Down to eight: Round 2 NHL Playoff Preview

The field is cut by half as eight teams remain in contention for the Stanley Cup. Get primed for the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs with TSN.ca's postseason preview of each series matchup with analysis from TSN's Scott Cullen, Travis Yost and Craig Button.

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

The Canadiens and Lightning face off just one year after the Montreal swept Tampa out of the first round.

A year ago, it was easy picking for the Canadiens, taking on a Lightning team missing starting goaltender Ben Bishop. But that's not an issue this year as both teams are relatively healthy.

That doesn't mean goaltending won't be front and centre in this year's matchup, because Montreal has relied heavily on Carey Price this season. Unless the Canadiens gain a possession or special teams edge on Tampa Bay, the Habs will need Price to be better than Bishop.

Both teams struggled on the power play in the first round, so if either power play gets on track, that could make a difference. It could also help lift the production of each team's elite goal-scorers. Steven Stamkos scored 43 goals in the regular season, but none in the first round against Detroit. He's overdue to start scoring. Max Pacioretty, who tallied 37 goals during the regular season, had two in the first round against Ottawa which included an empty netter.

With last year's playoff sweep in mind, the Lightning didn't give the Habs any breaks during the regular season, with Tampa averaging 38.2 shots on goal in all five wins. - By Scott Cullen

 

Travis Yost's Analytic Storyline

The regular season series between these two teams was nothing less than a bloodbath. The Bolts outscored the Habs 21-8 (10-5 at even strength) and perhaps more amazingly, may be one of only a handful of teams who truly contained P.K. Subban at even strength. Consider the numbers: With Subban on the ice, Tampa Bay outchanced Montreal 44-22 and outshot Montreal 92-60.

Craig Button's Pick

No power in the power plays - both teams combined to go 3-for-50 in the first round, hardly striking fear in their opponents. With no goals from Steven Stamkos in seven games, the NHL's highest scoring team won't find things any easier against Carey Price. Montreal has a resiliency to their game, but the Lightning showed plenty of that against Detroit. The speed of the Lightning will prove to be too much for the Canadiens - just like it did in the regular season.

 

Canadiens' Injuries: D Nathan Beaulieu (upper body, indefinitely)

 

Lightning Injuries: None.

 

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals

After a year away from from the playoffs, the Capitals are ready to renew renew postseason hostilities with the Rangers. New York knocked the Capitals out in seven games in 2012 and 2013. Not only do the Rangers hold the recent playoff edge, but they also took three of four games during the season.

The Rangers are coming off a low-scoring series against Pittsburgh, with each of the Blueshirts' four wins coming by a 2-1 score, so it was closer than indicated by a five-game series. Washington's first-round win over the New York Islanders was also close and went the full distance.

 
The Rangers thrive with their speed to attack in transition, which should post a challenge for Washington defensively. While the Capitals aren't as quick as the Rangers, Washington is coming off the biggest hitting series of the first round and could try to impose a physical advantage.

The contributions of snipers (Alex Ovechkin vs. Rick Nash), rookie centres (Evgeny Kuznetsov vs. Kevin Hayes) and goaltenders (Braden Holtby vs. Henrik Lundqvist) should help determine this series and the Rangers face a bit of a challenge from the start with Mats Zuccarello out indefinitely. - By Scott Cullen

 

Travis Yost's Analytic Storyline

What happens when the two best specialty units clash in a best-of-seven series? We'll find out here. The Capitals, as has been the case for most of the Alex Ovechkin era, carry the league's most dominant power play (third in the NHL in shot attempts generated per 60 minutes; first in the NHL in goals generated per 60 minutes). Their opponent, the New York Rangers, had the best shot-suppression per 60 rate of any team on the penalty kill - and nine shorthanded goals to boot. 

Craig Button's Pick

The Rangers are only team in the NHL that was Top 3 in goals for and goals against. The goals were difficult to come by against Pittsburgh, but this Rangers team is comfortable in tight games and should be with Lundqvist in the net. Washington found a balance in their game and the Caps showed the Islanders they don't always have to look to Ovechkin to win it for them. Washington is physical and will challenge the Rangers, but the league's most balanced team will move on to the Eastern Conference Final.

 

Rangers' Injuries: D Kevin Klein (arm, day-to-day), RW Mats Zuccarello (head, indefinitely)

 

Capitals' Injuries: C Eric Fehr (upper body, day-to-day)

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames

After sweeping through Winnipeg, the Ducks are the decided favourites against a Flames team that's been on an impressive run.

Even without Mark Giordano, Calgary capitalized on their chances against Vancouver in Round 1, eliminating the Canucks in six games. The hang-up on the Flames is that they've been a poor puck possession team and that's likely to be an issue against a Ducks team that was rapidly improving in that respect.

One way the Flames have defied the puck possession odds is by being high-percentage finishers, ranking second behind Tampa Bay in both 5-on-5 and overall shooting percentage during the regular season. That's traditionally been the Ducks' strength too, as they have the best team shooting percentage over the past three years and were tops in the first round. If the Flames are going to stifle Anaheim's attack, former Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller will have to be at his best.

A wild card in the series will be how the complementary forwards perform because both teams have leaned heavily on production from their top lines. Anaheim had some good contributions from Jakob Silfverberg and Andrew Cogliano in the first round, while the Flames got better-than-expected production from veterans David Jones and Matt Stajan as well as rookies Sam Bennett and Micheal Ferland.

 

Travis Yost's Analytic Storyline

The eight match-ups in the first-round of the playoffs were almost even from a possession-standpoint at 5-on-5 - the average gap between opponents was just 1.77 per cent (Score-Adjusted Fenwick Percentage). The Anaheim/Calgary draw in Round 2 figures to have the largest possession gap between any two teams this postseason, with Anaheim sitting at 51.5 per cent, and Calgary at just 45.7 per cent.

Craig Button's Pick

Calgary pushes the pace in the game, but so does Anaheim. Blueliners Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen give the Ducks exactly the same type of jump from the back end as the Flames get from their group. Anaheim is just as fast. Because Calgary gives up chances and are vulnerable to teams setting up residence in their defensive zone, the Ducks are ideally suited to move past the second round.  

 

Ducks' Injuries: None.

 

Flames' Injuries: LW Lance Bouma (upper body, day-to-day), D Mark Giordano (biceps, indefinitely), RW Paul Byron (lower body, indefinitely), D Raphael Diaz (lower body, indefinitely)

 

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Minnesota Wild

For the third time in three seasons, the Blackhawks and Wild meet again. Chicago won easily in five games in 2013 and took it in six last spring.
 
The Wild enters Round 2 as the league's hottest team since mid-January, going 28-9-3 in their last 40 regular season games before bouncing the Blues from the first round. A lot of credit goes to Devan Dubnyk, who was named a Vezina Trophy finalist after posting a .936 save percentage.

That stability stands in contrast to the Blackhawks, who turn to Corey Crawford to start this series after giving rookie Scott Darling more time against Nashville in Round 1. Crawford had a strong regular season, but stumbled in his first two starts against the Predators before earning a win in relief in the series clincher. He also had trouble in last year's Western Conference Final against Los Angeles, so he needs to start delivering quality playoff starts. Head coach Joel Quenneville won't hesitate to make a change.

Minnesota will have to improve their declining puck possession trend, as they ranked 20th in score-adjusted possession (48.4 per cent) after the trade deadline before ranking last (43.7 per cent) in the first round of the playoffs. It could be a real problem against a top Chicago team on possession that largely controlled even strength play against Nashville.

The Blackhawks had trouble scoring in the second half of the season, but with Patrick Kane back in the lineup they broke through in the first round against Vezina finalist Pekka Rinne. The challenge is to keep it going when facing another Vezina finalist in Dubnyk. The Blackhawks held a 3-1 advantage in head-to-head games during the regular season, but the last time they met was Feb. 3 - a relatively early time in Dubnyk's tenure. - By Scott Cullen

 

Travis Yost's Analytic Storyline

One interesting dynamic in this series? The Chicago Blackhawks had the most favourable percentage of scoring chances (52.6 per cent) of any team advancing out of the first round. The Minnesota Wild, who drew into a tough round-one match-up against the St. Louis Blues, carry the weakest percentage of scoring chances (44.8 per cent) into Round 2.

Craig Button's Pick

This comes down to goaltending. Dubnyk gives the Wild a big advantage in the cage and while Chicago starts Crawford, Minnesota is capable of pushing him to the bench. The Wild beat a very capable Blues team and pushed the Hawks hard in last year's six-game series. They're also disciplined and will push the Chicago out of the playoffs en route to the Western Conference Final.

 

Blackhawks' Injuries: None.

 

Wild Injuries: D Keith Ballard (concussion, indefinitely)