Summer Talent Tiers: Centres

Our multi-part Summer Talent Tiers series wraps up this week, finishing at the centre position.  

Click through for our deep dives on the goaltending, defensive, and winger depth charts posted earlier this month. Now, it’s time to analyze the centre position, with thoughts for all 32 teams below:

Anaheim Ducks (T4) - Ducks fans must be over the moon with 20-year-old Leo Carlsson. The second-overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft already has two seasons under his belt, even tallying 20 goals (with 25 helpers to boot) during the 2024-25 season. Succeeding at such a young age, especially at the centre position, suggests his long-term potential remains sky high. One area Carlsson needs to improve on in year three: his faceoff win rate is low enough (41 per cent) that it becomes a liability.

Boston Bruins (T4) - One of the open questions at training camp will be whether it’s Pavel Zacha and Elias Lindholm who centres David Pastrnak’s line. Both were successful in their minutes with Boston’s big scorer last year, but for Boston to contend, it will have to be the “other” pivot – anticipated to play with wingers like Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson – to provide firepower behind Boston’s top line.  

Buffalo Sabres (T3) - If Tage Thompson moves back to centre (he played both centre and wing a season ago, owing to some injury considerations), this can be a relatively deep group down the middle for Buffalo, and I’m anticipating the Sabres give that another look. But it also hinges on another risk, that being the general durability of Josh Norris. Norris has flashed as a top-six player in both Ottawa and Buffalo during his career, but staying on the ice has been a problem. Since the 2021-22 season, Norris has missed 148 games of action, or been available just 55 per cent of the time.

Calgary Flames Nazem Kadri

Calgary Flames (T4) - I am starting to wonder if Nazem Kadri has put together one of the more under-appreciated careers of the past decade. He just put in a single season personal best with 35 goals in 2023-24, but it’s the persistent offensive production that puts the shine on Kadri in the twilight of his career. Kadri has a whopping 225 goals since the start of the 2016-17 season, sandwiched between Florida’s Alex Barkov and Vegas’ Mitch Marner.

Carolina Hurricanes (T3) - Perhaps the top-end scoring won’t materialize with Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but it’s increasingly clear he’s an impactful two-way forward. He’s been a regular fixture inside of Carolina’s middle six for some time now and the Hurricanes are +28 in even-strength goals with him on the ice in that same window, in large part because Kotkaniemi and his line stifle the game defensively.

Chicago Blackhawks (T3) - Chicago knows it’s a “one-man band” at centre right now with superstar Connor Bedard, but there is real hope that 21-yea-old Frank Nazar can effectively man a second line as soon as this year. How confident are the Hawks? Despite having played just 56 games, the Blackhawks extended him on a seven-year deal last week. If Nazar’s development takes another step forward, this centre group in Chicago has considerable upside potential. 

Colorado Avalanche (T1) - After his acquisition at last year’s trade deadline, Jared Bednar affixed new centre Brock Nelson to a mix of Valeri Nichushkin, Martin Necas, and Artturi Lehkonen. But there are two new weapons available to the Colorado coaching staff that may mix things up amidst Colorado’s top six – the return of Gabriel Landeskog, and the signing of Victor Olofsson.

Columbus Blue Jackets (T4) - At even strength, no forward duo in the league was more dominant in the league than centre Sean Monahan and winger Kirill Marchenko. The duo was +23 in goal differential in just over 600 minutes played, or a +2.6 goals per 60 minutes played advantage to the benefit of Columbus. For comparison’s sake, the second-best duo was Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov in Tampa Bay, who were +1.9 goals per 60 minutes played.

Dallas Stars (T1) - You would be hard pressed to find a team happier with a given draft pick than the Dallas Stars and their selection of Wyatt Johnston 23rd overall in the 2021 NHL Draft. His 89 goals eclipse anyone else selected in that draft year; for context, he’s 27 goals clear of second place Matty Beniers (62) in Seattle.  

Detroit Red Wings (T4) - Dylan Larkin has put together one heck of a streak amidst the Red Wings’ rebuild, with four straight 30+ goal seasons and 126 goals total. That puts him in a class with the likes of Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk (130), Utah’s Clayton Keller (128), and New Jersey’s Jack Hughes (123).

Edmonton Oilers (T1) - The Oilers two-headed monster of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl down the middle is so lethal and the minutes so one-sided, it’s one of the only instances you’ll hear me marginalize the importance of depth. How dominant? McDavid and Draisaitl have combined for a jaw-dropping 366 goals since the 2021-22 season, which would account for 45 per cent of the entire Chicago Blackhawks team scoring over the same timeframe.

