Contingency plans unclear for 2026 World Cup wildfire smoke risks

While some organizations have published clear air quality thresholds or contingency protocols for wildfire smoke, FIFA's plans remain unclear less than a year out from the 2026 World Cup.

A day after Toronto’s air quality was among the worst in the world, the organizing committee for the World Cup in Canada declined to reveal guidelines for postponement or air-quality-related contingencies with FIFA. No policies are posted publicly.

The World Cup will run from June 11 to July 19, 2026 in Canada, Mexico and the United States. Canada will stage 13 games — seven in Vancouver and six in Toronto.

The Air Quality Health Index rating for Toronto was over 10, or "very high risk," on Monday morning, dropping to a "high risk" rating of 8 by late afternoon.

In the CFL, meanwhile, games can’t be played when the AQHI surpasses a threshold of seven, according to an agreement with the players. CFL stadiums are also equipped with air-quality sensors to provide real-time readings.

The CFL postponed the Saskatchewan Roughriders-Calgary Stampeders game in Regina from Friday night to Saturday afternoon this past weekend due to air quality issues, as wildfires from northern Saskatchewan pushed the AQHI above 10.

Many minor soccer associations in Canada also recommend delaying or rescheduling games if the AQHI is 7 or higher.

Dr. Howard Shapiro, Toronto's associate medical officer of health, said in a statement that Toronto Public Health is actively reviewing the latest evidence and best practices for air-quality issues as the city prepares to host the World Cup.

“TPH may provide guidance and recommendations on public health risks, including environmental health concerns such as extreme weather and wildfire smoke,” the statement read. “This includes contingency planning to support the health and safety of residents, visitors, and participants during the tournament.”

Canada recorded its most destructive wildfire season in 2023, with more than 6,000 fires burning 15 million hectares of land, according to Natural Resources Canada. This year’s fire season, according to government data, is the second-largest on record.

Dr. Andrew Halayko, a professor of physiology and pathophysiology at the University of Manitoba, calls an AQHI above 10 a “no-brainer” for postponing sporting events.

Halayko also believes outdoor activities on days when the AQHI rises higher than 7 should be rescheduled due to health concerns, even if it’s just cheering on your favourite team from the stands.

Environment Canada says that wildfire smoke is more likely to affect individuals who are 65 or older, pregnant, young children, and those with existing health conditions or work outdoors.

"In the interest of general safety, you defer to the most vulnerable," Halayko said. “And in that case, anything above 7 or higher should be rescheduled because, I know people are autonomous and should be able to make their own health choices, but sometimes you have to help and provide guidance."

Other experts say it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly when the air quality reaches a threshold where sporting events should be cancelled.

"I personally think that we can't, based on good evidence, have general statements about what AQHI is unacceptable for a given event. Everything is contextual,” said Dr. Christopher Carlsten, the head of the respiratory medicine division at the University of British Columbia.

Carlsten explained that context includes the age of the general audience and the forecast of the air quality, and said that events should be judged on a case-by-case basis.

Greg J. Evans, a chemical engineering professor at the University of Toronto, said people need to make their own decisions based on whether they’re at risk.

"If I had tickets to the World Cup match and it was yesterday, I would have gone,” said Evans, whose research specializes in air pollution. "However, if I were a more vulnerable individual, I might decide not to go.

"To cancel the game for everybody, I think that's a very difficult decision to make."

Evans added that not enough is known about the health impacts of single exposures, such as a few hours at a sporting event, and that more concern is warranted for repetitive and long-term exposures.

Halayko argued that wildfire smoke disrupting sporting events will only increase in the future due to climate change.

"The effects on our environment that we are experiencing today that are worse than they were 10 years ago and will probably be worse in 10 years from now, we're not talking about one-off events," he said. "It's a cumulative thing."

The impact of poor air quality on athletes is also a subject of debate.

Some schools of thought believe athletes can better handle poor air conditions because they are generally young and healthy, making them less likely to sustain long-term health impacts.

However, Michael Brauer, a professor at the University of British Columbia's Faculty of Medicine, said that studies show that even low levels of pollution impact cognitive ability — which not only affects performance but also increases the risk of injuries.

“Imagine two players going up for a pass at really high speeds, and if you make one tiny error, that could be a career-threatening injury,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 15, 2025.