Jays treading water but badly need improvement in key areas

Just when it seemed the Jays had gained some traction with a three-game winning streak last week, they dropped two out of three to the Guardians over the weekend and it feels like things are slipping away again.

It isn’t just that the Jays lost two out of three, it’s how they lost them. The offence wasn’t productive (again), the pitchers didn’t throw enough strikes and the bullpen failed. Just like good teams find different ways to win, bad teams find different ways to lose.

It’s far too soon to call the Blue Jays a bad team as they are 16-18 and just two-and-a-half games behind the first-place Yankees. All we can fairly do at this stage is look at symptoms.

Offensively, the Jays are 25th in runs per game. They have scored more than the Rockies (6-28), Rangers (17-18), Pirates (12-24) and Angels (13-20). They have scored fewer runs than the White Sox (10-25). The Jays aren’t at the bottom in runs scored but they are when it comes to hitting home runs. They only have 23 homers in 34 games, and their .351 slugging percentage is ranked 27th.

It’s clear that the offence has not been good and will have to be much better if the Jays plan on making the postseason. There is reason to believe the bats will come alive.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t gotten hot yet; Anthony Santander hit 44 homers last year and hasn’t shown his true power thus far; Bo Bichette finally hit his first home run over the weekend and should start to drive the ball; and the remaining cast should be at least a bit better than they are performing.

On the pitching side, the Blue Jays’ 4.24 ERA is ranked 19th. The starting pitching has delivered a 9-13 record and a 4.49 ERA, which is 26th. The bullpen is 7-5 with a 3.91 ERA (16th). These numbers are disappointing because the belief was the Jays would have one of the best starting rotations in baseball. The starters have allowed the second most home runs (33) in baseball. The combined staff is tied for third in homers allowed (48).

If I were to tell you that the Jays would allow more than twice as many home runs (48) as they would hit (23) in the first 34 games, what would you expect their record to be? Certainly not 16-18. Probably 10-24 might be a more accurate portrayal of the disparity.

Defensively, the Jays are eighth in defensive runs saved this season (13). This is a strength of the team so far, which is made better by the addition of Platinum Glove-winning (2023) second baseman Andres Gimenez and the return of Gold Glove outfielder Daulton Varsho.

I think it is safe to say the Jays are fortunate to be two games under .500 considering the paltry offensive production and the below-average pitching that they are getting. They have been outscored by 33 runs so far. Their expected record with that run differential is 13-21. Things will have to get better or they will fade away in the American League playoff picture.

The offence can be better, but questions still linger about whether it’s good enough even if it’s firing on all cylinders. There are only 11 teams that have ever made the playoffs in the history of the game that were last in the league in homers.

The offence certainly won’t be enough with the way the pitching staff is currently performing. But there is reason to hope that the starters will get better. Every starter but Chris Bassitt has underperformed. Plus, the fifth starter spot has been a black hole since Max Scherzer went on the injured list with a thumb injury. The bullpen has been better than last year, but is still in the middle of the pack.

The pathway to the playoffs is extremely narrow for the Jays based upon the first month-plus of the season. If the Jays aren’t going to hit, they need to pitch and defend better than almost everyone else. They don’t need to score a lot, but they need to score enough. Unfortunately, if the pitching continues as it is, it won’t be good enough to win while being supported by such a low-scoring offence on a consistent basis. 

Last year, we saw the New York Mets completely turn their season around in late May and the Detroit Tigers rally in the last two months to make the playoffs. A club’s performance can spike and dramatically turn for the better. The good news is that the Jays can be one of those teams. The bad news is that it is not very common for dramatic turnarounds to happen.

Jays add arms 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Jays signed pitchers Spencer Turnbull and Jose Urena to major-league deals over the weekend.

Turnbull was unsigned after pitching for the Phillies last season. He threw well in 17 games (seven starts) and had a 3-0 record with a 2.65 ERA, but missed the last three and a half months with a lat strain. He won’t be ready to help for a while though, as he has to go to extended spring training in Florida and get stretched out to pitch. He is a nice inventory piece for a team dealing with injuries but he isn’t readily available to help.

Urena made one appearance with the Mets and tossed three innings in a blowout game, allowing seven hits and five runs. He was designated for assignment the next day and now joins the Jays as his eighth team.

Urena will get the start for Tuesday’s series-opener against the Angels. He is an experienced arm but not the answer. He’s a pitcher whose value is in non-high leverage situations. 

Appreciating Judge’s greatness

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Sometimes we only appreciate greatness years down the road when we have some perspective. But there are some talents who are so good that we don’t need time to recognize it. In this Shohei Ohtani era of baseball, other greats don’t really get their full due.

Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge continues to prove he is one of the greatest players of all-time.

In 2022, he set the American League home run record with 62 homers and had a 1.111 OPS. He had an even better season in 2024, hitting .322/.458/.701 with 59 homers and 144 RBI. This season, Judge is hitting .414/.503/.759 with 11 homers and 33 RBI already. He isn’t just a great power hitter. He is a great hitter.

He is so good that it makes me wonder why opposing managers are pitching to him instead of walking him. He only has four intentional walks this year so far. Last year, he was walked 20 times intentionally, but he also had Juan Soto hitting in front of him and Soto had a .419 on-base percentage. That meant that Judge came to the plate with a lot of traffic on the bases, forcing the opposition to pitch to him. Soto is with the New York Mets now. Sure, the Yankees’ first base duo of Ben Rice and Paul Goldschmidt are having good seasons and have gotten on base nicely in front of Judge when given the opportunity, but they aren’t Soto. 

It’s time for Judge to get the so called “Barry Bonds treatment.” Bonds was feared so much that he was intentionally walked 120 times in the 2004 season. He was walked whenever there was an open base. Judge should be treated the same way. 

I want this to happen so we can start to call it the “Aaron Judge treatment.” I think it would be a better strategy for Yankee opponents and a better moniker moving forward.