Columnist image

TSN Baseball Insider

Archive

The Blue Jays offence finally broke out in a big way against the Texas Rangers. The lack of offensive production for most of the first month of the season put pressure on the pitching staff. Remember, the construction of the Jays was supposed to allow for good pitching - not great - to win games. Unfortunately, the lack of offence left no margin for error for the starters and even less for the bullpen.

General managers make most of their mistakes in the bullpen. It is impossible to quantify the impact of appearance, innings and how many times a pitcher warms up from one year to the next. Relievers can be great one year and awful the next. They can have good months and bad months. They can be inconsistent from week to week or game to game.  You just never know when a pitcher will hit the wall.

For instance, coming into the season, the one guy in the Jays bullpen that seemed to be the least of the Jays problems was Brett Cecil. I mean, come on, he went 37 straight appearances without allowing a run to end the 2015 season. And he did all of that after posting a 5.14 ERA in April, 1.13 ERA in May and 9.00 ERA in June. See what I mean about streaky?

Well this year, we are seeing the bad Brett Cecil, not the good one. In fact he is 0-5 with a 5.59 ERA. He is the only pitcher in major league history to earn five losses in the first month of the season. Yikes!

So what should the Jays do?

He can’t be sent to the minors without his approval because he has 5-plus years of MLB service. Plus, I don’t know why he would approve it. The good news is that Cecil can fall back upon previous experience when he went from really bad to really good. In his mind he knows it can happen again. In fact, it may just be a matter of time.

So the Jays need to give him the ball in less game-critical situations and try to rebuild his aggressiveness and confidence. When he has a good inning, get him out of the game. Let a positive feeling linger. Then build upon it. He has to walk before he can run.

But make no mistake, the Jays will need him to sprint at some point. He is a significant cog in this pen. If he doesn’t get right then the Jays will be forced to go outside of the organization for a quality lefty reliever to complement Drew Storen and Roberto Osuna.

Looking at Lincecum?

It seems as though every team could use pitching. There is no perfect staff. That is why former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is garnering significant attention during his rehabilitation from hip surgery. Just about every team had scouts watching him throw a bullpen session in Arizona on Friday.

The slight right-hander maintained 91 mph in his outing, which is a few MPH faster than what he averaged last year on his fastball. He spun his slider at 84 mph and his curveball at 77 mph. He tossed his change-up at 84. Those numbers all work. But it was just a 40-pitch workout.

The biggest question is whether he can maintain these velocities and whether he can command his pitches in game situations. Lincecum has always had a complicated delivery. His stride off the mound is longer than he is tall. I believe it is this delivery that led to his hip injury. It is also part of what made him successful because it added deception.

Can he still pitch with his old delivery without further injuring his hip? Can he repeat his delivery with his repaired hip? If not, can he pitch successful with a remade delivery? How far away is he physically from game ready condition? Can he take the ball every fifth day?

I need answers to these questions before I would offer him millions of dollars. I would want to see at least three more showcases, including one in which he faces hitters. I would want him to pitch an inning and then sit down for 10 minutes and then come back out and pitch again. I want at least five innings of this sort of simulation to see how he is able to maintain his stuff. I need to know if his hip tightens up.

My experience tells me that Lincecum is a safer bet to pitch well in 2017, than he is in 2016. Even if he passes all of my tests I would need to make a two-year deal with him or at least a year plus an option. If I am taking a chance this season and giving him an opportunity I want the ability to really capitalize on it when he is even healthier next year.

The other thing to remember is that the former Giants’ ace wasn’t very good the last couple of years even before the injury.

My guess is that the type of deal I would want to make wouldn’t be available to me. Someone will take a one-year flyer on him. Desperate people do desperate things. I don’t believe the Jays will be desperate enough to jump in the bidding for him.

Bronx Troubles

One club that could really use pitching is the New York Yankees (9-17). They could use hitting and fielding as well. Other than that it has been a great start to 2016.

