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TSN Baseball Analyst Steve Phillips offers his thoughts on the Jays starting rotation, trading hitting for pitching, the David Price sweepstakes and more.

1) With some of the qualifying offers settled around Major League Baseball and Marco Estrada locked up on a two-year deal, who should the Toronto Blue Jays target in free agency to help improve their starting pitching situation? If the season started today, what do you think the Blue Jays' rotation and bullpen would look like?
 

Signing Estrada was huge for the offseason plan for the Jays. Not to mention that I believe Estrada took less to stay in Toronto. I believe he left at least a third year on the table if he had explored free agency. The Estrada signing now allows them the ability to go in a number of different directions.  
 
It appears that the Jays have more interest in Zack Greinke than David Price, which I completely understand.  Although older, Greinke has a better delivery and superior secondary pitches than Price and therefore will age better over the life of the contract.  
 
I believe the Dodgers and Giants will negotiate the Greinke contract beyond where the Jays will be able to go.  So the Jays should shift their sights to the following pitchers in this order of preference based up talent and contract value:  Jordan Zimmermann, John Lackey, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo and Doug Fister.
 
I believe the Jays rotation will look like this: Marcus Stroman, RA Dickey, Marco Estrada, one of the above pitchers not named Price or Greinke, and Drew Hutchison (signing a contract under the threat of non-tender).   
 
The bullpen will include Roberto Osuna as the closer, Aaron Sanchez as the 8th inning pitcher. Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup will be the lefty otions out of the pen. Liam Hendriks, Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz and Steve Delabar will all be possibilities as well. The Jays need to add a veteran to the bullpen. A guy like Ryan Madsen, Fernando Rodney or Chad Qualls would be good options.  
 
I know there is discussion about moving Aaron Sanchez back to the starting rotation. I support the consideration but the Jays need more depth to start the season than they had last year. The plan can’t just be Sanchez is a starter and add one veteran reliever to replace him in the pen. They Jays need an extra starter and reliever with some experience for depth. I personally believe that it is better for Jays and Sanchez if he stays in the bullpen.  
 
2) The biggest strength of the Jays last season was an offence that easily outpaced the rest of the league. Should they be looking to trade from that position of strength to improve one of their weaknesses and who would you consider to be untouchable on the roster?
 
I think the Jays have to consider being creative in building for 2016. This would include the consideration of trading from an area of strength (offence) to improve an area of weakness (pitching).  
 
They can’t trade Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista because they have no trade rights because of their 10/5 status (10 years in majors and five years with current club). I loathe placing an untouchable label on any player because I don’t like unnecessary limitations on building a roster. That being said, Josh Donaldson would be the most untouchable player for me.
 
Other than the big three bats, everyone is available for trade consideration, including Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki. The Jays may regret the last few years of the contract for Martin so at some point, they should consider getting out from underneath it. It doesn’t have to be this offseason but better to get out a year too early instead of a year too late. Tulowitzki didn’t seem like he is comfortable yet as a Jay. With the development of Ryan Goins and the recovery of Devon Travis, the Jays could go young up the middle and trade Tulo. His contract is a bit prohibitive but it should at least be a consideration as it could reallocate some of the big money from offence to pitching.
 
The Jays could possibly get a mid-rotation starter if they traded Ben Revere. Dalton Pompey could take over in left to replace him. A year ago, Adam Lind brought back Marco Estrada in a deal with the Brewers. I could see a Revere deal possibly helping the rotation that way.  
 
I am sure plenty of clubs would want Ryan Goins, Devon Travis and Kevin Pillar. I am not sure any trade makes sense because they would not bring back the kind of pitcher to justify deal. Pillar would draw the most legitimate interest but moving an affordable quality offensive and defensive centerfielder would cost at least a number two starter.  
 
3) Free agent starter David Price is one of the most sought-after pitchers - with many desirable possible destinations. The Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs are reportedly among the interested teams. Which of these locations do you think would be the best fit for Price and how much do you see his final contract being worth and for how many years?
 
In addition to the teams mentioned I think the Boston Red Sox will be in the mix for David Price too.  Especially now since they traded a pool of prospects to address the closers role with Craig Kimbrel.
 
I think the Giants and Dodgers are going to fight over Zack Greinke and I don’t expect the Dodgers to lose that battle. There will always be one more Dodger dollar than Giants dollar. The Giants may pursue Price after they lose out on Greinke but I don’t think they can sign him by making him their second choice. I don’t think the Dodgers pursue Price because they would then have a rotation of Price, Clayton Kershaw, Brett Anderson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Julio Urias (young prospect). They are all lefty pitchers. That doesn’t make much sense for the Dodgers despite their president Andrew Freidman having had him in Tampa Bay.  
 
The Cardinals tend to avoid offering the most money to any pitcher. I just don’t think they are going that big for the lefty.  
 
