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Apr 15, 2015

Blues finish No. 1 in NHL Power Rankings

The St. Louis Blues, healthy entering the postseason, finish the year on top of the TSN.ca NHL Power Rankings, ahead of the New York Rangers and Minnesota Wild.

St. Louis Blues Celebrate

The St. Louis Blues, healthy entering the postseason, finish the year on top of the TSN.ca NHL Power Rankings, ahead of the New York Rangers and Minnesota Wild.

Ranked third in the preseason, the Blues were the top-ranked team more than any other this season and head into the playoffs as the No. 1 team, though their first-round matchup against No. 3 Minnesota is a rather daunting task right out of the gate.

Montreal ended as the top-ranked Canadian team, at eight, followed closely by the streaking Ottawa Senators at 10, Winnipeg Jets at 12, Vancouver Canucks at 14 and Calgary Flames at 17. The two Canadian teams to miss the playoffs, the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs, ended the season ranked 27th and 28th, respectively.

In any case, a lot has happened since the preseason Power Rankings were posted and I take a look at some of what happened this year that contributed to teams finishing in a different spot from where they started.

 

 

St. Louis Blues

51-24-7 This Week: 1 Last Week: 5

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.92
  • GAPG
    2.40
  • S.A. CORSI%
    52.5%
  • PP%
    22.3%
  • PK%
    83.7%

Preseason Rank: 3

Average Rank: 3.95

That was unexpected: The Blues weren't shocking. Vladimir Tarasenko took a big step forward, and Paul Stastny wasn't as significant in a deep group of forwards, but that's the strength of the Blues -- they're a deep and really good team. Now the question is if their goaltending is good enough to get the job done in the postseason.

Key Injuries: None.

New York Rangers

53-22-7 This Week: 2 Last Week: 2

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    3.02
  • GAPG
    2.28
  • S.A. CORSI%
    50.6%
  • PP%
    16.8%
  • PK%
    84.3%

Preseason Ranking: 12

Average Ranking: 11.76

That was unexpected: A huge bounceback season for Rick Nash was a little unexpected, but what stood out for the Rangers this year was how well they fared when Henrik Lundqvist was out, leaving Cam Talbot handle the starter's role in net. Also, the contribution they received from rookie C Kevin Hayes is more than I was anticipating and that has given the Rangers' enviable forward depth.

Key Injuries: D Kevin Klein (arm).

Minnesota Wild

46-28-8 This Week: 3 Last Week: 1

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.77
  • GAPG
    2.42
  • S.A. CORSI%
    51.1%
  • PP%
    15.8%
  • PK%
    86.3%

Preseason Ranking: 11

Average Ranking: 10.05

That was unexpected: Well, the Devan Dubnyk resurrection was a surprise, and while I expected more from young players Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle, I didn't foresee 21 goals in 51 games for Jason Zucker.

Key Injuries: None.

Chicago Blackhawks

48-28-6 This Week: 4 Last Week: 3

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.68
  • GAPG
    2.27
  • S.A. CORSI
    54.4%
  • PP%
    17.6%
  • PK%
    83.4%

Preseason Ranking: 1

Average Ranking: 3.24

That was unexpected: For one, I didn't expect the Blackhawks to run into offensive problems. Patrick Sharp was most notable for being snakebit, scoring on just 7.0% of his shots, but numbers were down for Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa too. Add in a Patrick Kane injury and my top preseason team is still a contender, but not quite the powerhouse that they appeared coming into the season.

Key Injuries: None..

Anaheim Ducks

51-24-7 This Week: 5 Last Week: 6

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.78
  • GAPG
    2.70
  • S.A. CORSI%
    51.1%
  • PP%
    15.7%
  • PK%
    81.0%

Preseason Ranking: 8

Average Ranking: 7.10

That was unexpected: Not a lot out of unexpecteds with the Ducks, though I didn't think Jakob Silfverberg would have more points than Ryan Getzlaf after the All-Star break. I was pleasantly surprised by the role that the Ducks gave to defenceman Sami Vatanen and didn't expect Matt Beleskey's 22-goal season. I also thought the goaltending was going to end up closer to an even split between Frederik Andersen and John Gibson and that didn't materialize but, for the most part, the Ducks are a good team, as expected.

