Powered by:
Betting Breakdown: Can Leafs get past Game 1 demons against Senators
Published
For the first time in over two decades, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators meet in the NHL Playoffs.
For Toronto, a trip to the postseason has suddenly become par for the course. The team’s streak of nine consecutive trips to the playoffs is the best active streak in the NHL.
Meanwhile, the Sens are bringing playoff hockey back to Ottawa for the first time since 2017.
Toronto is a -200 favourite to advance in the series and -162 to win Game 1.
Earlier this week, we examined a few betting markets FanDuel offers on the series. Today, we are back to dive into some Game 1 storylines before handing it off to TSN’s Senior Betting Analyst, Domenic Padula, for his best bet of the game.
LEAFS GAME 1 STRUGGLES
Despite all the success getting to the playoffs in recent years, Game 1s haven’t been very kind to the Maple Leafs over the past nine years.
Since 2017, Toronto is 1-8 in Game 1s of the NHL Playoffs and 1-7 in the opening game of the first round.
Their only win in the opening game of a series came in 2019, when they won 4-1 over the Boston Bruins in a series they would lose in seven games.
Toronto to win Game 1 and the series is priced at +100 on FanDuel, while Ottawa to win Game 1 but Toronto to advance is +370.
The Sens to win Game 1 and the series is +310 on FanDuel, while Toronto to win the opening game of the series, but Ottawa to advance is +500.
OTTAWA’S RECENT LEAF DOMINATION
Outscoring the Maple Leafs 9-3, the Senators dominated the season series this year, sweeping Toronto in the three games the two sides played.
Ottawa’s dominance of Toronto dates back to last season, with the Sens holding a 6-1 record against the Leafs since the start of the 2023-24 season.
Linus Ullmark gets the start for Ottawa in Game 1. This season, he is 2-0 against the Leafs, allowing just two goals on 50 shots.
In 13 regular-season game starts against the Leafs, Ullmark is 6-5-1 with a .905 save percentage and a 2.86 goals-against average.
His lone appearance against Toronto in the postseason was a 3-2 loss in Game 2 of the first round with the Boston Bruins in 2023-24.
A SAME GAME PARLAY FOR GAME 1 OF THE BATTLE OF ONTARIO
One big part of Ottawa’s recent success over the Maple Leafs has been the play of Claude Giroux.
The 37-year-old has at least one point in seven straight games and eight of his last nine against Toronto.
He is +164 to extend his point streak tonight in his first playoff game since 2022 with the Florida Panthers. In 95 playoff games, he has 28 goals and 81 points. This will be the first playoff game of his career against the Leafs.
As for Toronto, William Nylander leads the way for Leaf skaters with a point in four of his last seven games against Ottawa.
The 28-year-old has 33 points in 39 career games against the Sens and is -170 to add to his total tonight.
So, before I hand it off to Mr. Padula, I will lock in a two-leg Same Game Parlay of Giroux and Nylander to register points tonight at +290.
DOM’S BATTLE OF ONTARIO GAME 1 BEST BET
This is it. Don’t get scared now.
Leafs Nation has waited through a long year for this. “All that matters is what they do in April.”
Well, hopefully the most important time of the year begins with a Happy Easter for Toronto hockey fans.
Remember, the fans aren’t the only ones who waited for this.
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly understand what’s in front of them.
Now they finally get another opportunity to put the disappointments of years past behind them and prove they can lead the Maple Leafs to the Stanley Cup.
They’ve never had more support, either.
Anthony Stolarz has been excellent. Matthew Knies has arrived. Craig Berube’s impact behind the bench has been obvious.
After guiding Toronto to its third division title in the expansion era, the stage is set for the blue and white to make a deep postseason run.
It starts with Game 1 tonight. On paper, the Maple Leafs have the edge in nearly every area.
Toronto can make a statement with a dominant win on home ice tonight and send a message to an underdog Senators team that will be looking for a spark on the road.
Everything has lined up for the Maple Leafs to win Game 1.
What could possibly go wrong?
I’ll take Toronto to win Game 1 at -162 as a FanDuel Best Bet.