PGA Championship First Click: Can Koepka go back-to-back again
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The second major championship of the men’s 2024 season gets underway this week at Valhalla Golf Club, which means another edition of our First Clicks column.
Most weeks, we jump into this space and highlight one name to consider in the outright market ahead of Signature Events on the PGA Tour. This week, since it’s a major, we’re going above and beyond.
I’m going to give you one name in the outright market and one name to be the first-round leader.
Before we get to the selections, I’ll highlight a few key storylines and some stats and trends to help you make your picks this week.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is back in action this week after taking off the past few weeks to celebrate the birth of his first child.
His +400 odds are some of the shortest we’ve seen any golfer have entering a major on the men's side in quite some time. That number represents an implied probability of 20 per cent.
I believe only a handful of players can win this event. So, I’m comfortable playing guys at shorter prices despite Scheffler and Rory Mcllroy holding a lot of win equity at the top of the board.
But for now, let’s get to some stats and trends.
PGA Championship Trends
Here are five trends ahead of the 2024 PGA Championship.
Number 1: Nine of the past 10 golfers to win the PGA Championship had already finished in the top 20 or better in the event before winning it.
Number 2: Eight of the past 10 winners have played in at least five PGA Championships before winning.
Number 3: Seven of the past 10 PGA Championship winners all had a Top 5 or better finish in one of their four starts before the event.
Number 4: Seven of the past 10 winners were ranked in the Top 20 on Data Golf.
Number 5: Six of the past 10 winners had a win in the last calendar year before winning the PGA Championship.
There are just three golfers who check every box on this list: Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Matsuyama.
This is the fourth time the PGA Championship will occur at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville. However, it’s just the first time since 2014, and only 35 players in the field this week teed it up at this course in 2014.
So, this week, let’s take a look at the leaders in strokes gained at PGA Championships since that 2014 championship.
PGA Championship Trends
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zalatoris | 8 | 0.75 | 1.66 | 2.41 | -0.04 | 0.54 | 0.5 | 2.37 | 2.91 |
| Brooks Koepka | 40 | 0.81 | 1.09 | 1.9 | 0.31 | 0.65 | 0.96 | 2.21 | 2.86 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 14 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.56 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.97 | 2.67 |
| Jason Day | 38 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 1.29 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.93 | 1.78 | 2.22 |
| Justin Rose | 38 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.95 | 0.16 | 1.06 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 2.17 |
| Rory McIlroy | 38 | 1.01 | 0.73 | 1.75 | 0.33 | -0.1 | 0.23 | 2.08 | 1.98 |
| Viktor Hovland | 16 | 0.06 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.41 | 0.6 | 1 | 1.35 | 1.95 |
| Collin Morikawa | 16 | 0.59 | 0.98 | 1.57 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 1.71 | 1.95 |
| Rickie Fowler | 36 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 0.88 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1 | 1.58 | 1.88 |
| Dustin Johnson | 30 | 0.7 | 0.39 | 1.09 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.61 | 1.33 | 1.7 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 20 | 0.98 | 0.5 | 1.48 | -0.15 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 1.32 | 1.7 |
| Justin Thomas | 30 | 0.29 | 0.81 | 1.09 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.6 | 1.42 | 1.69 |
| Jordan Spieth | 38 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 0.89 | 0.48 | 0.3 | 0.79 | 1.37 | 1.67 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 40 | 0.25 | 0.68 | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.61 | 1.4 | 1.54 |
| Patrick Reed | 36 | 0.07 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.75 | 0.41 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.52 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 32 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 0.95 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 1.37 | 1.51 |
| Jon Rahm | 16 | 1.05 | 0.22 | 1.27 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 1.41 | 1.51 |
Brooks Koepka has dominated this event in his career. The five-time major winner won this tournament for the third time last year, and his six Top 10s in the event are the most he has in any major.
Koepka has never missed the cut at a PGA Championship.
Meanwhile, Will Zalatoris’ major resume is undoubtedly the best among any player in the field who hasn’t already won one.
Zalatoris has played in 11 major championships and has finished inside the Top 10 in seven of them.