Key Injuries: None.

Nashville Predators

47-25-10 This Week: 6 Last Week: 4

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.76
  • GAPG
    2.46
  • S.A. CORSI%
    52.7%
  • PP%
    16.2%
  • PK%
    80.8%

Preseason Ranking: 24

Average Ranking: 3.95

That was unexpected: Whoa, this was a big shift! Not the first time that I've underrated the Predators, but I did not see Filip Forsberg and Mike Ribeiro with the seasons that they had, A strong year (overall) from Pekka Rinne and a lot of internal improvement from Colin Wilson and a bunch on the blueline -- Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and Seth Jones -- and Nashville went from nowheresville in the preseason to a home-ice advantage in the first round.

Key Injuries: None.

Tampa Bay Lightning

47-24-7 This Week: 7 Last Week: 2

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    3.16
  • GAPG
    2.51
  • S.A. CORSI%
    53.3%
  • PP%
    18.8%
  • PK%
    83.7%

Preseason Ranking: 10

Average Ranking: 5.62

That was unexpected: On the whole, I wasn't too far off on the Lightning, and I liked Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, but was not expecting the breakout year for Nikita Kucherov, making that line of the league's best. I overestimated the impact of rookie winger Jonathan Drouin and, as much as I like him as a defensive upgrade, I still underestimated the improvement that Anton Stralman would provide.

Key Injuries: D Jason Garrison (upper body).

 

Montreal Canadiens

50-22-10 This Week: 8 Last Week: 10

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.61
  • GAPG
    2.24
  • S.A. CORSI%
    48.5%
  • PP%
    16.5%
  • PK%
    83.7%

Preseason Ranking: 9

Average Ranking: 7.33

That was unexpected: Carey Price to be the best player in the league this year. Goaltenders are still an unpredictable lot and Price's career-best season was what the Habs needed to overcome subpar possession stats. Didn't anticipate an offensive bounceback from C Tomas Plekanec, but probably expected more out of RW P.A. Parenteau.

Key Injuries: None.

New York Islanders

47-28-7 This Week: 9 Last Week: 8

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.99
  • GAPG
    2.73
  • S.A. CORSI%
    53.4%
  • PP%
    18.7%
  • PK%
    78.0%

Preseason Ranking: 14

Average Ranking: 8.57

That was unexpected: The Islanders were an easy pick to improve, after adding Jaroslav Halak, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy, but Boychuk and Leddy were even better than anticipated. Internal improvement, from Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson and the emergence of rookie Anders Lee made the Isles a much better team.

Key Injuries: C Mikhail Grabovski (concussion).

Ottawa Senators

43-26-13 This Week: 10 Last Week: 13

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.83
  • GAPG
    2.54
  • S.A. CORSI%
    50.6%
  • PP%
    16.8%
  • PK%
    82.9%

Preseason Ranking: 21

Average Ranking: 19.86

That was unexpected: Oh, nothing, pretty much standard fare in Ottawa, where their third-string goaltender took them on a two-month run to make the playoffs after being 14 points out. So, Andrew Hammond was unexpected. While it was fair to have hopes for Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, both have been better than I anticipated.

Key Injuries: None.

Pittsburgh Penguins

43-27-12 This Week: 11 Last Week: 9

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.65
  • GAPG
    2.49
  • S.A. CORSI%
    53.8%
  • PP%
    19.3%
  • PK%
    84.8%

Preseason Ranking: 6

Average Ranking: 6.00

That was unexpected: Thought there would be a little more production from Sidney Crosby, who was saddled with career-worst on-ice shooting percentage, and while the supporting cast had its problems, there weren't dramatic underachievers. Really, injuries that decimated the blueline are the biggest difference between the Penguins' current and pre-season rankings.

Key Injuries: RW Pascal Dupuis (blood clot), D Olli Maatta (upper body), D Christian Ehrhoff (concussion), D Kris Letang (concussion).

