be a year that I would go all in on this roster. I would look for trades that not only ensure October baseball but would help them win in a short series. 

I would add one more impactful starting pitcher (Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas), ideally one I could control for at least next year, too. Then I would add a lefty and a veteran right-handed reliever. I would also look to add one more impactful bat. That player could play left field or serve as a designated hitter.

You never know what next year will bring. There have been plenty of teams with big expectations that falter. The Jays have a chance to not only make the playoffs this season with this roster but win once they are there. The window is open now for the Jays to pursue a championship – even with the slightly disappointing first half. They need to go for it.