Buyer or seller? Some MLB teams may be both

Steve Phillips

TSN Baseball Insider

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There are just over two weeks before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline in major league baseball. It is the time of year that we expect teams to declare themselves as a buyer or seller. We have been trained to anticipate that declaration either verbally or by actions. But there is a third option that has emerged for general managers: buyer and seller.

There has been an evolution in baseball over the years. It used to be that small market teams that were out of the race would trade their soon-to-be free agents and receive a bounty of blue chip prospects in return. Large market general managers freely traded young kids for a chance at the World Series. I know I never hesitated to trade my young kids with the Mets and justified it by saying I didn’t know what would happen next year, so I had to go for it today.

But as small market teams starting winning with the young prospects they were acquiring from large market teams at the deadline, there was a shift. The Oakland A’s, Minnesota Twins, Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays were finding ways to compete with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Red Sox. Large market owners started asking their general managers why they were trading the young kids away to get veterans when the young kids seem more than capable of helping small market teams win immediately. So, the high payroll general managers started to covet their prospects in the same way that smaller markets did.

This transition in thinking has caused clubs to now look for avenues to acquire talent in more creative ways. Hence the evolution of the "buy and sell" teams at the deadline. Fifteen to twenty years ago the Athletics were the only team that clearly considered doing both. In 1998, they were in last place and Billy Beane, the Oakland general manager, traded starting pitcher Kenny Rogers to the Mets but then turned around and traded for veteran starter Kevin Appier from the Kansas City Royals. Beane made the move because Rogers was a free agent at the end of that season and Appier was under control for a couple more seasons. It was the control of Appier that made him appealing even for a last-place club, for the final two months of the season and worth acquiring.

Last season the Yankees traded away Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman and scored huge returns for both. They decided to try and win and rebuild at the same time. They were just 52-52 at the deadline but finished the year six games over .500. After the season, they re-signed Chapman and were in a better position to win this year. Twenty years ago, the Yankees might have been inclined to go for it and buy big at the deadline. They might have traded catcher Gary Sanchez and outfielder Aaron Judge to get the big piece to get to October. Instead they currently have two stud young players whom they control for the next six years.

The Houston Astros, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers are clearly buyers at this year’s deadline. Any trade they make will be to help them win in October and won’t be needed to get there. The Padres, Reds, Phillies, and White Sox are all exclusively sellers as they are more than three years away from playoff baseball. Every other club, including the Blue Jays, can be buyers and sellers.

So, don’t expect a specific declaration from Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins over the next couple of weeks. They may buy, sell, do both or neither. We may define them by what moves they actually make but their conversations will be in both categories.

There are no untouchable players on the Blue Jays. Some are more untouchable than others, but no player is completely unavailable. Although it is highly unlikely that Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Joe Biagini and  Roberto Osuna will go anywhere, it isn’t impossible. Their age and the Jays’ ability to control their contracts are enticing to other clubs, but that is why the Jays like them too. So, it would take extraordinary circumstances for any of them to be dealt.

In order of likelihood of being traded I would place Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano and Jose Bautista in the "most likely to be dealt" category because of their age, and contract status.

Toronto would listen to offers for Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin as they are both underperforming their contracts. They won’t get offers for either, however. You might even throw Steve Pearce in this category as well.

JA Happ and Justin Smoak both have a year left on their contracts and are performing at or beyond their salary levels. Other clubs would have interest in them but since the Jays are going to try and win next year too, they won’t likely be discussed in deals.

The Jays will get plenty of calls on Josh Donaldson and they could get a big return for him. However, Shapiro said they will only make deals which make them better. I can't fathom a trade which would make Toronto a better team at the major league level now. Sure they could get a haul of young prospects but that only has a chance to make them better a few years from now. Donaldson isn't untouchable but it is highly unlikely a deal will even be discussed over the next couple of weeks.

Kendrys Morales won’t be highly pursued by other clubs, as he isn’t an impact player and is a bit older. He is serviceable for his salary, but not an answer for a playoff contending team.

