Morning Coffee: A FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night Football
The New England Patriots have been one of the most successful franchises in the NFL over the past two decades under head coach Bill Belichick.
This year has been one very notable exception.
The Patriots are an AFC-worst 2-10 entering Week 14.
New England has just one more win than the Carolina Panthers, which are a league-worst 1-11.
As somebody who faded them when I recommended a play on the Patriots to stay under 6.5 wins at FanDuel before the season kicked off, I appreciate the fact that I won’t have to sweat out that bet the rest of the season.
Still, I didn’t think it would get this bad in New England.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers have overcome their fair share of adversity to stay in the AFC playoff race.
After a disappointing loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13, the Steelers can’t afford to drop another game as a heavy favourite against the Patriots on Thursday Night Football.
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday December 7th, 2023.
FanDuel Sets Historically Low Total For Thursday Night Football
The Steelers closed as a 6.5-point favourite against the Cardinals at FanDuel on Sunday.
They went on to lose that game by 14 points.
Pittsburgh entered that contest with a 5-0 record against opponents with a losing record.
After dropping what appeared to be a very winnable game on paper, the Steelers simply can’t afford a second straight loss as a favourite of six points or more.
Despite their situation, the majority of the early handle on the spread for Thursday Night Football has been on New England to cover.
Remember, the Patriots have lost four straight road games and 10 of 12 games overall this season.
New England is the first team since 1993 to score seven points or fewer in three straight games.
Yet still, the spread for tonight’s game hasn’t moved off of Pittsburgh -6 at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, tonight’s game is also set to feature a historically low total at 30.5, which has been bet down from 35 at FanDuel.
It’s the lowest regular season NFL total since 1993 and the lowest total in any NFL game since the 2005 NFC Divisional Playoff game between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears.
The Steelers own the highest under percentage in the NFL this season with their games going 10-2 to the under.
The Patriots are tied for second on that list with a 9-3 record to the under.
Weather isn’t expected to impact tonight’s game, but with two of the league’s worst offences set to go up against a pair of decent defences, there isn’t expected to be a lot of scoring on Thursday Night Football.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night Football
Sometimes, sports bettors get such a historically low total that they want to test it and bet the over.
Fortunately, FanDuel gives us plenty of options when it comes to building a Same Game Parlay for tonight’s best bet.
For the first leg of my Same Game Parlay, I’m locking in Jaylen Warren 2+ receptions at -245.
This prop cashed in five straight games before Warren finished with just one reception on three targets in Sunday’s loss to Arizona.
In fact, Warren has recorded two or more receptions in 10 of 12 games this season, averaging 3.16 receptions per game.
Najee Harris is expected to play tonight, but he’s questionable with a knee injury.
With Mitch Trubisky set to get the start, Harris banged up, and the Patriots allowed a league-low 3.38 yards per carry to running backs, I expect Warren to be involved in the passing game tonight.
On the other side of the football, I’m going to take the birthday boy Hunter Henry to get involved in the New England offence again with 2+ receptions at -320.
Henry has two or more receptions in five straight games and nine of 11 contests this season.
He’s seen four or more targets in each of his previous three games, and should factor against a Pittsburgh defence that was just burned for 120 yards on 11 receptions by Cardinals’ tight ends last week.
A Same Game Parlay with Warren 2+ receptions and Henry 2+ receptions gets me -115 odds at FanDuel.
I’ll lock in that SGP as my FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night Football.