Schaefer, McQueen generate intriguing talking points in McKenzie's Draft Ranking

There have been no seismic shifts from TSN’s 2025 NHL Draft mid-season ranking from mid-January to our Draft Lottery Edition Top 16 rankings from this week.

But upon further review, TSN’s survey of 10 NHL club team scouts does provide some interesting talking points leading into the NHL Draft Lottery, which will be held on Monday night in Secaucus, N.J.

Such as:

- Erie Otter dynamic defenceman Matthew Schaefer, whose season ended with a broken collarbone at the World Junior Championship in December, remains solidly at No. 1, although it’s not quite unanimous this time.

One of the 10 scouts surveyed by TSN this week has Saginaw Spirit centre Michael Misa at No. 1, followed by Schaefer at No. 2.

That single scout went with Misa ahead of Schaefer largely on the basis of positional preference. That is, he said there’s little to choose between the potential No. 1 NHL centre and No. 1 NHL defenceman but that he would give the nod to a forward.

- The gap between consensus No. 1 Schaefer and the only two prospects other than Schaefer to get No. 2 votes in our scouting survey — eight No. 2 votes for Misa and one for Swedish forward Anton Frondell — appears to range from “marginal” to “moderate” although a couple of the 10 still saw Schaefer as having a “substantial” lead over the rest of the class.

- This year’s Draft Lottery Edition top five features the same handful of prospects as in mid-January but the order has changed slightly.

Misa moves from No. 3 to No. 2; Brampton Steelhead winger Porter Martone goes from No. 4 to No. 3 and Frondell from No. 5 to No. 4.

Boston College centre James Hagens, No. 2 on the mid-season list, is the only one who slipped, checking in at No. 5. Scouts seem to be more or less evenly split on the reasoning. Some say his play has tailed off; others say he was simply leapfrogged by Misa, Martone and Frondell; a few suggest it was a combination of both factors.

- It was much the same story between Nos. 6 and 10. The same five names as mid-January are right back in that same range.

Moncton Wildcat centre Caleb Desnoyers remains at No. 6; Brantford Bulldog centre Jake O’Brien jumps from No. 9 to No. 7; Brandon Wheat King centre Roger McQueen slips one spot, from No. 7 to No. 8; as did Swedish winger Victor Eklund, going from No. 8 to No. 9; and Tri-City American defenceman Jackson Smith holds firm at No. 10.

- McQueen may be the most scrutinized prospect in the Top 10.

He missed a large portion of this season with what was believed to be a back injury and then an unspecified lower-body injury, but he did return to play regular season (17 total - eight before the injury, nine after) and playoff games (three) in March. His ranking comes with a notable asterisk.

At this particular moment in time, none of our scouts surveyed said they would be comfortable taking McQueen where they currently rated him — eight of the 10 had him between Nos. 3 and 10 with two more saying they’ve already red flagged him due the spectre of injury.

The majority of those eight scouts who see the towering centre, if healthy, as a bona fide top 10 prospect said the final decision would ultimately rest with their team’s doctor.

- There was also precious little change from Nos. 11 to 16 from January until now, but one prospect — Erie Otter winger Malcolm Spence, who was No. 16 at mid-season — dropped out of the mix.

Spence did not get a single vote in the Top 16 and the consensus of our scouts is that he’s slipped to be more of a bottom half of the first round consideration.

- The only fresh face in the Draft Lottery Edition Top 16 is Barrie Colt defenceman Kashawn Aitcheson, who went from No. 18 in January to No. 14 now.

- Seattle Thunderbird defenceman Radim Mrtka went from No. 12 to 11; Soo Greyhound centre Brady Martin from No. 13 to 12; Everett Silvertip winger Carter Bear, whose season was ended by an Achilles tendon injury, jumped up two spots, from 15 to 13; Wisconsin Badger freshman defenceman Logan Hensler fell from No. 11 to 15 and Moose Jaw Warrior winger Lynden Lakovic dropped two slots, from 14 to 16.

- Scouts don’t seem overly concerned with Bear’s injury status, certainly not to the same level as McQueen’s, but team doctors will be doing their due diligence on that file as well.

TSN’s final draft rankings survey will take place in June, with our final list unveiled in the week prior to the NHL draft, which is taking place in Los Angeles on June 27-28.