TSN.ca's Southwest preview: Will the Rockets take flight?

Ahead of the regular season tipping off on Tuesday night, TSN.ca looks at a burning question facing every NBA team.

In the Southwest, the Houston Rockets hope there's enough ball to go around for James Harden and Chris Paul, the Dallas Mavericks might have struck draft gold with Dennis Smith Jr. and the Memphis Grizzlies embark on the post-Grit-N-Grind era.

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Did the Mavs grab the steal of the draft in Smith Jr.?

Highly touted NC State point guard Dennis Smith Jr. was reportedly certain he was going to be taken by the Orlando Magic at No. 6. Instead, they took forward Jonathan Isaac and Smith fell to the Dallas Mavericks at No. 9. Given his raw athletic ability and his impressive play during the summer, he might be the steal of the draft.

Last summer’s free-agent prize, Harrison Barnes, proved by averaging 19.2 points per game in major minutes that, while he fits into the future in Dallas, he isn’t the future by himself. Dirk Nowitzki is back for a 20^th season but is the franchise’s past. So the void in Dallas is Smith’s to fill.

Coming out of college, there were some questions about his effort on the defensive end. That may explain why he slipped a bit in the draft. But Smith’s play in six Summer League games was convincing. He averaged 17.3 points a night to go along with 4.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists. If he can put up numbers anywhere near that in the regular season, the Mavericks may have a future star on their hands.

The other big off-season move the Mavericks made was re-signing centre Nerlens Noel to a one-year, $4.1 million deal after he appeared in 22 games for them following a deadline deal last season. He averaged a career-low 8.7 points per game and doesn’t appear to be the shot blocking force he was initially thought to be when he came into the league in 2014.

While there’s still time for Noel to sort things out, 2017-18 is a vital year for the 23-year-old. The Mavericks are getting a player with lots of talent on a one-year deal with even more to prove – a perfect spot to be in for most teams.

Despite some appealing young pieces, the Mavericks don’t have enough talent to be much better than their 33-49 record from last season. With 15 playoff appearances in the last 17 seasons, Mavs fans should have some patience – for now.

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Can Harden and Paul co-exist in Houston?

The Houston Rockets took a huge step back in 2015-16. After a disappointing 41-41 regular season and a first-round playoff loss, they wiped the slate clean. Dwight Howard was sent packing. James Harden was moved to point guard. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff was replaced with the offensive-minded Mike D’Antoni, which was a bold move for a team with the NBA’s sixth-worst defence.

General manager Daryl Morey ignored their weaknesses and focused on their strengths. And it worked. While their defence got worse last season, their offensive efficiency exploded. They shot the three-ball way more than anyone else in the NBA, averaging 40.3 attempts from beyond the arc per night. No other team averaged more than 33.9.

But the Rockets didn’t stop re-tooling, and made quite possibly their biggest splash yet this summer, bringing in point guard Chris Paul.

The move was made despite Harden’s emergence as a top-tier play-maker. Paul will undoubtedly become the team’s new floor general, pushing Harden back to the shooting-guard spot. While each will spend significant time handling the ball, it’s hard to see either matching their usage rate from a year ago.

The Rockets also made some moves to sure up their defence, bringing in stoppers P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah A Moute. But rest assured – both can shoot the three.

Despite the additions, it doesn’t look like the Rockets are changing much about their style of play. In their preseason debut, the Rockets shot 55 three-pointers compared to just one mid-range shot. So it looks like the new pieces fit just fine in the D’Antoni offence.

Adding Paul to the mix could go one of two ways. Harden could regress with a lower usage rate and the Rockets could struggle to eclipse their 55 wins from a season ago. Harden averaged a triple-double while doing the majority of the ball-handling, so giving the keys to someone else could hurt him.

Or, the addition of Paul could push them over the top and give them the firepower to compete with the Golden State Warriors. Given how powerful the Western Conference is, it’s worth a shot.

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Can the Grizzlies adjust to a new play-style?

For the last several seasons, the Memphis Grizzlies championed the Grit-N-Grind play-style. Defence, rebounding, getting to the free-throw line and pounding it inside all became engrained into the Grizzlies’ throwback play-style. This impressed more than just old-time cigar-smoking coaches. It turned one of the NBA’s smallest markets into a perennial playoff contender.

But that ended when the team dropped their first-round series to the San Antonio Spurs in April. The team let forward Zach Randolph – one of the most beloved players in franchise history – sign with the Sacramento Kings. Gone too was Tony Allen, another player fans loved so much that the team decided to retire his number. Despite seven straight playoff appearances, the Grizzlies never made it past the Western Conference Finals. As great as it was to see old-school basketball succeed in a fast-paced era, it was time for a change.

