There are few quick fixes in the NHL Draft

The 2022 National Hockey League Draft will usher in another group of young, promising players looking to make the jump to the professional level.

In a league that’s increasingly youthful, the days of extensive, multi-year development cycles are long gone. Teams are aggressively injecting young players into the lineup – if not because they are friendlier to the salary cap rules, then because they are the ones generally driving the performance bus. 

But there is clearly a limit to how aggressive franchises are willing to get with young talent. Despite the average age of lineups dropping off a cliff in recent years, teams are still reticent to put the youngest players into regular lineups.

Sometimes this is about physical development; other times, it’s about ensuring players can be successful against professional competition at lower levels first. From time to time you will find a player so uniquely talented and developed – think Edmonton’s Connor McDavid or Florida’s Aaron Ekblad – that the decision is easy. But that’s not the case in most every other situation.

Consider the frequency with which first-year draftees have made their way into the NHL over the past 15 years. Not only is the trendline flat, but it also shows how difficult the immediate jump is for teenage rookies. Over the course of a draft with more than 220 players selected, only about five will see immediate NHL action.

Despite the league-wide revolution in finding and dressing young talent, this has been a firm red line:

Last season, only six skaters selected at the 2021 draft had so much as a cup of coffee at the NHL level. Columbus forward Cole Sillinger solidified a full-time roster spot, with five other skaters – San Jose’s William Eklund, Buffalo’s Owen Power, Seattle’s Matty Beniers, Anaheim’s Mason McTavish, and Columbus’ Kent Johnson – seeing very limited action. Or, said another way, one player from last year’s draft transitioned right away to their NHL team.

The number of players who became full-time regulars over the past 15 years is quite a bit smaller, and almost all these players come from the first round. Of the 59 players (2007-22) who saw more than 20 games of action in their first available season, only one – Ryan O’Reilly in the 2009-10 season with the Colorado Avalanche – was taken outside of the first round.

A better way to visualize this group of 59 players is the slots in which they were selected. Teams are quite good at scouting NHL-ready talent, and these players are largely taken early in the first round.  So, if you are a fan of a team that’s drafting early, you may have an outside chance at seeing that draft pick in an NHL lineup next season. But absent this very small group of players, the prospects are likely headed elsewhere to develop, and likely for multiple years.

The very top of the draft is where you find players who immediately make the jump – the top eight picks alone account for 82 per cent of first-year pro players over this 15-year interval. If we use the venerable Bob McKenzie’s final draft rankings, here is the list of applicable players:

The draft offers tremendous opportunity to teams searching for future roster improvement, and the transition time for many of these players has shortened over the years. But if you are looking for an instant injection of talent, it’s extraordinarily rare to find that type of player outside of the top eight picks. Patience will be a virtue.

Enjoy the draft!

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference