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The strongest component of the Toronto Blue Jays was their starting rotation when the 2017 season began. But after a bit of underperformance and some injuries, Toronto’s starting rotation is currently ranked seventh in the American League in ERA. If the Jays are going to make the kind of run required to win the division, the key will be the starting staff.

The return of Aaron Sanchez from his blister problem is going to be critical, but veteran righty Marco Estrada, who has had a tough go if it lately, is the guts and glue of the staff. Estrada gave up a career-high 12 hits in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s always held the opposition to a low batting average against, but hitters are faring much better against him this season.

Estrada often throws an 88-90 mph high fastball by hitters because they’re so aware of the changeup he throws down in the zone. The changeup is his put-away pitch and highly deceptive to hitters. It disrupts a batter’s timing with a significant decrease in velocity from the fastball, plus it changes the hitter’s eye level as it sinks down in the zone. This often forces a batter to get caught in between the two pitches – behind the fastball and ahead of the changeup. 

Estrada’s changeup has been up in the zone lately, making it easier to track. This has led to more hits against the fastball (.255) and changeup (.230). In 2016, Estrada held opponents to a .206 batting average on the heater and a .161 average on the changeup. His cutter (.346) and curveball (.462) aren’t faring all that well either.

Estrada said he feels great physically, so his struggles are more mechanical and mental. Those two things are often tied together. It’s always hard to identify which comes first ­– bad thinking that leads to bad mechanics or bad mechanics that leads to bad thinking. The solution is usually the same: fine-tune the mechanics while preaching aggressiveness.

Estrada will work to tweak his mechanics while looking to regain confidence in his pitches. He needs to throw the changeup with conviction and not push it in order to get its sinking movement. He will make the adjustment in his bullpen sessions between starts. I’m confident that Estrada will figure it out. When he’s locked in, it sets a tone for the rest of the rotation. His confidence is evident when he executes his plan and others feed off of it.

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Orioles having a terrible June

The Jays aren’t the only club looking for pitching improvement. The Baltimore Orioles had a pretty good month of April, going 15-8 with a 4.19 ERA. May was a not quite as good, as they went 12-16 with a 4.48 ERA. June has been a catastrophe. The Orioles are 5-8 with a league-worst 7.03 ERA.

Obviously, things are deteriorating quickly for them. They don’t have a starter with an ERA under 5.00 in June. Baltimore’s problem is that they started off with less pitching than most teams in the division, giving them a small margin for error. They’re built with a mediocre starting rotation and very good bullpen. The loss of Zach Britton at the end of the game has weakened the overall bullpen results. The rotation has collapsed, other than Dylan Bundy. 

To compound the problem, they’re also struggling offensively. The Orioles were eighth in runs scored in both April and May, but are 12th in June. As the pitching has struggled, the offence has felt the pressure to perform but isn’t getting the job done.

Defensively, they have always been sure-handed despite limited range. This year they’re ranked 10th in fielding percentage. It seems the Orioles are springing leaks in every component of the game. 

Their biggest underachievers are third baseman Manny Machado and starter Kevin Gausman. Machado, a perennial MVP candidate, is scuffling with a .218/.292/.423 slash line. His contact rate is down and strikeouts are way up. When a club’s most reliably good player is underperforming by so much it affects everyone on the roster. Gausman was supposed to emerge as the ace of the staff this season. Instead he is 3-5 with a 6.49 ERA. The league is hitting an amazing .332 against him.

Young players can have bad seasons but this seems contagious. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in Baltimore they will finish in last place.

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Judge the new face of baseball

One team that doesn’t have to worry about offence is the New York Yankees.

Rookie phenom Aaron Judge continues to crush the ball in historic fashion. He leads the AL in homers and runs scored, while sitting second in batting average and RBI. He already has people talking about the Triple Crown.

To put what he is doing in perspective: His 22 homers has already matched the single-season high by an AL rookie over the last three seasons (Houston's Carlos Correa-had 22 in 2015)  Judge was the sixth player in Major League history to hit at least 26 home runs in his first 86 games. He was also one of five players in Yankees history to hit at least 22 homers through 61 games, joining Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris and Alex Rodriguez. That’s pretty lofty company for a rookie.

It’s hard to believe that he’s the same guy who struck out in 42 of his 84 at-bats last season. He looked lost and overmatched, but he went home and worked in the off-season. He shortened his stroke and eliminated some big holes in his swing. Then he came into spring training and had instant positive results, which helped rebuild his confidence.