Players like Aaron Loup, Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera, Miguel Montero and Kevin Pillar could all fill needs for buying teams but the return for the Jays wouldn’t be significant. So they won’t likely be traded either, unless someone overpays.

The Long Ball

There seems to be so much energy around the number of home runs being hit in baseball this year. The Commissioner’s Office sent a letter to each club on July 1, stating that they have tested the baseballs and have found them within the parameters of production. In effect, the ball isn’t juiced.

Yet, with the number of pitchers with blisters and the anecdotal home run evidence, there is something different. Pitchers know how the baseball feels in their hands. They know if it is heavier or harder. They know if the leather feels different on their fingertips. So, the balls may still be within the parameters and margin for error that baseball has in place. Maybe, then, it is the parameters that need to change.

Let me be clear though, there is no conspiracy to juice the baseballs with a hope for more homers. Just as there wasn’t a conspiracy to look the other way from steroids back in 1998 when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were shattering home run records as some have proposed. I was a general manager in the heart of the steroid era. I was around owners and executives from other teams. I sat in meetings with the Commissioner. If there was a conspiracy I would have known about it and would love to break the story to you. It didn’t happen then and isn’t happening now.

The bigger question is whether it is a bad thing that we are going to shatter the single season total for home runs. Fans like offence. Sure, the overall numbers are up but we aren’t going to set new individual home run records. I don’t think the integrity of the game is in jeopardy.

Let’s be grateful and enjoy the great baseball we are seeing.  I understand why people are skeptical when numbers get shattered but there are plenty of potential reasons for the increase beyond the “juiced baseballs”: smaller stadiums, more velocity on pitches, leg kicks for hitters, emphasis on exit velocity and launch angle to name a few.

Brew Crew

If I were to ask you which team leads in home runs in the NL, I bet you would name six or seven teams before you got the right answer. This year the Milwaukee Brewers have already hit 138 home runs and lead the league. They are also second in stolen bases in the league. An offence with the unique combination of power and speed allows them to score in any number of different ways. They are fourth in runs scored in the NL this year. They have been able to put up big numbers even when their best hitter Ryan Braun has been on the DL. First baseman Eric Thames signed as a free agent after several years playing in Korea and has 23 homers. Travis Shaw was acquired in a trade with the Red Sox this off-season and has 19 dingers. Even more impressive is their pitching staff which is ranked fourth in ERA in the league. The Brewers have developed closer Cory Knebel, who has solidified the end of the game. He has dominating stuff and has held opponents to a .163 batting average while striking out 75 batters in 42.1 innings pitched.
 
The Brewers are for real. They are 50-41 and 5.5 games ahead of the Cubs.

I believe the Cubs still have a run in them but they are running out of time. Every day that goes by is one Chicago can’t get back. Make no doubt the Cubs are going for it this year. They traded to acquire Jose Quintana from the White Sox on Thursday for a strong package of talent. The Cubs’ starting pitching has failed them so far this year and they hope Quintana can help turn it around.

I still believe the Cubs will make a run and get their season back on track and make the playoffs. But I don’t think they will catch the Brewers. Even though the Rockies are 7.5 games ahead of the Cubs in the wild card race, Colorado is more vulnerable than Milwaukee. The Rockies' young starting pitching is starting to crumble. The Cubs will make the playoffs but only as a wild card team.

Spitting Seeds

- In his state of the game meeting with the media on Monday at the All-Star Game, Commissioner Rob Manfred said that the stadium issues of the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays are a priority for him before expansion could be considered. One thing the Commissioner can’t do is expand to 32 teams and then have two current clubs fail because of stadium issues.

Manfred mentioned Montreal, Charlotte and Mexico City as potential relocation/expansion options. Interestingly, he left Las Vegas off his list.

This is good news for baseball fans in Montreal. As an interpreter of "Commissioner-speak", what I heard from Manfred is that there will be baseball in two of the three cities at some point in the future. Not if, but when.

Montreal and Charlotte are better options than Mexico City. Where baseball would love to expand internationally, there are legitimate security concerns in Mexico City.