Winnipeg Jets

43-26-13 This Week: 12 Last Week: 14

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.72
  • GAPG
    2.49
  • S.A. CORSI%
    53.6%
  • PP%
    17.8%
  • PK%
    81.8%

Preseason Ranking: 19

Average Ranking: 16.24

That was unexpected: A career year out of G Ondrej Pavelec or the decision -- out of necessity -- to move Dustin Byfuglien back to defence, where was excellent. Mathieu Perreault was also more productive, coming on after a slow start to the year and the contending Jets made a bold move, trading an injured Evander Kane, adding forward depth at the trade deadline.

Key Injuries: LW Mathieu Perreault (lower body)

Washington Capitals

45-26-11 This Week: 13 Last Week: 15

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.89
  • GAPG
    2.43
  • S.A. CORSI%
    52.0%
  • PP%
    25.3%
  • PK%
    81.2%

Preseason Ranking: 22

Average Ranking: 14.00

That was unexpected: There was some improvement from G Braden Holtby, who handled a heavy workload, but the Capitals improved their possession game, and their defence was improved more than I would have expected by additions of Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen, which helped John Carlson to the best year of his career.

Key Injuries: None.

Vancouver Canucks

48-29-5 This Week: 14 Last Week: 16

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.88
  • GAPG
    2.68
  • S. A. CORSI%
    49.0%
  • PP%
    19.3%
  • PK%
    85.7%

Preseason Ranking: 17

Average Ranking: 14.57

That was unexpected: Some bounceback was practically assured for the Canucks after collapsing in 2013-2014, but they got rewarded for investing in free agent winger Radim Vrbata, G Eddie Lack rose to the occasion when Ryan Miller was injured and rookie C Bo Horvat was one of a few players to provide solid a depth contribution.

Key Injuries: RW Zack Kassian (back).

Los Angeles Kings

40-27-15 This Week: 15 Last Week: 11

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.66
  • GAPG
    2.40
  • S.A. CORSI%
    55.0%
  • PP%
    19.0%
  • PK%
    80.9%

Preseason Ranking: 2

Average Ranking: 12.62

That was unexpected: The puzzling part of the Kings missing the postseason is that they didn't have a disastrous season. Losing D Slava Voynov affected them, but they also went 3-15 in overtime and shootout games, so they could have easily gone 6-12 and it would have been good enough to get into the postseason and, with their underlying numbers, they would have been a feared postseason opponent. More production from C Anze Kopitar would have helped.

 

Boston Bruins

41-27-14 This Week: 16 Last Week: 12

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.55
  • GAPG
    2.45
  • S.A. CORSI%
    52.3%
  • PP%
    17.8%
  • PK%
    82.0%

Preseason Ranking: 3

Average Ranking: 15.71

That was unexpected: Early injuries to C David Krejci and D Zdeno Chara, who both struggled (relative to past performance) upon returning, were too much to overcome, but that was also despite a breakout season from D Dougie Hamilton and strong second-half contributions from rookies David Pastrnak and Ryan Spooner. That those injuries were enough to derail the Bruins' season reflects poorly on the supporting cast, including an established core player like Milan Lucic, who couldn't raise his level of play.

 

Detroit Red Wings

43-25-14 This Week: 17 Last Week: 17

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.82
  • GAPG
    2.57
  • S.A. CORSI%
    53.5%
  • PP%
    23.8%
  • PK%
    80.9%

Preseason Ranking: 16

Average Ranking: 9.10

That was unexpected: The Wings are about where I thought they might be this year, good enough to be a playoff team, but also facing some challenges due to injuries and inconsistent goaltending. Even so, the continued development of wingers Tomas Tatar and Justin Abdelkader stood out for Detroit this season.

Key Injuries: LW Johan Franzen (concussion), LW Justin Abdelkader (hand), LW Erik Cole (upper body).

Dallas Stars

41-31-10 This Week: 18 Last Week: 18

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    3.13
  • GAPG
    3.13
  • S.A. CORSI%
    52.3%
  • PP%
    19.0%
  • PK%
    80.7%

Pre-season Ranking: 8

Average Ranking: 17.14

That was unexpected: A scoring title for Jamie Benn and the immediate impact of rookie defenceman John Klingberg stood out as positives, but the Stars also played almost the entire season without RW Valeri Nichushkin and might have anticipated more from RW Ales Hemsky. Their biggest disappointment, however, would be goaltender Kari Lehtonen, who had the worst season of his career playing behind a defence in transition.

 

Calgary Flames

45-30-7 This Week: 19 Last Week: 20

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.89
  • GAPG
    2.60
  • S.A. CORSI%
    44.4%
  • PP%
    18.8%
  • PK%
    80.6%

Preseason Ranking: 20

Average Ranking: 17.24

That was unexpected: That the Flames managed to earn a playoff spot was a surprise, particularly while they were the 28th-ranked possession team, but the real surprise is that they continued to push forward even after captain Mark Giordano was injured. Johnny Gaudreau exceeded my relatively optimistic expectations while Jiri Hudler and Dennis Wideman had a career years, and that was enough to reach the postseason.

Key Injuries: D Mark Giordano (biceps).

Philadelphia Flyers

33-31-18 This Week: 20 Last Week: 21

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.58
  • GAPG
    2.72
  • S.A. CORSI%
    49.2%
  • PP%
    23.4%
  • PK%
    77.1%

Preseason Ranking: 25

Average Ranking: 21.76

That was unexpected: Hopes weren't terribly high for the Flyers this year and they pretty much lived down to expectations, but G Steve Mason was terrific, posting a career-best .928 save percentage. The contributions of D Michael Del Zotto were a pleasant surprise too, but the collapse of veterans Vincent Lecavalier and R.J. Umberger played a part in Philadelphia's down season.

 

San Jose Sharks

40-33-9 This Week: 21 Last Week: 20

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.73
  • GAPG
    2.76
  • S.A. CORSI%
    51.5%
  • PP%
    21.6%
  • PK%
    78.5%

Preseason Ranking: 4

Average Ranking: 14.62

That was unexpected: Considering that the Sharks lost in seven games against the eventual Stanley Cup champions the year before, it wasn't unreasonable to think they were contenders, but their curious offseason resulted in a supporting cast that wasn't ready for primetime. It was fair to expect some regression from Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, but the Sharks might have expected more from second-year forward Tomas Hertl, and may not have adequately anticipated the impact of returning Brent Burns to defence from right wing.

 

Florida Panthers

38-29-15 This Week: 22 Last Week: 22

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.42
  • GAPG
    2.60
  • S.A. CORSI%
    50.8%
  • PP%
    16.3%
  • PK%
    80.0%

Preseason Ranking: 28

Average Ranking: 20.95

That was unexpected: Definitely didn't expect Aaron Ekblad to have the kind of season that he did as an 18-year-old rookie because that just doesn't happen and a combined 41 goals from Brandon Pirri and Jimmy Hayes exceeded projections. Adding Jaromir Jagr at the deadline, which helped Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, kept the Panthers competitive right to the end.

 

Columbus Blue Jackets

42-35-5 This Week: 23 Last Week: 23

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.77
  • GAPG
    3.02
  • S.A. CORSI%
    46.9%
  • PP%
    21.7%
  • PK%
    80.2%

Preseason Ranking: 18

Average Ranking: 24.71

That was unexpected: Unless predicting locusts or bubonic plague was considered a possibility, Columbus' run of injuries to start the year was off-the-charts. They did get a career year out of RW Nick Foligno, and their young players got more minutes than might have been planned, but that makes them an interesting team to watch for next season.

 

Carolina Hurricanes

30-41-11 This Week: 24 Last Week: 24

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.23
  • GAPG
    2.67
  • S.A. CORSI%
    51.5%
  • PP%
    18.8%
  • PK%
    84.7%

Preseason Ranking: 29

Average Ranking: 26.38

That was unexpected: Once Jordan Staal was injured in the preseason, expectations were suitably low for the 'Canes, though they ended up a competitive team in the second half of the season once Staal returned. The emergence of young players like Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask and Andrej Nestrasil helped raise the Hurricanes, albeit after their path for the season had already been set.

