Mid-season top 50 Blue Jays prospects and trade chips

TORONTO — I’m finally giving in.

Since I started the top 50 prospects project more than five years ago now, I’ve debated a mid-summer update, simply because they’ve become the norm for the popular prospect prognosticator websites we all follow.

They do amazing work, but there was a time where monthly shifts in prospect rankings to address every hot and cold streak were frowned upon due to sample size and the volatile nature of prospects in general.

Well, times change and the public’s appetite for prospect information and rankings is sky-high.

What the readers want, the readers get.

My mid-season update will be a little bit different, and it has a lot to do with how the Toronto Blue Jays’ prospect pipeline is built these days.

There’s a few well-known names at the top, but, say, your prospect No. 6 in the system could be someone else’s No. 15, just based on type and personal preference.

With that in mind, and with the trade deadline on the horizon, this mid-summer, post-draft top 50 update will take a bit of a different shape than the numerical list and prospect breakdowns that you get in January after weeks of winter research.

This list will feature a clear top three, followed by the rest of the names on my working list — you get 62 prospect names listed, plus three graduated/gone and five falling off for a total of 70 — grouped into cohorts based on type, with the asset I deem as the most likely trade chip highlighted.

While these rankings are likely to provide a general guide to what you’ll see come January 2024 when the fresh top 50 drops, don’t hold me to the order, and there definitely could be some additions/deletions to the overall group once the minor-league seasons are complete and there’s more info available on the fresh-faced lower-level players in the Dominican Summer League and rookie ball.

I won’t waste any more time. Here’s the list!

Notes: January 2023 ranking in parentheses; NR means was in the system but not ranked; NA means not available to be ranked.

THE TOP 3

Ricky Tiedemann New Hampshire Fisher Cats

1. (1) LHP Ricky Tiedemann, age-20, AA
2. (3) 3B/SS Orelvis Martinez, age-21, AAA
3. (2) LHP Brandon Barriera, age-19, A

THE 411: At this point, these three names are still the clear top tier in the system, with a minor shuffle thanks to Martinez’s impressive adjustments at the plate this year … It’s been mostly a lost year for Tiedemann, as the lefty has dealt with shoulder and biceps issues that have shut him down on two separate occasions, but he should be able to return to the mound later this summer … Martinez cut his K rate by eight percentage points to 20.5 per cent in Double-A, and already has his first Triple-A homer to bring his tally to 18 on the year. The power is so legit … Like Tiedemann, Barriera has suffered through two separate arm injuries this year, shoulder and elbow, but the upside is big.

TRADE CHIP: Teams are going to try to pry away the lefties as buy-lows, but it’s difficult to envision a team desperate to develop pitching dealing either one. Martinez, on the other hand, might be a sell-high asset and even though the Jays could have holes to fill at both 3B and 2B this winter. He could be the key to putting together a blockbuster if there’s one on the table this month.

THE POTENTIAL BLUE-CHIPPERS

Arjun Nimmala Toronto Blue Jays

(NA) SS Arjun Nimmala, age-17
(NA) RHP Landen Maroudis, age-18
(12) OF Enmanuel Bonilla, age-17, DSL
(5) 3B/SS Tucker Toman, age-19, A

THE 411: These four names have the raw talent to be the top prospect in the system within the next couple of years … Drafted 20th overall earlier this month and signed to an under-slot deal, Nimmala is polarizing within the scouting community and his game performance in the lower minors will be truly interesting to watch. Some love him, some thought he had no business going in the first round. He trains with Francisco Lindor and that’s the All-Star ceiling you can dream on … Maroudis, drafted 121st overall in the fourth round, is an upside play and it took going nearly $1 million over slot to get the prep righty out of Florida signed … After signing for $4.1 million in January, the largest amateur international bonus in club history, Bonilla’s debut in the Dominican Summer League has been somewhat muted, but the tools are still huge … Another over-slot signing from the 2022 draft, Toman’s full-season debut hasn't been anything to write home about statistically, but all of the changes to the minor league structure over the past couple of years has significantly improved the quality of competition in Single-A, especially for high school teens.

