Bieber back on a big-league mound

If you haven’t heard, Blue Jays trade deadline acquisition Shane Bieber is scheduled to pitch Friday night in Miami. He will be activated from the injured list to make his Blue Jays debut.

Toronto acquired him at the trade deadline even though he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. In fact, Bieber hasn’t thrown a pitch in major-league game since April 2, 2024.

So, why should you be excited, and why did the Jays think Bieber was worth trading for even though he wasn’t ready to pitch?

It’s because of who he was before the surgery and who the Jays expect he will be now that he is major-league ready again.

Bieber was an elite pitcher and the Cy Young Award winner in 2020 prior to his injury. In a time when wins have become less defining of a pitcher’s quality – victories are considered more of a byproduct of the quality of the team than any individual – Bieber is a guy who wins. He has the ability to pitch deep in games and secure a winning decision.

Bieber, 30, is 62-32 in his career with a 3.45 ERA. He has held opponents to a .236 batting average, .281 on-base percentage and .380 slugging percentage. Those are extremely dominant numbers. He has a 133 ERA+ in his career, which is 33 per cent better than the average pitcher.

The tall righty has always been a strike-throwing machine. He strikes out more than the average major-league pitcher and walks fewer too. He is a ground-ball pitcher who keeps opponents in the ballpark. He can control the running game, indicated by the fact he has only allowed 36 stolen bases – with 22 caught stealing and five pickoffs – in his career. He is a Gold Glove winner as well. Bieber does all of the things that the great pitchers do.

He throws over the top in his delivery and is excellent in repeating his release point, regardless of pitch type, which helps his deception to hitters and his ability to stay consistently in the strike zone. He has above-average extension toward the hitter as well, which affects the perceived velocity of his pitches.

Bieber has a five-pitch mix in his arsenal. He can locate his four-seam fastball with pinpoint command. He averaged 92.5 mph while on his rehab assignment, which is in line with his velocity in his better seasons. It’s the pitch he throws the most – anywhere from 35-40 per cent of the time. He also has a cut fastball to get inside on left-handed hitters and off the sweet spot for right-handers. He uses that anywhere from 15-35 per cent of the time, depending upon the game and opponent.

Bieber’s swing-and-miss pitches are his slider and knuckle curve. He does an excellent job working ahead in the count, with a well-above average first-pitch strike rate of 65 per cent. By working ahead in the count, he can expand the zone and get hitters to chase. The knuckle curve has a big, sharp 12-6 break and is his primary chase pitch. He starts it in the strike zone, then breaks it out to get hitters to chase.

His slider is the other strikeout pitch. It looks like a fastball as it comes out of his hand, but has late, sharp break. It can induce swings and misses or freeze hitters as it is an unexpected look from his other pitches. He also has a changeup that is his fifth-best pitch and usually just a show pitch to make hitters aware of the speed differential.

What makes Bieber so good is his ability to throw any pitch at any time for a strike. He can adjust during the game depending on what is working that day, and has the ability to sequence his approach to keep hitters off balance as he faces them the second and third time through the lineup.

Bieber looked good in his rehab appearances. He made seven starts and went 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA, totaling 29 innings while only allowing 22 hits and three walks while striking out 37 batters. He held opponents to a .216 /.243/.343 slash line. He is back. He has been properly and patiently rehabbed.

I rarely put much on a pitcher’s first start of any season, especially if he’s returning to a big-league mound post-surgery. But I fully expect Bieber to give the Jays a chance to beat the Marlins tonight. Moving forward, I expect him to be one of the Jays’ top three starting pitchers and a key cog in the playoffs.

If he is fully back, he will be the reason the Jays will be the favourites to win the AL pennant. This was a great acquisition by Jays general manager Ross Atkins

Lauer bumped to the bullpen

Eric Lauer Toronto Blue Jays

With Bieber joining the rotation, Jays manager John Schneider and his staff had a decision to make. They could go with a six-man rotation for some number of turns or remove someone from the rotation and stay with five starters.

They chose to remove Eric Lauer. It is not what I would have done.

I would have gone with a six-man rotation until the middle of September. I would prefer to maintain the emotions of my clubhouse while giving every starter a bit more rest during the most gruelling time of the year. Plus, protecting Bieber and Max Scherzer is critical as they are both likely among the first three playoff starters for Toronto.

Lauer has to feel like the odd man out with this decision. I know that he doesn’t have the same pedigree as the other five starters, but he has been excellent for the Jays this season.

A decision like this can cause confusion in a clubhouse. Lauer has indicated that he was told he would only miss one turn through the rotation, so maybe someone else will get bumped for a turn as well. But the Jays play six straight games starting tonight, followed by an off-day and then six more games. The schedule screams for a six-man rotation for at least a couple more weeks.

I would carry the six-man rotation until Sept. 21, even with multiple off-days, because health is the most important thing right now. Toronto plays 13 straight days from Sept. 9-21. At that point, I line up my starters for October.  

The Jays play the Boston Red Sox on Sept. 23-25. If those games mean something in the standings, then it is all hands on deck; regardless of who is starting, everyone else who could be available should be available. The Jays play the Rays the last weekend of the season, and by then should have clinched the division.

These are not easy decisions. Certainly, the Jays have thought it all through and have a plan. Communication to the pitchers is critical so that they all feel valued and needed regardless of the plan.

My playoff rotation would be Kevin Gausman, Scherzer, Bieber and Chris Bassitt in some order. That means Jose Berrios and Lauer go to the bullpen. If the Jays are going to stick with a five-man rotation, I would transition Berrios to the pen at some point to give him the experience of coming in the game in the middle of an inning and pitching on back-to-back days. I think he could be a huge weapon at the end of the game for the Jays in October. Lauer has been a reliever before and understands what it takes.