Jun 2, 2017
Strong May has Blue Jays back in the mix
Toronto might still be in last place in the AL East, but the past month is proof the team will be playing meaningful games in September, Steve Phillips writes.
The Toronto Blue Jays finished April with an 8-17 record – good for last place in the AL East. They averaged 3.6 runs per game, while slugging only 22 homers (ranked 13th in AL). They had a team OPS of .645 and the pitching staff ranked 10th with a 4.14 ERA.
Toronto’s early-season struggles were somewhat explainable given the significant number of injuries they suffered, coupled with underperformance by some of the remaining players. No team would be able to live up to expectations with the losses suffered by the Jays. There is a saying in baseball that you can’t win a division in April but you can lose it. It sure felt like Toronto was done.
The team was still in last place at the end of May, but it certainly feels different. The Jays went 18-10 in the month, in part because the pitching was better with a 4.03 ERA. But it’s the offence that has dramatically improved, averaging 5.3 runs per game while crushing 49 homers. They also had the second-best OPS (.809) in the month.
The offensive turnaround was led by Devon Travis (.364/.373/.646) and Jose Bautista (.317/.412/644). Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak combined for 14 homers and 38 RBI. Utility man Ryan Goins made a major contribution with 16 RBI and centre fielder Kevin Pillar scored 20 runs. Russell Martin, who spent time on the disabled list, came back swinging the bat much better. Then Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki were activated from the DL, which lengthened the lineup.
Manager John Gibbons deserves a ton of credit for keeping the ship steady. He never panicked while they were undermanned, helping oversee the emergence of Smoak as an offensive threat, the assimilation of Morales, the transition of Joe Biagini to a starter and the rebuilding of the bullpen. Most importantly, he kept a faith and belief in the clubhouse that things would get better.
Looking back at the first two months of the season, the team that went 18-10 in May is much better representation of the true talent level of the club. They are getting healthy and living up to expectations. I believe the Blue Jays can sustain this high level of play.
There will be some struggles and they will lose some series. They may even get swept here and there. But this team will be playing significant and meaningful games in September. They will be buyers and not sellers, as general manager Ross Atkins proclaimed a week or so ago.
I expect the Yankees to fall back to the pack very soon because of their questionable starting pitching. Look for Yanks’ GM Brian Cashman to fortify his staff though. The Red Sox will play better baseball and make a run. Plus, they still have the ability to improve because of the depth of their farm system. The Orioles will finish a game or two over .500 because of their lack of starting pitching and inconsistent offence. The Tampa Bay Rays can slug with the big boys, but they don’t manufacture runs, are shaky on defence and lack overall depth. They will finish in last place again.
The Blue Jays are right back in the mix; they just need to stay healthy.
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Another baseball brawl
Major League Baseball got a lot of attention this week for all the wrong reasons: a brawl stemming from a plunking of Washington Nationals slugger Bryce Harper.
Harper charged San Francisco Giants reliever Hunter Strickland, who intentionally hit him with a fastball in the hip. The benches emptied when the two fought on the mound.
Strickland threw at Harper because he was holding a grudge from almost three years ago when Harper hit two postseason homers against him. Even though the Giants won the series over the Nats in 2014 and went on to win the World Series, Strickland wanted revenge.
MLB issued a four-game suspension to Harper and a six-game suspension to Strickland for their actions. Harper appealed his suspension and it was reduced to three games. Strickland is also appealing, but I can’t imagine his suspension will be reduced. The penalties were close to what I anticipated, but I sure would have loved for the league to make an example of Strickland for his selfish and immature actions.
The league is limited by past precedent on the issue. If it had suspended Strickland for 20 games to send a message to him and any other pitcher who thinks this sort of thing is a good idea, the Major League Baseball Players Association would have filed a grievance and won. Past practices matter in labour situations when a union is involved. Any penalty beyond where the league went previously would have been taken to an arbitrator. The first thing an arbitrator would do is look at how this sort of situation had been handled in the past.
I would have charged the mound, just like Harper did. I bet commissioner Rob Manfred and his director of baseball operations, Joe Torre, would have done the same. Some have wondered why Harper should have been punished at all, considering his response was reasonable and understandable. Baseball had to suspend him because the league can’t be seen as condoning a player charging the mound under any circumstances.
I thought Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija should have been suspended as well. He came flying out of the dugout with full intent to exact a pound of flesh from Harper. Unfortunately for him, he stumbled and collided with his teammate Michael Morse and never made it to Harper. Morse suffered a concussion from the collision.
One guy who avoided any discipline was Giants catcher Buster Posey. Once Harper got plunked, Posey betrayed the unwritten rules of baseball brawling etiquette in a pretty obvious manner. When a pitcher hits a batter, the catcher is taught to move quickly from behind the plate into the path of the batter so he can’t get to the pitcher. Posey shrugged his shoulders when Harper got hit and just stood there as the Nats slugger raced to the mound. Posey didn’t move until Harper and Strickland were throwing punches. It was shocking to see. Then once he made his way out from behind the plate, he never engaged a single Nationals player. He just stood 10 to 15 feet away from the scrum of players all grabbing on to each other, never taking off his mask or catcher’s mitt.