TRADE CHIP: I don’t think any of these guys will be used as a trade chips, but Toman could conceivably headline a package if there’s a team out there that loves the 77th overall pick from a year ago.

THE NEW GUYS

Connor O'Halloran Michigan

(NA) RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, age-21
(NA) LHP Connor O’Halloran, age-20
(NA) OF Jace Bohrofen, age-21
(NA) 2B/SS Nick Goodwin, age-21
(NA) OF/INF Sam Shaw, age-18

THE 411: Five picks from the recently completed 2023 MLB Draft, Watts-Brown is the lone unsigned name that matters from the Jays draft class. The Oklahoma State righty could’ve gone higher, but slid to the Jays in the third round … O’Halloran, a Mississauga, Ont., native who spent the last three years at Michigan, is a command-oriented lefty who will be perpetually underrated as a prospect and needs to perform at every level … There are many who already think Bohrofen, a college outfielder out of Arkansas, could hit and hit a lot from the left side in pro ball … Goodwin, a seventh-rounder, profiles as an offensive second baseman with some pop … The Jays went more than $100,000 over-slot to lure ninth-rounder Sam Shaw away from his Xavier commitment. The left-handed bat doesn’t have a position, but his natural feel for hitting is evident similar to another Canadian who was an under-the-radar prospect: Minnesota Twins’ Edouard Julien.

TRADE CHIP: None of these guys will be traded this July.

THE UPPER-LEVEL INFIELDERS

Toronto Blue Jays Otto Lopez

(19) SS/2B Leo Jimenez, age-22, AA
(6) INF/OF Addison Barger, age-23, AAA
(16) INF/OF Otto Lopez, age-24, AAA
(45) INF/OF Rafael Lantigua, age-25, AAA

THE 411: It’s been a mixed bag for this group so far this season. Jimenez has made slow yet steady progress through the system and is posting his best offensive season in Double-A with a 122 wRC+ and an .800 OPS. When you combine that with his shortstop glove, you have a very good prospect and a top-10 name in the system … Barger, who came into the year right on the heels of Orelvis Martinez, has dealt with a nagging right elbow injury that forced him into a visit with Dr. Keith Meister in Texas earlier this year. With only three homers in 43 games this season after breaking out with 26 last year, Barger’s elbow is clearly affecting him and there’s a chance it has to be addressed in the off-season … Lopez and Lantigua are versatile defenders with little power going in opposite directions. After an impressive spring, Lopez has struggled, while the little 5-foot-7 Lantigua has flourished and is rocking an impressive .415 on-base percentage and 18.7 per cent walk rate at Triple-A.

TRADE CHIP: If there’s a group of realistic trade chips on the list, this one is it. I could see Jimenez being a player targeted by rebuilding clubs, and with only one option year remaining after this one, the Jays might be inclined to build a package around him, too. With a middle-infield glove and emerging power, he’s a sneaky prospect and, honestly, would probably be a top seven name in the system if this was a straight ranking.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ARMS

Sem Robberse Toronto Blue Jays

(9) RHP Sem Robberse, age-21, AA
(44) RHP Adam Kloffenstein, age-22, AA
(37) RHP Chad Dallas, age-23, AA
(NR) LHP Trenton Wallace, age-24, AA
(39) LHP Jimmy Robbins, age-25, AA
(36) RHP CJ Van Eyk, age-24, A
(29) RHP Trent Palmer, age-24, INJ

THE 411: This group tells you all you need to know about the state of the organization’s upper-level starting pitching depth. It’s the reason they went bullpen days when Alek Manoah needed a reset, and it’s also the reason there’s a group of veteran arms toiling at Triple-A. In other words, it’s pretty thin … Robberse has taken steps forward with his physical projection and velocity this year, but he’s still tracking as a backend starter type without another velo bump … Kloffenstein fell all the way to No. 44 on my list in January, but the big right-hander has enjoyed his best results to date and is still just 22 years old in Double-A. His stock is up, but like Robberse it’s more of a backend profile still with low-90s gas … Dallas, Wallace, and Robbins have all had their moments and would range somewhere between No. 25 and 40 on a ranked list … Van Eyk, drafted in the second round in 2020, looked good coming off Tommy John surgery, but was shut down again in June with a non-arm-related issue … Palmer is recovering from his own TJ and won’t pitch this year.