He has played in this event twice, tying for eighth in 2021 and finishing runner-up in 2022.
Speaking of major resumes, here is a look at the strokes gained leaders in the four majors since COVID-19.
Major Resume
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | 4 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 2.15 | -0.5 | 1.92 | 1.42 | 1.65 | 3.57 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 58 | 0.9 | 0.99 | 1.88 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.79 | 2.4 | 2.61 |
| Will Zalatoris | 35 | 0.68 | 1.06 | 1.74 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 0.74 | 1.92 | 2.47 |
| Rory McIlroy | 60 | 1.11 | 0.58 | 1.69 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.57 | 1.96 | 2.16 |
| Jon Rahm | 64 | 1.01 | 0.51 | 1.52 | 0.19 | 0.3 | 0.49 | 1.72 | 2.07 |
| Collin Morikawa | 58 | 0.52 | 0.94 | 1.46 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 1.58 | 2 |
| Xander Schauffele | 60 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 1.25 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.78 | 1.65 | 1.98 |
| Cameron Smith | 60 | -0.11 | 0.74 | 0.62 | 0.19 | 0.97 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 1.77 |
| Viktor Hovland | 53 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 0.45 | 0.65 | 1.17 | 1.64 |
| Cameron Young | 32 | 1.19 | 0.36 | 1.55 | -0.16 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 60 | 0.24 | 0.86 | 1.1 | 0.65 | -0.26 | 0.39 | 1.76 | 1.51 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 58 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.68 | 0.48 | 0.3 | 0.78 | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| Patrick Reed | 62 | -0.2 | 0.38 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 0.77 | 1.29 | 0.71 | 1.39 |
| Brooks Koepka | 54 | 0.26 | 0.65 | 0.92 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.99 | 1.38 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 56 | 1.12 | 0.36 | 1.49 | -0.24 | 0.1 | -0.14 | 1.24 | 1.32 |
| Dustin Johnson | 54 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.98 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 58 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.72 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 0.6 | 0.98 | 1.3 |
Bryson DeChambeau’s name appears on both lists. In six starts at the PGA Championship, he has two finishes inside the Top 5.
Earlier this year, DeChambeau made headlines at the Masters when he and his 3D-printed iron set were in contention on Saturday as the leaders made their way down the back nine.
Unfortunately for DeChambeau, his aggressive style came back to bite him, and he ejected from the contention before we even got to Sunday.
BEST IN THE FIELD
If you don’t want to lean into previous PGA Championship/majors, allow me to present the 15 best players in this field for 2024 according to the strokes gained data.
BEST IN THE FIELD
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 39 | 0.96 | 1.3 | 2.26 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.72 | 2.93 | 2.85 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 41 | 0.54 | 1.35 | 1.89 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 2.11 | 2.61 |
| Sebastian Soderberg | 39 | 0.18 | 0.64 | 0.83 | 0.13 | -0.37 | -0.24 | 0.96 | 2.08 |
| Xander Schauffele | 44 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 1.36 | 0.37 | 0.4 | 0.78 | 1.74 | 1.96 |
| Dean Burmester | 38 | 0.82 | 0.46 | 1.29 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.4 | 1.41 | 1.91 |
| Jon Rahm | 25 | 1.02 | 0.19 | 1.2 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.56 | 1.53 | 1.76 |
| Rory McIlroy | 44 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 1.49 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 1.59 | 1.74 |
| Talor Gooch | 21 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 1.18 | 1.29 | 0.43 | 1.61 |
| Keita Nakajima | 24 | -0.3 | -0.51 | -0.81 | -0.12 | -0.46 | -0.58 | -0.93 | 1.6 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 32 | 0.12 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.03 | 1.19 | 1.22 | 0.59 | 1.51 |
| Thriston Lawrence | 48 | -0.22 | 0.24 | 0.02 | -0.07 | 0.46 | 0.35 | -0.06 | 1.51 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 59 | -0.16 | 0.56 | 0.4 | 0.01 | 0.7 | 0.71 | 0.4 | 1.46 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 37 | 0.04 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 25 | 1.02 | 0.11 | 1.13 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 1.3 | 1.44 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 39 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 1.18 | -0.09 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 1.09 | 1.43 |
The beautiful thing about RickRunGood.com, where I get most of my SG numbers from is how many tours the database offers. We can see a few names on this list that aren’t just not household names, but it might be your first time seeing them.
