Sputtering Jays have to solve Bauer in Game 3

Well, so much for best laid plans. 

The Blue Jays should have beat the snot out of soft tossing, contact heavy, home run heavy Josh Tomlin. He’s given up a whopping 36 homers in 170 innings this season and if you’re a home run hitting team like the Jays, you couldn’t ask for much better matchup. You can imagine my surprise that the Jays made Tomlin look like Roy Halladay circa 2010, mustering only three hits and striking out six times. 

Then again, the Red Sox, who arguably had this year's offensive version of last season’s Jays, should have beat Tomlin as well. They are now enjoying their offseason, courtesy of a sweep by the red-hot and rolling Indians who’ve yet to be defeated this postseason. 

I’m not saying Tomlin is a bad pitcher. Indeed, the Indians wouldn’t even be in the postseason if Tomlin had not stepped up. But, beating a pitcher you match up well with is fundamental to winning in the postseason. We knew the Jays would struggle with Corey Kluber, but we accepted this because we knew that the Jays had the upper hand against the rest of the Indians rotation. Tomlin was the "take" part of this give and take. And yet, the Jays gave—gave away a game they should have won. 

I'm sure they'd do some things differently if they could. But, If the Jays want to see Tomlin again, they’re going to have to change their approach, and they’re going to have to do it quickly, starting with Trevor “Drone Accident” Bauer. 

Bauer, like Tomlin, was not meant to be an anchor in the Indians’ rotation this season. And yet, here he is, a lynchpin to the Indians success. Bauer has worked a 4.26 ERA this season, but his Fielding Independent Pitching is a 3.99, mostly because he’s walking fewer and striking out more. 

Here are Bauer’s career numbers against the Jays. 

Not bad. Not great. But, considering that Bauer’s opponent is Marcus Stroman, who is putting up numbers against the Indains like this...

Blue Jays fans should feel pretty confident. 

Of course, I said that with Tomlin, a pitcher with no X-factors. Excuse me if I proceed with caution considering that Stroman vs. Bauer has several of them. 

The first is that Marcus Stroman is pitching on 13 days rest - 13! He’ll be fresh, that’s for sure, but will he also be rusty? I could slap a table here to show you his numbers on six days rest, but what’s the point? There really is nothing to go off of as this kind of rest between outings is unprecedented.

Bauer, on the other hand, has pitched in the ALDS - 4.2 innings to be exact, allowing three runs. He may not be the most effective starter the Indians have, but at least he’s pitched in the last two weeks!

Then there is the issue of Bauer's little finger. Bauer, in possibly the most millennial of baseball accidents, injured his finger fixing his pet drone. He cut his pinky on the top of the digit. Besides being this postseason’s freak accident soundbite of choice, it really shouldn't be an issue since I can’t think of one single pitch you throw off the top of your pinky finger. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Bauer did throw something that needed the top of his pinky. Take a look at this repertoire: 

That’s a lot of pitches. A lot. Too many, in fact. Which is why his command is suspect at times. But it does stress one point: the Jays have to be willing to drive the ball where it’s pitched, something, outside of Josh Donaldson, they’ve not shown a strong propensity for doing so far this ALCS. 

I’ll be blunt: The Jays MUST beat Trevor Bauer because a back-against-the-wall scenario via Corey Kluber rematch is not a desirable scenario. What’s more, the Jays must get to Bauer immediately because the Indian’s will have a rested Andrew Miller to throw at them should they wait a couple turns of the rotation to strike and Miller absolutely owns the Jays right now. 

As was the case with Tomlin, the Jays need to eat what they are offered instead of hunting fastballs to crush. Which brings us to our final and most important X factor here: the Jays offence, which MUST show up against Bauer or this will be a short and embarrassing ALCS. Bauer is going to show a lot of variety. If the Jays can't make an adjustment and solve him quickly, the Indians will be free to unload a fresh pen of weapons on them. Worse, if Bauer gets deep into the game, they’ll have that same pen ready to support Kluber in game 4.