According to Elias, Judge is the first hitter in MLB history to be at least 6-feet-7 tall and weigh at least 282 pounds. When I interviewed him at the past two spring trainings it felt like he was shorter. His shoulders were slumped and he seemed a bit unsure of himself. He spoke quietly, hoping his teammates wouldn’t hear him.

Now I see a man who is confident and sure of himself. His posture has changed with his new-found belief in himself, making look every bit of 6-feet-7.  The confidence that oozes out of him with a bat in his hands now comes through in interviews. He has hit the late-night talk show circuit. He is funny and charming and amazingly humble. He has New York in the palm of his hand. Heck, they’ve created his own cheering section called the Judge’s Chambers.

The slugging right fielder has quickly become the face of the Yankees organization. It’s a lot to put on such a young man but he has the right disposition. Manager Joe Girardi said Judge reminds him of Derek Jeter in the way he carries himself. Jeter always did and said the right thing. There is no higher praise for a baseball player in New York.

It remains to be seen how historic this season can be for Judge. He has hit the four hardest balls in the game and five of the top six. He has the longest home run so far at 495 feet. There isn’t a stadium that can hold him. 

Baseball keeps searching for someone to become the new face of the game. Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Mike Trout are always mentioned in the discussion.  The problem is that Machado is really struggling this season, Harper never smiles and Trout smiles but doesn’t say much.

Judge is different. He’s enormous and interesting. He is the one.

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Spitting Seeds

- Judge is an amazing story with his dramatic turnaround from last season. The pitching version of Judge is Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Jose Berrios. Berrios was 3-7 with an 8.02 ERA in 2016. The league hit .310 against him, he had a 1.87 WHIP and opponents slugged 12 homers in just 58.1 innings pitched. This year he’s had a dramatic transformation. He is 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and a miniscule 0.96 WHIP. Allowing half as many baserunners and far fewer home runs is a much better formula for success.

- I know it isn’t possible for Trout to be forgotten while out with injury, but Eric Young Jr. of the Angels is trying his best. Since his call up he is hitting .333/.429/.556. He has three home runs, 10 RBI, 14 runs scored and six stolen bases in just 16 games. In Wednesday night’s 7-5 win over the Yankees, Young had two hits, scored a run, drove in a run, stole a base, threw a runner out at the plate and made a diving catch on a Judge liner. He’s making a strong statement that the Angels need to make a spot for him when Trout returns. What makes this even more special is Young and his wife welcomed a baby boy into the world in January, but the baby was three months premature and didn’t make it. He has turned that tragedy into inspiration, looking for the positive. He certainly seems to be finding it. 

- Major League Baseball announced that August 25-27 will be Players Weekend. All players will be allowed to express themselves – within reason – outside the norm of the uniforms. Players will be allowed to wear flashy shoes, place nicknames on the back of their uniforms in place of their last names and personalize a patch on the jersey acknowledging someone who helped them in the baseball development. This was a deal negotiated between the players association and MLB, showing a joint effort in growing the game. I love the idea as it will engage so many young fans in a way never before seen in baseball stadiums.

- The New York Mets are extending the netting behind the plate to further protect their fans.  I am not sure why every team doesn’t do this. Why are we waiting to extending the netting in every ballpark? I know there is hesitancy because it may hinder the view of the higher-priced seating, but those are the very people the team is trying to protect. There is new technology that hinders the view less than netting in the past. If someone were to die from a batted ball or broken bat, every team in baseball would extend the netting. Let’s not wait to do the right thing.

- The trade deadline should be very interesting this year. It’s hard to tell who the sellers will be in the AL. Some teams are going to have to make very tough decisions about whether or not they’re going for it. Heading into play on Friday, 13 teams are within two games of a playoff spot. Whether it is parity or mediocrity that has so many clubs bunched together, it sure looks like we will have a great race this year. In the NL, there are the only six teams even within four games of a playoff spot. The NL West is a great race: The Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies are three of the four clubs in baseball with at least 40 wins. The Nationals are the class of the NL East, even with their substantial bullpen issues, as they have a 9.5 game lead over the Mets. The Brewers sit atop the NL Central, but at some point I expect the Cubs to go on a run and leave everyone else in the dust.  In fact, I dare say the NL races are almost over. All three of the NL West powerhouses will make the postseason – it’s just a matter of which team wins the division. The Nats will win the East and it is highly likely the Cubs will win the Central, but I guess we should probably still play the games.

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Steve Phillips was general manager of the New York Mets from 1997 through 2003, helping lead the club to a National League championship in 2000 and its first World Series appearance since 1986. His analysis appears each week on TSN.ca, TSN Radio and SportsCentre