Which Chicago team will be better in 2015?

It was a rough 2014 for baseball in the Windy City, as the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox both missed the playoffs.  The Second City rivals finished with identical 73-89 records and both were 17 games back in their respective Central Divisions.

Neither team has made the post-season since both won their divisions in 2008 and while the White Sox won the World Series in 2005, the Cubs have captured only one playoff series since their last championship in 1908.

2015 could be a year where new found success blows into Chicago, and while neither will start the season as World Series favorites, the post-season could be within their sights.

Each team has developed home-grown talent and made prominent off-season moves, but who had the better off-season and who has a better shot in 2015?

Key Off-Season Additions

White Sox: LF Melky Cabrera, LHP Zach Duke, LHP Dan Jennings, 1B Adam LaRoche, RHP David Robertson, RHP Jeff Samardzija

Cubs: OF Dexter Fowler, SP Jason Hammel, INF Tommy LaStella, SP Jon Lester, Joe Maddon, C Miguel Montero, C David Ross

U.S. Cellular Field is considered a hitters ballpark, tying for seventh in 2014 MLB Park Factors at a rate of 1.052.  For context, Coors Field in Colorado ranks first with a rate of 1.501 while Safeco Field in Seattle is at the bottom at 0.825.

U.S. Cellular ranks 13th in Home Run Factors at 1.049, while Yankee Stadium rates first at 1.468. LaRoche’s former home, Nationals Park, ranked 29th in Home Run Factors at 0.701, so the move should benefit his power.

The White Sox also have speed on the base paths in Alexei Ramirez who swiped a career high 21 bases in 2014, while only being caught four times.  It was the third-straight year he stole at least 20.

Newcomer Melky Cabrera had a strong 2014 with the Blue Jays, scoring 81 runs with a .351 on-base percentage in 139 games before having his season cut short by surgery.   He could be primed to top those numbers, if he can remain healthy and a fixture in the lineup.

Avisail Garcia is one to watch for a breakout campaign. After appearing in eight games at the start of the 2014 season, the 23-year old had to have shoulder surgery.  He was able to put that injury behind him in mid-August and hit five home runs and had 25 RBIs in 142 at bats.

Meanwhile on the North Side, the Cubs have a young lineup with a high amount of promise, with more on the way in the minor leagues.

The team is led by first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who was second in the National League in home runs with 32 while playing in 140 games.  The Fort Lauderdale, Florida native made huge strides last season by improving his average to a career-high .286 and having an impressive .386 on-base percentage, good for seventh in all of the majors.

Starlin Castro rebounded last season, having solid numbers across the board before having his season cut short due to injury in early September.  The shortstop’s 14 home runs and 65 RBIs were on pace to be career-highs before suffering a high ankle sprain.

Arismendy Alcantara came up in mid-July and showed great power-speed potential with 10 home runs and eight steals, though his pace slowed down as he struggled in September with only one steal and an OBP which slumped to .195 for the month.

Javier Baez and Jorge Soler made statements with home runs in their major league debuts, but both fizzled down the stretch. The power potential is almost limitless for both, but they need to get more consistency, especially Baez, who whiffed 95 times in 52 games.

Top third base prospect Kris Bryant is almost ready for Major League action and could make the team with a hot spring.  Bryant hit 43 home runs between double-A and triple-A last season and was named Baseball America’s 2014 Minor League Player of the Year.

Bryant’s chances of starting out of the gate increased with the Cubs dealing third baseman Luis Valbuena to the Houston Astros. In return, the Cubs received Dexter Fowler. The speedy outfielder stole only 11 bases last season in 116 games, but has a career .366 OBP which should continue to lead to stolen base opportunities and scoring threats potentially atop the Cubs’ lineup.
 

The White Sox have one of the best pitchers in baseball in rotation ace Chris Sale. Still only 25, Sale missed about a month’s worth of action in May due to a strained flexor muscle, but finished off healthy and better than ever. The southpaw placed third in the majors in ERA (2.17) and fourth in walks and hits per Innings pitched (0.97), both career-bests.

Sale is followed by Jeff Samardzija, who they acquired through a trade with the Oakland Athletics. This is arguably the White Sox’s most important off-season addition, as pointed out by White Sox General Manager Rick Hahn.