TRADE CHIP: The Jays would probably love to hang onto an arm that could potentially be a rotation option sometime next summer once he gets some Triple-A time under his belt, but Robberse is also one of the more attractive assets they dangle in front of other pitching-starved clubs over the next couple of weeks.

THE BAT-ONLY PROSPECTS

Spencer Horwitz Toronto Blue Jays

(33) 2B/LF Davis Schneider, age-24, AAA
(15) 1B/LF Spencer Horwitz, age-25, MLB
(28) 1B/3B Damiano Palmegiani, age-23, AA
(27) 1B Rainer Nunez, age-22, AA
(31) OF/C Zach Britton, age-24, AA

THE 411: All of these guys don’t bring much with the leather, meaning they have to hit, and hit a lot, in order to carve out big-league time … Schneider has been the biggest mover of this group, parlaying his 2022 breakout with a Triple-A-leading 18 home runs and a wRC+ of 136. He’s probably going to get a cup of coffee in the big leagues at some point soon … Horwitz has continued to get on base and made his MLB debut, but there’s not much pop … Palmegiani, Nunez and Britton are all corner-type bats trying to find their way at Double-A.

TRADE CHIP: Given the Jays’ recent emphasis on defence, Schneider and Horwitz could be used as upper-level trade chips. Likely capped out as bench bats on a team with World Series aspirations like the Jays, they might fit better on rebuilding teams that could offer up everyday at-bats because both are nearly ready to contribute.

THE DOWN YEARS

Adam Macko Seattle Mariners

(8) LHP Adam Macko, age-22, A+
(10) RHP Dahian Santos, age-20, A+
(11) OF Gabriel Martinez, age-20, A+
(17) CF Dasan Brown, age-21, A+
(7) 2B/3B Cade Doughty, age-22, A+
(22) SS/3B Josh Kasevich, age-22, A+

THE 411: These six prospects all ranked in the top 22 on this year’s list, but haven’t exactly improved their respective stock this season … Macko and Santos have big stuff but also big walk totals at High-A and a lot of kinks to iron out if they’re going to stay starters … Martinez’s season has been one of the more disappointing in the system, as the 20-year-old right-handed hitter hasn’t shown any power in Vancouver yet this year, a step back from a season ago … It’s a similar story for Brown, who’s cut his strikeout rate but he’s still really raw as a hitter and it’s showing … Doughty and Kasevich are both 2022 college picks who have done some nice things but haven’t exactly posted the numbers expected of them at High-A.

TRADE CHIP: This is a group that’s scuffling so far this year, sapping any semblance of public trade value. But teams will always bet on tools and Santos’ stuff — specifically his slider — is sure to draw some suitors trying to pry him away while the value is reasonable.

THE 2023 BREAKOUTS

Kendry Rojas Dunedin Blue Jays

(35) LHP Kendry Rojas, age-20, A
(38) RHP Nolan Perry, age-19, CPX
(NR) RHP Devereaux Harrison, age-22, A+
(NR) RHP Fernando Perez, age-19, CPX
(NR) OF Alan Roden, age-23, AA
(NR) 2B Michael Turconi, age-24, A+

THE 411: These are a few of the fun ones this season, with Rojas, Perry, Harrison, and Perez all providing reasons to believe the Jays have some pitching on the way down the line … Rojas and Perry have been highlighted on the top 50 as breakout candidates previously, while Harrison, a ninth-round pick a year ago from Long Beach State, has found success at High-A after transitioning from the bullpen … Perez, a lanky 6-foot-3 righty from Nicaragua, has been shoving at single-A Dunedin and has a lot of fans within the organization … Roden and Turconi have both done what NCAA picks are supposed to do — rake and perform offensively at High-A.