I believe it will come down to the Cubs and Red Sox. The Sox are far more desperate for an ace than the Cubs are. So I believe Dave Dombrowski, Red Sox president of baseball operations, who had Price in Detroit, will sign the lefty to a seven-year, $200M contract.  
 
4) Colby Rasmus and Matt Wieters became the first players to accept one-year qualifying offers. Why do you think these two players accepted what everyone before them - and other players in their situation - rejected? What factors do GMs consider before deciding to extend qualifying offers to players?
 
I was not surprised that Colby Rasmus or Matt Wieters accepted the qualitfying offers. Nor was I surprised that Brett Anderson of the Dodgers did as well.  
 
The only reason for a player to accept the qualifying offer of one year for $15.8 million is because they don’t think they can get a better deal out in the market. Remember that once a player has a qualifying offer extended to him, any team signing the player has to forfeit a first round draft pick (unless draft pick protected, then second round). If the player and his agent don’t believe they can get a multi-year deal worth rejecting the substantial one-year salary, then they accept the offer.  
 
From a general manager's perspective, you extend the qualifying offer if you are sure that the player will get a multi-year contract from somebody in the market. If you are not sure that will happen, then a general manager should only extend the QO if they are comfortable to pay the player that amount of money for one year. If you aren’t sure the player can get the multi-year deal and you don’t think he is worth the $15.8M for one year, then you can’t extend the offer.  
 
I have no idea why the Astros made the QO to Colby Rasmus. He was a semi-regular player in 2015. He hit for a low average but does have power (26 homers plus six in six straight games in the playoffs). The salary makes Rasmus the highest paid Astro in 2016. He will be a semi-regular player again next season. Jeff Luknow, the Astros GM, said he was happy to have Rasmus back, but what is he supposed to say? The QO sure seemed like a mistake.  
 
Brett Anderson accepted the QO because he couldn’t expect a multi-year deal. I think the Dodgers knew that but figured paying Anderson a bit more for one year was better than committing to him or anyone else on a multi-year deal to be the club’s #4 starter. Anderson had pretty good season (10-9 3.89 ERA) but his health history scares teams away from making him a long-term offer. I think the Dodger made the offer knowing he would likely take it.  
 
Matt Wieters is an intersting case. He worked his way back from Tommy John surgery but didn’t have the kind of season he would have liked. It took him longer than expected to get back on the field and he just never got going.  The Orioles extended the QO wondering what Wieters and his agent Scott Boras would do in a very light catchers market. The O’s knew there was a chance that Wieters might not find what he was looking for in the market place and he could accept the offer. They were going to be okay with either decision.   
 
Two players who may regret not accepting the qualifying offers are Ian Kennedy and Daniel Murphy. Murphy rejected the Mets offer anticipating he will receive the first multi-year deal of his career. I hope he is right. He is a professional hitter with little power and speed. He is not a run producer. Plus he is below average defensively. He had a great playoff performance with seven homers in six games but that is not who he is. If he doesn’t warrant a multi-year deal, he may have burned himself from signing with anyone.  
 
Ian Kennedy was 9-15 with a 4.28 ERA in 30 starts in 2105 and gave up 31 home runs. Although he had a 3.63 ERA in 2014, he had a 4.91 ERA in 2013. I would never offer him a multi-year deal that is better than his taking the $15.8M value of the QO. I believe that come next Opening Day that Ian Kennedy will be unsigned because of his rejecting the offer. He and his agent made a mistake walking away from the sure thing.  
 
5) The New York Yankees are hoping to improve their team by floating closer Andrew Miller as a trade chip, looking for young starting pitching or outfield help in the deal. What value do you think Miller has on the open market and what would that move tell you about where the Yankees are trying to position themselves in the off-season?
 
The Yankees evaluated the free agent closer market and saw how weak it was. They realized that with Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances that they have commodities that would be coveted by other teams. Betances is younger than Miller and therefore Cashman has floated Miller’s name as a consideration for clubs needing a closer.
 
The Yankees don’t want to trade prospects to improve their team and believe it or not, they are functioning with a budget now, too. So rather than just spending money for whatever they want, they are trying to be creative.  
 
The problem for the Yankees is that when word got out that Miller was available, other clubs followed suit with their own closers. The Red Sox gave up a huge package of talent to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres. Aroldis Chapman is available, too. Chapman only has one year left before free agency, which will impact his deal. Now Ken Giles in Philadelphia may be available as are Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon.  
 
Miller could gain the Yankees a #2-#3 starter, an outfielder or a couple of blue-chip prospects. This could help the major league roster directly or indirectly. The Yanks are getting older and are trying to get younger and more athletic. Brian Cashman understands that sometimes you have to rob Peter to pay Paul. He may trade from his strong bullpen to help his weaker rotation or the outfield.  
 
If there was any doubt, these are no longer George Steinbrenner’s Yankees. His sons, Hank and Hal, are running the club more like a business. They have to consider things today that they haven’t had to in a long time.