Florida Panthers (T1) - Florida shored up its core this summer, highlighted by a major extension of centre Sam Bennett to the tune of eight years and $64 million. Whether the negotiation was friendly or contentious, Bennett truly had all of the cards – his 15 goals during last year’s playoff run carried the Panthers to their second Stanley Cup.

Los Angeles Kings (T2) - Anze Kopitar has already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. The only question is: when will he be eligible? Kopitar has aged like a fine wine and still maintains top six-calibre scoring (to say nothing of his defensive prowess) even at 37 years old. Of note: Kopitar’s contract expires at the end of the season.

Minnesota Wild (T2) - Marco Rossi was perhaps the biggest holdout risk of the summer, but the Wild secured their future at the position last week with a three-year, $15-million extension for the 23-year-old pivot.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal Canadiens (T5) - The position group in Montreal hinges in part on the durability of Kirby Dach, a fantastic player when he’s on the ice, but a player who has missed significant time over the years due to injury. Over the past three seasons, Dach’s availability rate is just 47 per cent. One way or another, Montreal needs to find a reliable second weapon behind Nick Suzuki.

Nashville Predators (T5) - Veteran Ryan O’Reilly, 34, is going to have to carry this otherwise thin group, and while the offensive production hasn’t slowed (53 points in 79 games in 2024-25), last season presented some flashing yellow lights. O’Reilly has been long considered one of the league’s elite two-way players, but the defensive numbers broke down last year, and Nashville was actually outscored by 10 goals with his line on the ice – that group typically featuring Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist. While I think that breakdown is more about Juuse Saros underperforming for the second year in a row,  O’Reilly’s own expected goal rates against (2.7 per 60 last season) have started to move in the wrong direction, and that is a trend worth monitoring.

New Jersey Devils (T2) - Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier is a simply nasty one-two punch at the centre position and it’s one of the key positional advantages the Devils have inside of the Metro Division. Of note, Hughes is coming back from a significant shoulder injury – reports indicate he’ll be ready for training camp at full health.

New York Islanders (T3) - The return of Mathew Barzal to full health should be a lift for this team down the middle. In just 30 games last season, the Islanders outscored teams 26 to 12 (+14) with his line on the ice – dominance even by first-line standards, and the type of control you see from playoff-calibre teams. The issue? In all of those minutes without Barzal, including the 52 games he missed, the Islanders were outscored 158 to 143 (-15).

New York Rangers (T2) - New York had no problem generating offence with J.T. Miller on the ice last season. After being traded to Broadway in January, Miller and the Blueshirts averaged 3.6 goals per 60 minutes at even strength, a number inside of the top 15 and comparable to that of Pastrnak. Worth monitoring: Do the Rangers slide Mika Zibanejad out to the wing as they did in spurts last season, or does he serve as a high-end third-line pivot behind Miller and Vincent Trocheck?

Dylan Cozens Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators (T2) - Dylan Cozens is on the short list of players under the most pressure to deliver this season. Many talented players have fled the Buffalo Sabres organization over the years to thrive elsewhere, but Cozens’ results in Ottawa after the mega trade were a mixed bag. Cozens flashed offensively in 27 games with the Senators, but the defensive numbers remained grim – of forwards who saw at least 20 games of action, Cozens was last in rate goals conceded (3.3 per 60) and expected goal rates (2.9 per 60). The off-puck play must improve if he wants to solidify himself as the second option behind the venerable Tim Stutzle.

Philadelphia Flyers (T4) - Joining Cozens in the “under major pressure to deliver” category is Trevor Zegras, now a top-six centre for the rebuilding Philadelphia Flyers. Trade speculation swirled around Zegras in Anaheim for years, owing in part to his desire to play in the middle of the ice. The Ducks wanted to give those centre minutes to Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish. The positional competition in Philadelphia after Sean Couturier isn’t nearly as fierce.

Pittsburgh Penguins (T2) - While Sidney Crosby still looks like one of the NHL’s best centres at the age of 38, Evgeni Malkin has shown real signs of slowing down. Malkin is in the final year of his contract and with Pittsburgh staring down the barrel of a considerable organizational rebuild, you have to wonder if he’s yet another potential trade deadline candidate, a la Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, or Erik Karlsson. One reason to hold out hope for a bounce-back season? New running mates. Malkin and most common linemate Michael Bunting – now with the Nashville Predators – were outscored at a staggering rate 30-to-11 (-19) in 2024-25.

