Powered by:
Morning Coffee: My full betting card for Super Bowl LVIII
Published
The stage is set for the biggest sports betting event on the calendar.
Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas is just over 48 hours away.
In terms of betting options, FanDuel has really elevated the spectacle to another level with a long list of Super Bowl game props, player props and novelty props.
In case you missed it, FanDuel has a market that allows members to bet on either side of the coin toss at -104.
In addition to heads or tails, FanDuel also has markets up for the coin toss winner, whether the coin toss winner will win the game, and whether the same team will win both the coin toss and the game.
That’s four different markets focused on the coin toss alone.
And it’s only the tip of the iceberg in terms of the number of props that FanDuel has available for Super Bowl LVIII.
According to FanDuel, the over/under for the number of total Canadian viewers is set at 17.5 million.
I’ll be very interested to see what percentage of the viewers that tune into watch Super Bowl LVIII on TSN and CTV place a wager or two at FanDuel.
If you have a wager that you want to recommend, make sure you find me @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.
If you are looking to add to the entertainment value with a couple of recommended plays, you can find my full card for Super Bowl LVIII below, including one new play added.
This is the Morning Coffee for Friday February 9th, 2024.
My Full Betting Card For Super Bowl LVIII
Here is my full list of the FanDuel Best Bets for Super Bowl LVIII that have been featured in this column over the past two weeks:
Kansas City Chiefs To Win +118
Patrick Mahomes 25+ Rushing Yards
Deebo Samuel 50+ Receiving Yards
SGP: Travis Kelce 50+ Receiving Yards + Isiah Pacheco 50+ Rushing Yards
This morning, I’m going to add one final FanDuel Best Bet to complete my card for Super Bowl LVIII.
I’ll take Pacheco over 15.5 rushing attempts at -132.
In case you missed my Thursday column, I explained why I believe the Chiefs will lean heavily on Kelce and Pacheco on offence.
I felt comfortable going with 50 receiving yards for Kelce and 50 rushing yards for Pacheco as decent floors for a Same Game Parlay.
After reviewing the props for both players, I feel confident that Pacheco over 15.5 rushing attempts is worthy of a FanDuel Best Bet designation.
So far this postseason, Pacheco has averaged 21 rushing attempts per game.
He handled 24 carries against the Miami Dolphins, 15 carries against the Buffalo Bills, and then 24 carries against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
Despite being held to 2.8 yards per carry in Baltimore, Pacheco has still averaged 4.0 yards per carry this postseason.
The Chiefs are primarily an 11 personnel team, but Andy Reid has raised the number of 12 and 13 personnel on offence in the playoffs, with a higher run frequency when they are in 13 personnel.
The outside zone is the second-most popular run concept that the Kansas City offence executes.
On the other side of the football, the 49ers defence allowed a 51 per cent success rate on rushes outside of the tackles this season, which is the third-worst mark in the entire NFL.
This is an ideal match-up for the Chiefs to target.
In their Divisional Round win over the Green Bay Packers, the San Francisco defence conceded 6.0 yards per carry to Aaron Jones on 18 carries.
In the NFC Championship Game win over the Detroit Lions, David Montgomery gashed the 49ers for 6.2 yards per carry on 15 attempts, while Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 3.8 yards per carry on 12 attempts.
There’s no doubt that Reid will have reviewed that film and he will scheme to take advantage of the mismatch with a strong rushing attack against a suspect run defence.
Pacheco should be in for another heavy workload against the 49ers.
I’ll lock in Pacheco over 15.5 rushing attempts as my final FanDuel Best bet for Super Bowl LVIII.
Full Super Bowl LVIII Betting Card
Kansas City Chiefs To Win +118
Patrick Mahomes 25+ Rushing Yards
Deebo Samuel 50+ Receiving Yards
SGP: Travis Kelce 50+ Receiving Yards + Isiah Pacheco 50+ Rushing Yards
Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rushing Attempt