Baylor made it no secret; in their minds they belonged in the College Football Playoff. Now, having to settle for the Cotton Bowl, the fifth-ranked Bears will try to prove their point against No. 8 Michigan State on New Year’s Day.

Baylor finished their regular season at 11-1, a record they believed deserved a CFP spot. College football’s highest-scoring offence followed up their lone loss of the season to West Virginia with five straight wins to end the year – including two wins over top-15 ranked teams.

That upset loss to West Virginia came just seven days after the Bears’ most impressive win of the year – 61-58 over No. 9 TCU. It was also the only game of the season in which their high-powered offence fell short of 28 points.

Led by senior quarterback Bryce Petty, the Baylor offence averages just shy of 49 points per game and ranks fifth in average passing yards. Petty threw for 3,305 yards this season with 26 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He added five rushing touchdowns, though he averaged just 1.8 yards on the ground over 77 attempts.

The Baylor offence is not an unbalanced attack, however. Their rushing attack ranked 23rd, with redshirt sophomore Shock Linwood rushing for more than 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns this season.

Even with a chip on their chip on their shoulder and a dynamic offence, Baylor will have no easy time handling their frustrations against the Spartans.

The Spartans can also score points at a rapid clip and have a balanced offence of their own. Michigan State’s lowest point of the season was 27, which happened twice. On average, the Spartan offence scored 43.1 points per game while totaling over 450 yards.

Junior quarterback Connor Cook threw for 2,900 yards with 22 touchdowns to six interceptions. He also benefitted from division 1’s 24th-ranked rushing attack led by senior Jeremy Langford. Langford rushed for 1,360 yards this season and 19 touchdowns, including multiple scores in each of Michigan State’s final six games.

Still, the Spartans rank below the Bears in almost every offensive statistical category. Where the Spartans hold the edge, is on defence.

The Spartans average 20 points against per game, 12th in the FBS. They also rank sixth against the run, 25th against the pass and seventh overall. Baylor ranks 43rd in points against, with 24 allowed per game, and 40th in overall yards allowed.

Both defences, however, have also had their struggles throughout the season.

The vaunted Spartans defence allowed 46 points to Oregon in the second week of the season and 49 points to Ohio State in early November. Those two games were also Michigan State’s only games of the season against top-15 ranked teams.

In addition to their shootout against TCU and loss to West Virginia, Baylor allowed 46 points and over 600 passing yards to Texas Tech in their penultimate game of the regular season.

Michigan State went 1-2 against top-25 teams this season, while Baylor went 3-0 in such games. Playing on New Year’s Day, both teams feel they have something to prove.

Baylor enters this contest as just three point favourites, but playing with a chip on their shoulder and a point to prove, the Bears should be the popular pick to win the Cotton Bowl.

Eye on Sunday

QB Connor Cook, Michigan State

Between Petty and Cook (should he enter the draft), the Michigan State product will likely be the first of the two hear his named called in late April. Though Cook often fails to put up the numbers Petty does, he’s viewed as the better NFL prospect. However, against a Baylor defence that excels against the run, Cook’s true value will be put to the test.

QB Bryce Petty, Baylor

For a consistent quarterback, Petty’s draft status has consistently fluctuated. He’s been ranked as warranting a late second-round pick in the NFL Draft by some and a fourth or fifth-round pick by others. Against a defence as stout as Michigan State, Petty will have a chance to make an argument for the former or the latter.

DE Shawn Oakman, Baylor

Oakman – 6’8, 275 pounds – is well known for his ability to disrupt plays and make tackles in the backfield. Oakman has the ability to change games. He totalled 17.5 tackles for a loss this season along with three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and three passes defended. He also had nine sacks in 11 games. Oakman is a projected top-15 pick, should he declare for the NFL Draft.

CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State

Waynes was named a first team All-Big 10 cornerback after his impressive 2014 campaign and was also a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, awarded to the best defensive back in college football. The redshirt junior has the ability to lock down wide receivers, although his impact against Baylor – whose leading receiver and third-leading receiver were separated by just seven catches - may be limited. Waynes is in the first-round pick conversation.

DE Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State

Like Waynes, Calhoun was named a first-team All-Big 10 player and an All-America candidate. Calhoun had 6.5 sacks this season resulting in 79 yards lost for opposing offences. He also made 11 tackles for losses. The 2013 Big 10 defensive lineman of the year is ranked among the top-50 prospects for the NFL Draft.