San Jose Sharks (T4) - At the centre position, San Jose is a mirror image of Chicago – one bona fide superstar at the top of the lineup (in this case, Macklin Celebrini), and an extremely promising prospect right behind him in the form of Will Smith. Smith played both centre and wing in his rookie year (with limited faceoff opportunities, notably), but San Jose’s vision for now is developing him into a dominant second-line pivot behind Celebrini.

Seattle Kraken (T4) - Few players turned in more concerning seasons last year than Chandler Stephenson. Vegas pulled him out of Washington as a checking-line forward and turned him into a speedy middle-six dynamo, which turned around his entire career. But when Stephenson was on deck for a significant contract extension, Vegas walked, and Seattle moved in on a seven-year deal. Stephenson’s year one was grim, to say the least. His 3.1 goals conceded per 60 minutes played was a career worst, and this was not solely poor goaltending behind him — Seattle won just 37 per cent of the expected goal share with his line deployed all season. A year two turnaround is desperately needed here.

St. Louis Blues (T3) - The possible line combinations intrigue heavily here inside of the top six, and I’m most curious to see if Jim Montgomery ties blue-chip wing prospect Jimmy Snuggerud to the hip of Robert Thomas as he did in the postseason. Thomas’ line last year was dominant, maintaining over a 60 per cent goal share with Jake Neighbours and Pavel Buchnevich.

Tampa Bay Lightning (T1) - Full credit to the Bolts organization, who found what appears to be a late bloomer of sorts in centre Nick Paul. Paul showed flashes as a younger prospect in Ottawa, but tough contract negotiations eventually ended with a deal to swap him for winger Mathieu Joseph. Since joining the Tampa Bay ranks, Paul has averaged 22 goals per 82 games played, fantastic scoring output from an otherwise bottom-six Swiss Army knife.

John Tavares Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs (T1) - The triumvirate of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and newly acquired Nicolas Roy can play with any team in the league. But it’s critical Matthews turns last year into a statistical outlier. A 33-goal season on 12.5 per cent shooting would be a career year for 95 per cent of forwards in the NHL, but for Matthews it was his worst on both fronts. His Ovechkin-like scoring reliability sets the expectation bar incredibly high, and from a team perspective, that bar needs to be even higher in 2025-26 — replacing the exited Mitch Marner’s production will have to come by committee, starting here.

Utah Mammoth (T3) - Similar to Dallas nailing the Wyatt Johnston draft pick in 2021, it’s safe to say the then-Arizona Coyotes earned an A+ grade for their Logan Cooley pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. His 45 career goals lead the entire draft class, and only two forwards – Cooley and Montreal’s Juraj Slafkovsky, taken first overall – have surpassed the 100-point mark. Cooley’s emerged as one of the league’s most dynamic young forwards and a key reason why Utah is positioning itself as a playoff contender this season.

Elias Pettersson Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver Canucks (T3) — With Miller gone and Elias Pettersson trying to pull himself out of a slump, the Canucks are going to need a sizable impact from Filip Chytil. After being traded to Vancouver mid-season, Chytil saw a notable increase in usage, playing nearly 17 minutes a night (a career high). I expect that number to continue creeping upward into 2025-26.

Vegas Golden Knights (T1) - The Golden Knights finished fifth in league scoring last year and the biggest reason why was the playmaking ability of Jack Eichel. Eichel has become one of the league’s deadliest players with the puck on his stick and his 66-assists last year were sixth best in the NHL. One of the five players ahead of him? That would be new teammate and likely linemate Marner (75).  

Washington Capitals (T3) - Pierre Luc-Dubois is coming off of a career year on several fronts. His individual production (20 goals, 46 assists) bested his numbers in prior seasons with Winnipeg, and his primary assists alone (21) were top-15 league-wide and at par with Draisaitl. Most impressively? In all of his eve- strength minutes (primarily centering Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson), the Capitals were +31 in net goals, fourth best in the NHL.

Morgan Barron Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg Jets (T3) - The return of Jonathan Toews will grab all of the headlines to start the year, and deservedly so. But how about a little love for depth centre Morgan Barron? Winnipeg conceded just 1.3 goals for every 60 minutes Barron was on the ice last season, the best goals against number for any forward in the league. Some of it is quality of competition, and some of it is having a world-class goaltender in net, but Barron is starting to solidify himself as one of the league’s better checking-line centres.

That concludes our Talent Tiers series. Around the corner: the opening of training camps and the NHL preseason.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, PuckPedia