There could be any number of reasons Posey didn’t stop Harper: 1) He doesn’t like Strickland and didn’t mind if he got beaten up; 2) Strickland told him about his intent to bean Harper and asked him not to get in the way; and 3) Posey wanted to avoid becoming the target of a Nationals pitcher if they chose to retaliate. No matter what the reason, it looks bad and makes you wonder about the cohesiveness of the Giants’ clubhouse.
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Struggling Cubs still NL Central favourites
The Chicago Cubs ran the table last year. It wasn’t easy, but they broke the famous curse and had a storybook ending. They rode the high feeling that comes with winning the entire off-season. There was an expectation in the media – and even among baseball people – that the Cubs were building a dynasty. It seemed like a fait accompli that the Cubs would be back in the World Series. They’ve learned very quickly that there are still other good teams and that clubs elevate their level of play against them.
The biggest issue for the Cubs is their starting pitching. In 2016, they led all of baseball as the starters went 81-39 with a 2.96 ERA. The next closest starting rotation was the Nationals, who went 72-44 with a 3.60 ERA. This season, the starters are 20-18 with a 4.64 ERA – ranked 22nd in baseball. Plus, the offence has fallen from third in runs scored to 14th. On top of those struggles, the defence is significantly compromised. They had the best defensive efficiency in 2016 but are ranked 21st this year. They are worse in every component of the game.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that no other NL Central team has emerged or shown the ability to separate from the rest of the division. The Cubs will get better. They have too much talent not to.
They will play better when the starting pitching stabilizes. They also need to option left fielder Kyle Schwarber to the minors to clear his mind and get his swing back. Schwarber has failed in the leadoff spot. The Cubs desperately miss Dexter Fowler. Schwarber leading off is like pounding a square peg into a round hole. He doesn’t fit the role. He will be a good hitter again. There is no shame in being sent down to the minors to find your confidence. The Cubs can’t afford Schwarber’s struggling bat and below-average defence in left field. The young slugger can go down to Iowa, fix himself and make a major contribution later in the season.
It won’t be easy, but the Cubs will win the NL Central and will be playing in October once again.
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Spitting Seeds
- There were 1060 home runs hit in May. That’s the second highest total in a single month ever. The most ever came in May 2000, when there were 1069 dingers. As you’ll recall, the 2000 season was in the heart of the steroid era. So why are we seeing so many homers now? It is not because of steroids. It’s primarily because of velocity and launch angle. Pitchers are throwing harder and players are hitting the bottom of the baseball more and more, creating backspin. Plus, just about every hitter has a leg kick now, generating more energy in their bottom half and transferring that into power to deliver the bat to the ball.
- New York Mets mascot Mr. Met has been fired. Well, not exactly. One of the several people the team employs to wear the uniform during the season has been fired. During Wednesday night’s game against the Brewers, Mr. Met flipped off some fans. You know things are going bad when the fans are heckling the team mascot to the point that he flips them off. I wonder how Mr. Met even heard the heckling considering he doesn’t have ears. Also, can he really stick up his middle finger when he only has four fingers on each hand?
- Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout had surgery on Wednesday for a torn ligament in his left thumb. He will likely be out for at least six weeks. Although it doesn’t disqualify him from the MVP race, it will certainly make it difficult for him to accumulate the numbers necessary to win the award again. The primary beneficiary of Trout’s absence seems to be Yankee slugger Aaron Judge. Judge’s 17 homers and 41 runs scored lead the AL. His OBP/SLG/OPS are all ranked second to Trout. Judge is the leading candidate to dethrone the reigning MVP.
- Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon is having another amazing season. He’s hitting .320/.355/.610 with 13 homers and 47 RBI. Those 47 runs driven in are the most in all of baseball. He’s trying to do something that has never been done: leading the league in RBI from the leadoff spot in the lineup. Blackmon is hitting .438 with runners in scoring position and 25 of the 47 RBI have come with two outs. Certainly, Blackmon deserves the credit for this, but so does the bottom of the Rockies lineup. They are regularly getting on base, giving their centre fielder plenty of opportunities.
- There are multiple reports that former Florida governor Jeb Bush has withdrawn his consideration of buying the Miami Marlins. Bush had been tied to a group with Derek Jeter as a leading partner. It’s unclear how Bush’s departure will impact the group’s pursuit as they seemed to have had the early lead in the purchase. It may very well mean that the group consisting of Tagg Romney, Tom Glavine, and Dave Stewart moves to the front of the line if Jeter can’t easily replace Bush’s position in his group.
- Since 1995, 63 per cent of teams leading their division on Memorial Day have gone on to make it to the postseason. The division leaders on Memorial Day this year, in order of their likelihood of making the playoffs are: the Astros, Nationals, Rockies, Yankees, Cardinals and Twins. The Astros and Nats are sure things for me to make it to October. The remaining four teams have some level of vulnerability. The Rockies are young and there is always a concern about their pitching holding up in the high altitude. The Yankees are in a very tough division and their starting pitching is unpredictable. The Cardinals defence and offence have been inconsistent at best, plus the NL West is so deep that it may send three teams to the playoffs. The Twins pitching just isn’t deep enough to keep hold of the postseason dream.
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Steve Phillips was general manager of the New York Mets from 1997 through 2003, helping lead the club to a National League championship in 2000 and its first World Series appearance since 1986. His analysis appears each week on TSN.ca, TSN Radio and SportsCentre