The Grizzlies have made a commitment to a speedier pace of play under second-year head coach David Fizdale. They had the third-slowest pace in 2016-17, according to Basketball Reference, with only 92.3 possessions per 48 minutes. The NBA’s league average from last season was 96.4, which the Grizzlies haven’t reached in the history of their franchise.

The change will have to start with Chandler Parsons. The seventh-year man out of Florida averaged a career-low 6.2 points per game, a drop-off of 6.5 from his total the year before. Parsons had his best seasons with the Houston Rockets in 2012-13 and 2013-14 when the Rockets ranked in the top-five in possessions per 48 minutes. As a career three-point shooter of 37.7 per cent, Parsons could go a long way toward re-vamping the Grizzlies’ offence. After signing a deal in the neighbourhood of $94 million last summer, he better.

Another X-factor could be guard Ben McLemore, who was handed a two-year deal in the off-season. McLemore struggled in his four seasons with the Kings, shooting 41.7 per cent from the field. A change of scenery could go a long way toward reviving his career that already may be on life-support.

Without any new core players or a new coach, the Grizzlies may struggle to adapt to their new style of play early on. Despite their success over the past decade, it could be hard to see them competing for anything in a loaded Western Conference outside of a low playoff seed.

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Is Boogie a long-term solution for the Pelicans?

The New Orleans Pelicans shocked the league when they traded for DeMarcus Cousins just moments after he stepped off the court in the All-Star Game. This gave the Pelicans arguably the best frontcourt in the NBA when paired with fellow Kentucky Wildcat Anthony Davis. So why haven’t the Pelicans had more success with their dynamic duo?

In 25 games with Cousins, New Orleans was 11-14 en route to a 34-48 finish. There was some improvement after Cousins came into the fold, but maybe not as much as general manager Dell Demps would have liked. Their scoring went from 18^th in the NBA in total points scored without Cousins to 17^th with him. Their defence stayed mostly the same, moving from 22^nd in points allowed to 19^th.

While these changes are welcome, they aren’t as striking as some thought they would be. Spending training camp with the team this time around could help Cousins get more comfortable.

If New Orleans doesn’t take a big step forward in 2017-18 – a difficult task given the strength of the Western Conference – Cousins could walk as a free agent during the summer. While the thought of playing alongside Davis is sure to be appetizing since he isn’t a free agent until 2021, Cousins hasn’t played for a winning team yet in his seven-year career. That’s sure to factor in as well.

Another concern for the Pelicans is Davis’ health. Last season was the only time in his five-year career that he didn’t miss at least 14 games in a season, playing in 75 while averaging a career-best 28 points per game.

The Pelicans brought back point guard Jrue Holiday and added veteran Rajon Rondo. They also brought in defensive-minded guard Tony Allen, who should sure up a defence that allowed the fourth-most three-pointers per game at 10.5.

If the Pelicans struggle out of the gate like they have in seasons past, Cousins will be the subject of trade rumours once again with his free agency looming. While the expectations are high in New Orleans, so is the level of pressure.

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Was a quiet off-season the right call for the Spurs?

The San Antonio Spurs are the most successful franchise of the NBA’s modern era since the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls. They won 60-plus games last season for the third time in four years. They were just one of two teams to hold opponents to below 100 points per game.

Most notably, they built a 23-point lead on the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals and were in control before Kawhi Leonard’s season ended abruptly with an ankle injury. From that point on, the Spurs weren’t the same and ended up falling in four games.

Considering all of their success, they didn’t do a lot in the off-season. And they didn’t have to. The usual suspects of Leonard, Manu Ginobili, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker and head coach Gregg Popovich are all back.

One of the few moves they did make was bringing in veteran forward Rudy Gay, who will likely be expected to come off the bench for the first time in his career. Assuming Popovich is able to keep Gay’s volume shooting to a minimum, he could be a nice piece off the bench.

San Antonio did lose guard Jonathan Simmons to the Orlando Magic, who emerged as a useful role player in 78 games last season. But at three years and $20 million, Simmons sticking around was never realistic. Swingman DeJounte Murray is expected see more minutes in his place.

Something the Spurs will need to overcome is Parker’s quadriceps injury. He isn’t expected back until February, which will force backup Patty Mills to take the reins for the first few months of the season. Parker’s production dipped to 10.1 pointers per game and 4.5 assists. Compared to Mills’ 9.5 and 3.5 totals from off the bench last season, it isn’t a tall order to replace. If Mills struggles, the Spurs will find a way to adjust their rotation like they always do.

The Spurs are ultimately built to do one thing – finish what they started in the Conference Finals before Leonard got hurt. Things weren’t broke, so why fix them? Given the track-record of Popovich, they’re as good a bet as any to take down the champs.