McKenna is the argument against a high-profile offer sheet this summer
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There's been no shortage of talk about offer sheets ahead of the NHL off-season, but there's a reason for teams who aren't assured of a 2026 playoff spot to pause the thought of using one.
That reason is phenom Gavin McKenna.
The Medicine Hat Tigers star appears to be a lock to be selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft and next year’s draft lottery could be the most anticipated since the Edmonton Oilers won the right to select Connor McDavid in 2015.
While restricted free agents such as Matthew Knies, Evan Bouchard, Gabriel Vilardi and Mason McTavish have been teased as potential offer sheet candidates, signing one of them would likely come at the cost of losing a chance at McKenna.
Any unmatched offer sheet at a salary above $4.68 million would force the signing team to hand over their 2026 first-round pick as compensation. With that, would come losing a potential ticket in the McKenna lottery.
“McKenna could’ve been the first pick last year, he’d be the first pick this year and there’s no doubt who the first pick is next year,” TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button said of McKenna in his first look at the draft class in November. “He is one of the very best players outside the NHL. What I see in him is an IQ off the charts and a brilliance that has no limits.”
Somehow, the 17-year-old winger's stock has only risen since then.
This season, McKenna set the record for the longest single-season point streak in the Canadian Hockey League in the 21st century. He posted a point in 54 straight games, finishing his third season in the Western Hockey League with 41 goals and 129 points in just 56 games. He added nine goals and 38 points in 16 playoff games as Medicine Hat were crowned WHL champions.
“We’re talking about the best junior player in Canada,” Button said when McKenna's point streak hit a record 51 games. “I don’t toss around the title of ‘best junior player in Canada’ softly, it’s not hyperbole. He’s the best junior player in Canada. When you have that type of star power and ability to impact the game, it’s beyond impressive.”
The Whitehorse, Yukon native has two goals and four points in three games at the Memorial Cup, helping the Tigers clinch their spot in the final. In a rare occurrence, he was held without a point in Tuesday's 3-1 win over the London Knights, but could get another chance against the OHL powerhouse in the final.
Leafs, Sens among teams out of offer sheet, McKenna markets
The Ottawa Senators are expected to be out of both the offer sheet market and the McKenna sweepstakes with the team planning to keep their 2025 first-round pick and forfeit their 2026 first-rounder as a result of league discipline.
Barring deals to re-acquire their picks, the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights are out of both markets, as well. Toronto sent their 2026 first-round pick to the Boston Bruins to acquire Brandon Carlo in March and the Panthers will also be without their pick after sending it to the Chicago Blackhawks in the Seth Jones trade earlier this year. As part of the trade Florida is free to trade their 2026 in another deal, but that would lock in the Blackhawks landing their 2027 first-rounder and the Bruins acquiring their 2028 first-round pick as part of the Brad Marchand trade.
The Golden Knights gave up their first-rounder in the 2026 draft to the Calgary Flames as part of landing Noah Hanifin.
The Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning all traded their 2026 first-round picks at the trade deadline this year, but all kept protection in the deals in case of a high selection. Edmonton's pick is top-12 protected, while the other three are top 10 protected.
So, will we see offer sheets?
With the NHL salary cap on the rise, New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald said earlier this month he is expecting to see more offer sheets around the NHL.
The NHL salary cap is set to jump $7.5 million on July 1 to a total of $95.5 million. It is expected to increase to $104 million in 2026-27, and $113.5 million in 2027-28.
Fitzgerald did not mention whether he intends to pursue one, but told reporters he expects offer sheets to be more prevalent league-wide.
"It's a tool to improve your team, but one, you have to have the cap space, two you probably have to strategically target a player or players to do it, knowing full well there's no way a team can match because they don't have the cap space," Fitzgerald explained during his season-ending news conference. "A lot of teams have a lot more cap space. I think teams will try to do it, I just don't know how successful they'll do it.
"And I think the most important part of offer sheets are the player has to want to move. He's gotta want to come to your team. That period where RFAs you can talk to them, they probably have to initiate it themselves."
Two offer sheets were signed last season, both by the St. Louis Blues targeting the Oilers. The Oilers elected not to match on the offers to defenceman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway, receiving second- and third-round picks in the 2025 draft by the Blues.
The dual offer sheets by the Blues were the first signed in the league since the Carolina Hurricanes pried Jesperi Kotkaniemi from the Montreal Canadiens with a one-year, $6.1 million offer. The Canadiens received first- and third-round picks from the Hurricanes, who matched the five-year, $42.27 million offer sheet the Canadiens signed Sebastian Aho to two years prior.
Those are the only four offer sheets signed in the past decade.
Signing a significant offer sheet this year will come at the risk of a team potentially missing out on a generational talent in McKenna.