TRADE CHIP: Low-level arms with breakout potential are oftentimes targeted in deadline deals, so Rojas, Perry and Perez all need to be monitored and could be more valuable than you’d think.

THE IMPACT BULLPEN ARMS

Yosver Zulueta Futures Game

(NR) RHP Connor Cooke, age-23, AA
(4) RHP Yosver Zulueta, age-25, AAA
(25) RHP Hagen Danner, age-24, AAA
(14) RHP Hayden Juenger, age-22, AAA
(NR) LHP Jimmy Burnette, age-24, AAA

THE 411: This is a group of five electric arms who are all bullpen-bound at the major-league level, making them extremely hard to rank alongside potential everyday position players and starting pitchers. But all of them also have the potential to be impact relievers … Cooke has been turning a lot of heads since being shifted into a short-burst reliever and he’s struck out 40 across 21.1 innings at Double-A … For Zulueta, the rotation dream has mostly died because of a lack of command, but the arm is still electric … Danner has been held back by injury the last couple of years, but the converted catcher has a devastating slider and has been settling in lately … Similar to Zulueta, Juenger and Burnette, a lefty, both have electric stuff but have struggled to execute at times.

TRADE CHIP: If there’s a team that believes Zulueta or Juenger deserves another full-time chance as a starter, they could be sneaky targets as both have filthy stuff when they can command it. Patience could be a virtue with both of these arms, something the Jays may not be able to totally afford like a rebuilding club can.

THE LOWER-LEVEL LOTTERY TICKETS

Manuel Beltre Toronto Blue Jays

(18) 2B/CF Adrian Pinto, age-20, A
(20) SS/2B Manuel Beltre, age-19, A
(21) 2B/SS Estiven Machado, age-20, A+
(23) 3B/SS Alex De Jesus, age-21, A+
(46) 2B/SS Luis Garcia, age-19, A
(NR) 2B/SS Martin Giménez, age-19, CPX
(NR) OF Victor Arias, age-19, CPX
(40) OF Yhoangel Aponte, age-19, CPX
(41) OF Robert Robertis, age-20, A
(42) OF Yeuni Munoz, age-19, CPX
(50) OF David Guzman, age-17, DSL
(26) C Luis Meza, age-18, CPX
(30) C/2B Carlos Vasquez, age-18, CPX
(NR) C/1B Edward Duran, age-18, CPX
(NR) 1B Cristian Feliz, age-20, CPX
(49) RHP Eliander Alcalde, age-19, A
(34) RHP Irv Carter, age-20, A

THE 411: A smorgasbord of younger prospects from various areas of my top 50 list back in January, some of these players are stock up, others are stock down, while many are simply treading water and neutral thanks to various small sample sizes … De Jesus and Aponte are two surging names that I should point out because they’ve been stuffed high on the top 50 previously, while Pinto, Beltre, Machado, Meza and Carter are all higher-profile prospects having so-so campaigns … With more than 60 names total here, a large chunk of this group will be the final cuts from next January’s top 50.

TRADE CHIP: Any of the young infielders in this group could be attractive low-level targets for teams, but I’ll highlight former bonus baby Manuel Beltre as an athletic middle infielder who could interest trade partners. There’s a lot to like with the 19-year-old, as he’s controlled the zone, taken his walks and played sound defence. On the flip side, he hasn’t shown much power and the exit velos don’t paint a picture of more coming just yet.

GRADUATED

(13) RHP Nate Pearson, age-26, MLB

GONE

(NR) LHP Nick Allgeyer, age-27 (traded to PHI for cash)
(NR) 2B/OF Vinny Capra, age-26 (traded to PIT for Tyler Heineman)

FALLING OFF

(24) RHP Adrian Hernandez, age-23, AA
(32) 2B/3B Tanner Morris, age-25, AAA
(43) RHP Alejandro Melean, age-22, AA
(47) 2B Miguel Hiraldo, age-22, AA
(48) RHP Michael Dominguez, age-22, A+