Sebastian Soderberg has been a top-10 machine on the DP World Tour this year. The Swede enters this week on the heels of three consecutive finishes inside the top 5 and has six top 10s in 2024.
Soderberg has played in two majors in his career, missing the cut at 2016 U.S. Open and finishing 53rd in 2022.
The other name on this list that stands out is Keita Nakajima.
Nakajima won the Hero Indian Open on the DP World Tour two starts ago and followed it up with a T11 two weeks ago.
Nakajima has played in four majors in his career, missing the cut in all four.
Tread lightly with these two names. I can guarantee you they won’t win the event, but if you’re looking for value adds at the end of fantasy drafts and DFS these could be two names to keep in mind.
FIRST ROUND LEADERS
Finally, here are the ten players who have gained the most strokes to field in the opening round of a major since 2020.
FIRST ROUND LEADERS
| GOLFER | SALARY | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 13200 | 15 | 0.67 | 1.55 | 2.22 | 0.63 | 0.89 | 1.52 | 2.83 | 3.71 |
| Xander Schauffele | 10900 | 16 | 0.71 | 1.24 | 1.95 | 0.96 | 0.68 | 1.65 | 2.92 | 3.51 |
| Viktor Hovland | 9200 | 15 | 0.54 | 1.42 | 1.97 | 0.52 | 0.8 | 1.33 | 2.45 | 3.19 |
| Will Zalatoris | 9100 | 10 | 0.82 | 1.69 | 2.51 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 2.54 | 2.81 |
| Rory McIlroy | 12000 | 16 | 1.22 | 0.59 | 1.81 | 0.09 | 0.76 | 0.85 | 1.89 | 2.58 |
| Cameron Smith | 9800 | 16 | 0.42 | 0.79 | 1.21 | 0.19 | 1.14 | 1.33 | 1.38 | 2.51 |
| Dustin Johnson | 8000 | 16 | 0.49 | 0.61 | 1.1 | 0.86 | 0.39 | 1.25 | 1.94 | 2.33 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 9600 | 15 | 1.46 | 0.45 | 1.91 | -0.42 | 0.85 | 0.43 | 1.46 | 2.16 |
| Patrick Reed | 8000 | 16 | 0.16 | 0.68 | 0.84 | 0.35 | 0.99 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.95 |
| Rickie Fowler | 7400 | 10 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.64 | 1.07 | 1.71 | 0.86 | 1.93 |
FIRST CLICK(S)
I will add Koepka at 14-1 as my first click of the week.
I think this week's winner will be one of the favourites, and that Data Golf trend from earlier really caught my eye.
Seven of the last 10 winners of this event have been inside the Data Golf top 20
However, we have to go back to 2014, the last time the event was at this course, to find out the last time No. 1 on the list won this tournament.
This is good news for Scheffler, who holds that position. It is also good news for McIlroy, who was the winner at this course 10 years ago.
But, the Scheffler’s just had a kid. Scottie hasn’t played a competitive round in three weeks and Rory hasn’t won a major in 10 years.
So I’ll ride with Koepka, who is looking to repeat at a major for the third time after going back-to-back at the PGA Championship in 2018 and 2019 and winning two consecutive U.S. Opens in 2017 and 2018.
Also I'll take a small victory lap and say I have him locked in at 21-1 and you would too if you were following me on Twitter.
Finally, I promised two first clicks this week and the second will be Xander Schauffele to be the first-round leader.
I have cashed on Xander twice in this market this year and could very easily see him doing it again this week.
Xander is sixth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average, and he is the second-best player in this field in the opening round of major championships.
With the amount of time off between starts for Scheffler, I don’t expect him to lead after the opening 18 holes. So, at the price of 31-1, I’m more than happy to roll the dice with Xander in the hopes of cashing another FRL ticket on him.