The Yanks led the AL East for the first four months last year until the Jays blew by them. They still earned a wild card berth though. With the growth of Michael Pineda and Luis Severino in the rotation plus off-season trades that brought in closer Aroldis Chapman and second baseman Starlin Castro many people thought the Yanks might be better in 2016.

When I look at why the Yankees were so successful last year I realized timing was a critical factor. If a team has questionable starting pitching the best thing that can happen is scoring early and often. This allows a margin for error for the starters and allows them to be aggressive in the strike zone rather than nibbling and trying to miss bats.

The other way to support a weaker starting rotation is to shorten the game for them with a high quality bullpen. In 2015 the Yanks scored the second most runs in baseball to the Jays but they were the highest scoring offence in the first inning. They staked their staff to a lead quite often. Plus the bullpen was elite with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller.

This season, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Alex Rodriguez and Chase Headley are all struggling. In fact the Yanks have the lowest scoring offence in the AL. Plus, Rodriguez is now on the DL with a hamstring injury. They aren’t scoring which is impacting the starting rotation and bullpen.

Joe Girardi gets the most out of his team every year. They always seem to win more games than I think they should. He has his work cut out for him this year. The Yanks look old and slow. Father time may have finally caught up with them. They will make a run for a short time but I have serious doubts whether they can come all the way back.

You may all get what you have been wanting for a long time: the Yanks at the bottom of the division.

Testing, Testing

The only thing that could make the start of this year worse for the Yankees would be if someone tested positive for PEDs.

Oh wait, there have been reports that there will be at least one more player suspended for a positive PED test for the drug Turinabol, a drug that was used by East German athletes in the 70’s. It is the same substance that was found in Chris Colabello’s urine as well as two other players who were recently suspended.

We don’t yet know who the player is or what team he is on. The player himself likely already knows and is in the midst of the confidential appeal process. So the Yankees have a one in 30 chance for it to be one of their guys. Then again, so do the Jays.

Some of you will feel like another positive test proves that players still cheat. I prefer to believe that the system is working and for a change the testers outsmarted the chemists. Every positive test must strike fear into those who are cheating or considering it. A positive test is a good thing, not a bad thing. It’s all how you look at it.
 
Some random thoughts:

The Angels' season is over. The loss of Garrett Richards pretty much guarantees that they have no shot of playing in October. There has been immediate speculation that LA should now consider trading Mike Trout. You can come in last place with him and last place without him. There is no way I would ever be the general manager who trades him. They would have to fire me first.

Dodger outfielder Yasiel Puig sure seems more likable now than he used to be. He hung out with high school kids at a prom in a road hotel, he went fishing on an off-day in Toronto, heck, he even walked the edge of the CN Tower. He seems happy and looks like he is having fun. That’s great!  Maybe he can start to play better now. If he is going to put himself at the center of attention then he had better be a good player. I wish he would put more of his energy into dedication on the field.

The Cubs are 22-6 and have a +98 run differential. They only had a plus-81 run differential last season when they won 97 games. They are currently on pace to win 127 games with a run differential of plus-569 runs. They are dominating the competition. Okay, I guess that is a bit of an understatement.

The Atlanta Braves are 7-20. They are the lowest scoring team in the game. They have only hit six home runs as a team. There are 37 players who have hit six or more homers themselves. They are 26th in pitching and 29th in defence. They are bad. There is speculation that the Braves may fire manager Freddie Gonzalez. Why? They don’t have a managerial problem; they have a personnel problem. It will be an injustice when they terminate Gonzalez.

Has anyone else noticed how bad strike zones have been this year with umpires?  It’s been as bad as I have ever seen it. Almost all umpires are calling very low strikes. It almost feels like they were all told to lower the zone and they are. What becomes even more frustrating for the players is when the umpire gives the pitcher the bottom of the zone and the top of the zone. It also feels like umpires are looking for confrontation and reasons to eject complainants. Automation is growing on me.