Colorado Avalanche

39-31-12 This Week: 25 Last Week: 26

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.55
  • GAPG
    2.72
  • S.A. CORSI%
    43.2%
  • PP%
    15.0%
  • PK%
    84.6%

Preseason Ranking: 13

Average Ranking: 24.00

That was unexpected: Prime candidates for regression after finishing with 112 points in 2013-2014, the Avalanche collapsed even harder and faster than I had forecasted. Nathan MacKinnon didn't take a step forward in his second season and ended up with a season-ending injury, as did top pair defender Erik Johnson. LW Jamie McGinn missed the entire season, C Paul Stastny left via free agency and RW P.A. Parenteau was traded away to Montreal. Newcomers Jarome Iginla, Daniel Briere and rookie Dennis Everberg couldn't make up the difference. D Nick Holden also struggled following a breakthrough season in 2013-2014. So that's a big crash, for a team that was confident that it had found the path to winning despite getting destroyed in the possession game.

New Jersey Devils

32-36-15 This Week: 26 Last Week: 25

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.15
  • GAPG
    2.55
  • S.A. CORSI%
    46.8%
  • PP%
    19.3%
  • PK%
    80.6%

Preseason Ranking: 15

Average Ranking: 21.90

That was unexpected: After being a strong possession team for years, the Devils were supposed to be better simply by virtue of giving Cory Schneider a starter's workload in goal and Schneider held up his end of the bargain, playing very well (posting a .925 save percentage) in 69 games, but New Jersey's possession advantage was gone, and they couldn't generate any offence. While Scott Gomez or Steve Bernier might count as positives, they couldn't offset drops in production from an aging group of forwards.

 

Edmonton Oilers

24-44-14 This Week: 27 Last Week: 27

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.35
  • GAPG
    3.37
  • S.A. CORSI%
    47.3%
  • PP%
    17.7%
  • PK%
    76.7%

Pre-Season Ranking: 27

Average Ranking: 28.52

That was unexpeted: Maintaining a healthy dose of skepticism on the Oilers seems to be the way to go until proven otherwise, but even a skeptic might have expected a little better goaltending out of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth. Demoting D Marting Marincin at the start of the year was something of a surprise, but Edmonton's defensive shortcomings were, ultimately, the continuation of an ongoing problem.

Toronto Maple Leafs

30-44-8 This Week: 28 Last Week: 28

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.51
  • GAPG
    3.13
  • S.A. CORSI%
    45.2%
  • PP%
    15.9%
  • PK%
    80.4%

Preseason Ranking: 23

Average Ranking: 21.52

That was unexpected: After a surprising start, with their typically poor possession numbers, the Leafs started to fall so they fired head coach Randy Carlyle. Then the collapse really began, as the team cut down on chances against, yet scoring dried up and they couldn't get out of the tailspin. There were plenty of underachievers throughout the lineup, but the decline in production from Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul counted as the most surprising.

Arizona Coyotes

24-50-8 This Week: 29 Last Week: 29

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    2.01
  • GAPG
    3.26
  • S.A. CORSI%
    47.3%
  • PP%
    20.0%
  • PK%
    76.7%

Preseason Ranking: 26

Average Ranking: 27.14

That was unexpected: Arizona's offensive struggles didn't come as a surprise, and maybe a drop in play for G Mike Smith shouldn't have been a surprise, but his struggles contributed to the Coyotes pushing even closer to the bottom of the ledger.

Buffalo Sabres

22-47-8 This Week: 30 Last Week: 30

TEAM STATS

  • GPG
    1.87
  • GAPG
    3.28
  • S.A. CORSI%
    36.2%
  • PP%
    13.4%
  • PK%
    75.1%

Preseason Ranking: 30

Average Ranking: 29.43

That  was unexpected: The Sabres lived down to expectations, though they almost managed to get out of the basement late in the year. It's difficult to pin their struggles on individual players because those that moved on have tended to fare all right with new teams.

Notes: While all injuries are taken into account, those listed as key injuries include top nine forwards, top four defencemen and starting goaltenders.

GPG - Goals Per Game, GAPG - Goals Against Per Game

S.A. CORSI% - Score-Adjusted Corsi Percentage. The percentage of shot attempts, during 5-on-5 play, relative to the opposition, adjusted for game-score. 

PP% - Power Play%

PK% - Penalty Kill%

Much of the data included comes from great modern stats sites www.war-on-ice.com, www.puckalytics.com, and www.naturalstattrick.com

Scott Cullen can be reached at scott.cullen@bellmedia.ca