"Jeff is one of the elite right-handed starting pitchers in baseball, and we believe his addition to our roster gives us the potential for a formidable starting rotation," Hahn said in a statement in December. "His competitiveness fits well in our clubhouse, on the mound and in our city."

The righty’s 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP were bests among his career as a starter between the Cubs and the Athletics in 2014.
Jose Quintana, who should slot behind Samardzija in the rotation, has had a solid start to his career, posting a 3.50 ERA in his first three seasons in the majors, and is just about to turn 26.

Perhaps the most important acquisition between both teams was the Cubs signing prized free-agent starter Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million deal.  After two down seasons by his standards, Lester had a stellar bounce back 201, finishing eighth in the majors in ERA (2.46) and in strikeouts (220).

“This definitely propels us into Plan A, which is kind of neat. It’s a big day for us moving forward,” said new Cubs manager Joe Maddon. ”It’s not often you get to win the lottery. We won the baseball lottery so far this year. It’s up to us now to put it in effect.

“It’s all theory right now. We’ve got to make it real. But you need pieces like this to make it real.”

28-year old pitcher Jake Arrieta, who never lived up to his potential in Baltimore, broke out last season on the North Side with a 2.53 ERA, an 0.99 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 156 and two-thirds innings. He should slot right behind Lester in the rotation

Jason Hammel returned to the Cubs as a free-agent after they traded him mid-season to the Athletics.  Hammel had a 3.48 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP between both teams last season, which are solid numbers for a number three in a rotation.
 

The White Sox had four different relievers last season who earned at least six saves. The carousel of closers will be no more as they inked free-agent closer David Robertson to a four-year, $46 million contract. The righty had 39 saves and stuck out 96 batters in 64 and a third innings in 2014 for the New York Yankees.

The Sox also brought in left handers Zach Duke and Dan Jennings, strengthening an overall position proved to be of critical importance by Central Division foes the Kansas City Royals.

“The way we see it, we have X dollars to spend and Y number of needs,” Hahn said last December. “It’s more a question of how do we allocate to make the most impact on the 2015 club and beyond. Do we try to acquire to fill a certain need via trade or do we dip into the free agent market to address that need and look for a trade in another spot.”

Hector Rondon was solid as closer for the Cubs in 2014, saving 29 games for a team without many save opportunities. The righty posted a great ERA of 2.42 and WHIP of 1.06. Pedro Strop and Neil Ramirez were successful for the Cubs, including Ramirez’s 1.44 ERA in 43 and two-thirds innings.

With the additions of Lester and Hammel, starters Jacob Turner and Edwin Jackson could be moved to the bullpen where they can be more effective in less of a role.

Divisional Scope

The American League Central Division could be the most competitive division in the league. The Detroit Tigers have won the division four-straight times. The Royals were the American League Champions while the Cleveland Indians finished only three games back of the second Wild Card. The Minnesota Twins are also looking to improve under new manager Paul Molitor.

The White Sox are not the only team in their division with top flight pitchers, as the AL Central currently contains three of the last four AL Cy Young Award winners (Corey Kluber, David Price, Justin Verlander).

The National League Central Division is not easy to top by any means. The St. Louis Cardinals have taken the crown the past two years while making the post-season in four-straight. The Pittsburgh Pirates finally broke out of their two-decade-long slump in 2013 and have played in the last two NL Wild Card games.  The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers had disappointing seasons in 2014 and seem to be in transition, but won the division in 2012 and 2011 respectively.

The White Sox, a team who really only excelled in the power category, added to that while strengthening their rotation and bullpen substantially.  The Cubs bolstered their rotation while their young core is now a year older. The Sox need to drastically improve in the field defensively while the Cubs could stand to get better there as well.

Lost in everything might be the Cubs hiring Joe Maddon to be their manager.  Maddon led a young Tampa Bay Rays team to the post-season four times in nine seasons, including to an AL pennant in 2008. The Rays reached 90 wins five times under Maddon while finishing above .500 from 2008-2013. The 60-year old skipper is expected to do for the Cubs what he accomplished with the Rays.

2015 is where the White Sox may have the edge. They should challenge for the division and if not, will be right in the Wild Card mix. It is unlikely that the Cubs will challenge for the division and the Wild Card might be slightly out of reach this season, though 2016 and beyond looks very bright.

Who had the better off-season and who has a better shot in 2015?