Could a potential Karlsson trade land him back in Canada?

Toronto. Edmonton. Ottawa. Is Erik Karlsson’s next, and perhaps final career stop, again north of the 49th parallel?

There’s a different wrinkle for each suitor, but undoubtedly some of the most logical fits for the three-time Norris Trophy winner are in the Canadian markets. (You can add Carolina and Florida to that group to round out a top-five, if you so choose.)  

Pittsburgh isn’t under the gun to trade Karlsson, but with two years left on the 35-year old’s cap-rich contract and little likelihood of contending in that window, Kyle Dubas is preparing for a future deal. As an organization, the Penguins have been vocal about ensuring they remain competitive in the final years of the Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin era, but longer-term, the organization is in desperate need of adding draft picks and prospects alike to return to the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.

The 35-year-old version of Karlsson is much like the 22-year-old version; productive and dangerous offensively with impeccable on-ice awareness, coupled with a fleeting and oft-challenged defensive game. Karlsson would need the right structure, defence partner, and deployment insulation to reestablish himself as a difference-maker.

While Karlsson has put some grim defensive play on tape in the last few years with San Jose and Pittsburgh, his offensive contributions (both at even strength and on the power play) are so significant, he’s still a valuable contributor. Using Goals Above Replacement as a unit measure for total production, Karlsson’s still a big-time contributor measured to his peers:

Of note, Karlsson’s played 82 games in three consecutive seasons after some durability concerns previously with the Sharks. And over that three-season stretch, he’s averaged 70-points per-82 games played, still a top-ten scorer at the position. The other side of that coin? In part because of his own defensive woes and in part because of shoddy goaltending behind him, Karlsson’s been a net-negative at even-strength, with the Sharks and Penguins being out-scored 263-to-260 (-3) with him deployed.

His current contract (and the corresponding $11.5 million cap hit) are a major problem. But if the Penguins are willing to retain a chunk of that salary, Karlsson becomes an intriguing idea for a team looking for some offensive pop on the blueline. That brings us to a triumvirate of fits in Canada, starting with the Maple Leafs.

Why Toronto? The team’s defensive improvements have come at the cost of some offensive pop in recent years, and the loss of Mitch Marner in the forward group is going to strain scoring even further. Notably, Toronto saw slippage in their power-play production last season, finishing eighth in rate-scoring behind Utah. Morgan Rielly has shown to be a capable quarterback on the man advantage, but speculation about his long-term status with the Maple Leafs, and coupled with $5 million in cap space and a playoff-calibre core still in tow, you wonder if Brad Treliving can find a fit for Karlsson in Toronto if the Penguins are picking up a big piece of his salary.

And if Toronto were to consider moving on from Rielly and his $7.5 million cap hit as part of this broader organizational retool, Karlsson would be one of those players who could short-term replace his offensive contributions.

Why Edmonton? Adding more offensive firepower to this Western Conference juggernaut would seem silly at first blush, but there are two compelling reasons to consider it. One, the Oilers might be able to solve a contract issue of their own as part of a bigger trade – 30-year-old Darnell Nurse and his $9.2 million cap hit have limited Edmonton’s cap flexibility, and his on-ice struggles (particularly in the postseason) remain an issue. Two, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – likely the two best players on Earth – still benefit from another playmaker on the ice, especially from the blueline.

Using Evan Bouchard as a comparable, McDavid sees a five per cent bump in rate-scoring when playing with Edmonton’s best puck-mover; Draisaitl, a whopping 24 per cent. If the financial numbers can be fleshed out (Edmonton has close to zero cap space, unlike Toronto), Karlsson could prove to be a fantastic redundancy for a Stanley Cup contender.

Why Ottawa? Perhaps it’s somewhat nostalgic, and perhaps it made more sense before acquiring right-shot defenceman Jordan Spence from the Los Angeles Kings. But Karlsson’s infamous exodus from a market he loved had much to do with the previous ownership group, and this is a Senators team finally on the upswing, having ended an eight-year playoff drought last April. Ottawa’s core group of players is no longer young, their window to contend is now, they have over $4 million in cap space to play with, and top-four defenceman Nick Jensen’s contract expires at the end of the year. Could Karlsson finish out his career in Ottawa? Crazier things have happened.

Pittsburgh may elect to push this trade decision towards the in-season trade deadline, or even as late as next season – as the remaining years fall off his contract, he becomes a more attractable option league-wide.

But a deal feels likely one way or another, and I would not be surprised to see Karlsson finish his career where it started: in Canada.  

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey