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The Blue Jays enter the All Star break in a pretty good position relative to where they were a year ago at this time.  Last year they headed to the break in fourth place in the AL East with a 45-46 record.  They are currently 49-39 and are the first wild card team.  They trail the Orioles by just two games in the division.  

Alex Anthopoulos made big deals at the trade deadline last year adding David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe and Ben Revere.  The moves propelled the Jays to the best record in the AL over the final two months of the year.   The Jays went on to win the AL East and made a nice run in October.  

This year the Jays will need to supplement their roster again in order to get to October baseball.  They have a good enough roster to beat out the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees and Rays as they are currently constituted, but there are no guarantees that any or all of those teams will stand pat at the deadline.  It is highly likely that at least Baltimore and Boston will be buyers like the Jays.  

Toronto’s starting pitchers are 39-20 with a 3.69 ERA.  They have the most wins of any AL rotation and the second best ERA.  The rotation has depth and balance but lacks a true ace.  Marco Estrada and Aaron Sanchez are among the six AL starters with a sub-3.00 ERA.  Marcus Stroman has had some struggles but seems to be back on track.  

JA Happ looks a lot more like the guy we saw with the Pirates last season than the guy who pitched for the Jays previously.  And that is good.  RA Dickey is still RA Dickey.  The rotation could use a proven ace but there aren’t any available and the Jays don’t have the depth in their farm system to get one anyways.  

Toronto may need to add another starter if they follow through on the move to send Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen to protect his innings total for the year.  Drew Hutchison is better as a backup for the back end of the rotation, not the front.  

The Jays bullpen has to be an area to target for Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins.  They are 9-19 with a 4.19 ERA.  The pen has the most losses in the AL. I can’t imagine that the Jays would add a closer and demote Roberto Osuna so they will likely add a solid set-up man.  Plus they will need one of Drew Storen or Brett Cecil to improve dramatically in the second half.  If they don’t, then they will likely need to add a second reliever.  

Offensively, the club is coming to life, although they have scored 42 fewer runs this year compared to last year.  Ideally, the Jays need Devon Travis to take over the leadoff spot in the lineup because when Jose Bautista gets back he would be much better in his normal run producing spot in the lineup.  Otherwise they don’t need any major acquisitions.  

The good news for the Jays is that both the Orioles and Red Sox need starting pitching. It is highly unlikely however, that there will be any impact starters available via trade.  They will compete against each other at the deadline for mostly second tier arms.  The Sox have a distinct advantage over the Orioles because of the depth of their farm system.  

So the Jays need a reliever and maybe a back end of the rotation starter.  Toronto doesn’t have great depth in the minor leagues but they will be able to afford the talent it will take to make those kinds of deals.  

The Yankee Way?

You notice I didn’t include the New York Yankees as competition for the Jays in the division or at the deadline.  This season has been a series of stops and starts for the Yanks.  New York has a great bullpen but they haven’t maximized the quality because of the poor starting pitching they have received.  The Yankees are nowhere near the offensive juggernaut they have once been.  They don’t have the roster to be a playoff team this year.  

Under normal circumstances, the Yankees sound like a team that would sell at the deadline.  But these are the Yankees.  Waving the white flag is unheard of.  Rebuilding is a dirty word in the Bronx.  My sources with the Yankees indicate that the baseball people are willing to trade anyone on their roster.  Ownership on the other hand would prefer to hold on to the hope of a late season surge.  

Therefore, the Yankees will not be buyers or sellers; they will be buyers and sellers.

Look for the Yankees to trade Aroldis Chapman and possibly Andrew Miller.  There have been recent reports that Miller has been told he wouldn’t be traded but that can change.  I suspect they will trade Carlos Beltran as well.  In the meantime I could see the Yankees inquiring on players who are under control and in the pre-prime of their career like Sonny Gray or Matt Moore.  

If I were running the Yankees, I would trade everyone. I would trade Miller, Chapman and Beltran.  I would consider a move for Dellin Betances too.  I would see if I could find a taker on CC Sabathia to get out from under his vesting option for next year.  I would see if I could eat salary and trade Mark Teixeira, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner.  If you want Brian McCann, you can have him.   

I want financial flexibility and I want as many prospects as I can get.  Because it is such a weak free agent market this winter, teams that want to dramatically improve, will have to do so by making trades.  Prospects will be the currency needed more than dollars.  

Every general manager has to look in the mirror and be honest with himself about his club.  Now that we have experienced the two-team Wild Card format for a few years it will be interesting to see how aggressively clubs will be just to get to the one game wild card playoff.  

Central Scouting

The NL Central is the most intriguing division.  Sure the Cubs are 20 games over .500 and have a healthy lead, but they haven’t played very well lately.  Can they be caught?

The Cards (-8.5 gb) and the Pirates (-9 gb) have been playoff regulars each of the past several years.  But they are both going to have to gauge their chance of catching the Cubs plus the cost/benefit of any deal to get in the wild card game.  I truly don’t believe that either club will catch Chicago.  The Pirates have been in the wild card game each of the last three years, winning one of them.  The Cards have won the division the past three years, so the wild card would be a new challenge for them.  

I expect Cardinals GM, John Mozeliak, to treat this potential playoff pursuit like he did when it was clear he would win the division.  The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, after finishing the season with a mediocre 83-78 record.  No one thought they had a chance but once they got there they got hot at the right time.  So why not this season as a wild card team?

Neil Huntington, the Pirates GM, will go for it too.  He recognizes that as a small market team, the Pirates’ window to win may soon close.  If he has a shot this season, he must go for it.

If I were the GM for both of these teams I would go for it, just like I would if I was running the Cubs.  There will be only 10 teams that have a shot at winning the World Series once the regular season is over.  I want to be one of those teams even if I have to overcome the challenge of the wild card game.  

You are not promised anything in this game.  There are no guarantees that your team can or will compete the next year.  Injuries, age and underperformance can destroy even the best of rosters from one year to the next.  I have always functioned with the mentality to “Go For It” when I had a chance to make the playoffs.  Remember it’s not the best team that wins the World Series it is the team that is playing the best.  

The Cards need to upgrade their pitching if they are going to win with the bullpen as a priority.  The Pirates need to add a starter so they aren’t relying upon their two young rookies, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, to have to carry the load.  

I think the Cubs win the division with the Cardinals finishing second and the Pirates a close third.  The Cards will be the second wild card team.  The Pirates will come up a bit short this season.

Spitting Seeds

I feel so badly for Marco Estrada.  He has worked so hard and persevered to earn himself All Star game recognition only to be placed on the DL with a sore back.  You may think I’m Scrooge, but I wouldn’t want Estrada to even go to San Diego for the experience.  A six-hour plane flight there and back can’t be good for his back.  

The AL fans did a much better job of picking the right players for the All-Star Game than NL fans did.  The only mistake the AL fans made was voting in Eric Hosmer over Miguel Cabrera.  The NL fans only got two starters right:  Anthony Rizzo and Yeonis Cespedes.  

Nationals’ catcher, Wilson Ramos, deserves to start at catcher over Buster Posey.  Washington second baseman, Daniel Murphy, has had a better season than the Cubs’ Ben Zobrist while Dodgers’ rookie shortstop, Corey Seager, crushes the Cubs’ Addison Russell.  

Nolan Arrenado of the Rockies deserves to represent the NL at third base over Kris Bryant.   The Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez and Pirates’ Gregory Polanco deserve to be All Stars over Dexter Fowler and yes, Bryce Harper.