- The Boston Red Sox designated Pablo Sandoval for assignment on Friday. This is a bold move by the Sox considering they still owe Sandoval close to $50 million for the next three-plus years. For club president Dave Dombrowski, this move was made easier by the fact that he wasn’t the executive that signed Sandoval in the first place.

Sandoval's failure hurts even more because the Red Sox traded away Travis Shaw this off-season - he of course is now crushing it in Milwaukee (.299/.367/.570) with 19 homers and 65 RBI. That move stings Dombrowski far more than the Sandoval one. Boston does have prospect Rafael Devers at double-A who is having a great season. But it is unlikely they bring him up. There is speculation that they are focused on Martin Prado of the Miami Marlins to fill the void.

- Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera recently complained he is tired of hearing trade speculation around himself and his teammates. He had better get used to it, as the chatter will only increase and persist as the Tigers try to get their payroll more in line with their market size. Cabrera, Justin Verlander, JD Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton and Justin Wilson will all be dealt before their contracts expire with the Tigers. Detroit will likely have to eat a significant portion of the salaries for some of them as well. It is not a matter of if, only when.

The Tigers have a chance to become the Phillies - a very old team with unmovable contracts. It could be 10 years before they are ready to compete again.

- The best individual performance at the All-Star festivities didn’t belong to Home Run Derby winner Aaron Judge or Robbie Cano who was the MVP of the All-Star game. The best performance came from a participant in the celebrity softball game.

Hall of Famer Andre Dawson hit two home runs in that game. The amazing thing wasn’t the home runs themselves, it was that he didn’t just hit them over the temporary fence in the outfield set up specifically for the softball game. No, he hit two balls over the actual outfield wall at Marlins Park. And he did it one day before his 63rd birthday.

His swing sure didn’t look like a 63-year-old, but his jog around the bases did. His knees looked like they were killing him. In fact, they hurt so much that he just stopped running halfway between third and home on his second homer and walked to the make-shift dugout.

- The game is in very good shape with all of the young superstars. If the All-Star Futures Game is any indication, there are plenty more coming. Several young pitchers threw 100 mph in the game last Sunday. There are some guys that can fly around the bases and have more power too. I also saw some great outfield arms. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were there to represent the Blue Jays and in addition to their enormous talent, they both have charisma as well. They also seem to like each other. After Bichette lined out to end an inning as a member of Team USA, Guerrero, playing third base for the World Team, ran across the infield and patted his buddy on the back for hitting the ball hard. It would excite me as the GM of the Blue Jays to have such talented young men with great personalities that like each other.

- I have to admit that when I saw Nelson Cruz ask Yadier Molina to take his photo with umpire Joe West, I thought West put him up to it. West has been a lightning rod throughout his career, seeking attention at every turn. There were several times when I was broadcasting a game that I entered the booth and there waiting for our crew were Joe West country music CDs. Inevitably, before the first pitch of the games, West would look up to the broadcast booth and wave to us. He was hoping we would talk about his CD on the air to help sales. We never once mentioned it.

But I was glad to hear that Cruz just wanted to have fun and be funny, only using West as a prop. It is one of the most memorable moments from the All-Star Game.

MLB also assigned umpire Angel Hernandez to the game in Miami. Hernandez is the umpire who is suing MLB for discrimination, based upon being passed over for Crew Chief and playoff assignments. There is a shadow over Hernandez’s inclusion in the game now because of the suit. I can’t help but wonder whether he was thrown a bone to quell the lawsuit or strengthen MLB’s position in the case. It is ugly either way.

- Yankees’ starter Michael Pineda has been diagnosed with a partially torn UCL. He may be headed for Tommy John surgery, but first he is headed for a second opinion. This further calls into question whether the Yankees have a legitimate chance of October baseball this year. They already are challenged with their starting pitching and this makes it worse. That's another reason for Blue Jays fans to have hope. Every club has significant flaws in the American League except for the Astros.

Steve Phillips was general manager of the New York Mets from 1997 through 2003, helping lead the club to a National League championship in 2000 and its first World Series appearance since 1986. His analysis appears each week on TSN.ca, TSN Radio and SportsCentre.