World Series-calibre Blue Jays proving sample size matters

There is a reason why sample sizes matter in baseball. On any given day, individual players and teams can look like they’re the best, or the worst, at playing the game. It’s a sport especially suited for talk radio discussions because it is built for overreactions in each direction. 

When I was general manager of the New York Mets, we lost the first game in a season and I was driving home after the game and remember hearing a caller on a talk show say, “I see a pattern starting to develop with this team.” I remember thinking, “Don’t you need at least two dots on a piece of paper to start a pattern?”

The 162-game Major League Baseball season can be a roller-coaster ride. What goes up, must come down, and what comes down must goes up. That’s why sample size matters. It allows for peaks and valleys. The hope is that the peaks last longer than the valleys and your team can win far more games than they lose between Opening Day and when the regular season concludes in the fall. 

Now that the Toronto Blue Jays are 25 games into their 2023 season, it is reasonable to consider who the Jays (16-9) are based upon our initial evaluation. I believed the Jays were a World Series-calibre team coming into the season and, so far, I still believe it.

The biggest questions entering the season had to do with the backend of the starting rotation. Could Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi be functionally consistent starters? 

Could Berrios return to the form that he showed as a starter with the Minnesota Twins, which made him so desirable to the Jays? After all, Toronto signed him to a seven-year, $131 million contract extension in November 2021. 

Could Kikuchi finally live up to his potential that led the Seattle Mariners to sign him as a free agent from Japan in late December 2018, and the Jays to sign him to a three year, $36-million contract in March of 2022 after a season in which he went 7-9 with a 4.41 ERA?

Toronto has significant money tied up in both players.

Both starters seem to have righted the ship – Kikuchi is 4-0 while Berrios tossed seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox Tuesday and has improved to 2-3 – and are gaining the confidence they need to sustain success. 

The rest of the rotation has been mediocre to good overall. Kevin Gausman (2-2) has been awesome except for one real clunker. Alek Manoah (1-1) had a couple of disappointing outings which set talk radio afire just two weeks ago. I wrote about the adjustments the 25-year-old needed to make last week.

Manoah made the tweaks and was exceptional in a 3-2 loss to the New York Yankees last Saturday. He looks like himself again, back to pitching like the dependable right-hander who finished third in American League Cy Young voting last season. 

Chris Bassitt (3-2) was very good in his last start against the White Sox (a 5-2 win on Monday) despite tweaking his lower back. 

The Jays’ bullpen has been very good so far this season. Jordan Romano is one of the game’s best and most predictable closers. Erik Swanson is reinforcing why the club desired him so much in the Teoscar Hernandez trade to the Seattle Mariners last winter. He is the swing-and-miss reliever they so desperately needed. There have been some bobbles out of the bullpen, but there always will be. Overall, Toronto’s bullpen pitchers are throwing more quality innings in relief by far than not. 

Offensively, this team is swinging the bats as expected as a group. Brandon Belt and Dustin Varsho haven’t been quite as consistent as the Jays had hoped but they have had big at-bats for the team thus far. The balance they have added from the left side of the plate has been more challenging for opposing managers to match up with. 

Centre-fielder Kevin Kiermaier has made highlight-reel catches and driven in some big runs. 

George Springer hasn’t quite gotten going yet but that is good news. He will hit because he always has, and it will likely come at a time when someone else in the lineup cools off a bit. That’s what happens on good teams. 

Third baseman Matt Chapman has been one of the most productive players in the game. His off-season adjustments are proving to be on point. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are exactly who they have taught us they are – legitimate sluggers. 

The catching tandem of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk are providing as much offence as any club’s backstops in the game. 

The manager, John Schneider, has done a good job overall managing the depth and versatility on his roster. He hasn’t made knee-jerk reactions when hitters haven’t hit or pitchers have struggled. He is keeping in mind that sample size matters. There is a belief in baseball that players play to the back of their baseball cards. This means that a player’s past performance indicates what is a fair expectation and if he is struggling now it just means he may be a game or two away from a hot streak that will help get his stats to where they normally would be.

The Jays have played good baseball to start the season, despite playing so many games on the road while ensuring the stadium renovations were complete. They have shown to be good road warriors in the past going back to the COVID-19 years when they played in Dunedin and Buffalo.

It is good that they have started this way considering that the Tampa Bay Rays have started this season in remarkable fashion at 21-5, leading the American League East and the majors. The Jays can still win this division and I believe they will.

Guerrero off to a strong start

Toronto Blue Jays

Players teach us what to expect from them. Guerrero built up our expectations in the minor leagues. His rookie season would have been very good for most players, but we were all left wanting and hoping for more. He then gave us what we all wanted: the monster break-out season. In 2022, Vlad was very good. But it wasn’t the MVP season that he is ultimately destined for. 

So far, in 2023, he has been great. He is driving the baseball with huge exit velocities. He is showing the ability to generate launch angle on certain pitches in certain counts. He is coming up big in the clutch. His plate discipline continues to improve as he has learned when the opposition is pitching to him and around him. It is hard to remember how young Vladdy still is. He is still improving and learning to make adjustments. 

Guerrero’s statement about never signing to play in New York was provocative. It stirred things up in a way that I never really expected from the 24-year-old. It was a statement that separated him from almost every major league player. 

Most players would love to play in New York because the money spent seemingly always gives the Yankees a chance to win. He didn’t say it out of fear of the media, or the fans or big expectations. He said it because New York isn’t good enough for him. He said it because he wants and deserves something that he feels is better for him. He said it out of family pride.

It was a gutsy statement that will forever earn him boos in the Bronx, and it’s something that he seems to relish so far. Vlad Jr. is becoming a man and soon he will be “The Man.”

This season has a real chance to be the Blue Jays, and Vlad Jr.’s, year!