Bellus' Betting Breakdown: The two LIV Players I like this week
Published
Fifteen LIV Golf players will tee it up this week at Los Angeles Country Club in the 123rd U.S. Open.
And if the final results of the first two majors of the year is any indication of what’s to come, surely a few of them will be in the mix on Sunday.
While Brooks Koepka has received all of the attention (as he should, with a tie for second at the Masters and winning the PGA Championship last month in Rochester, N.Y.), at least two other LIV golfers – Patrick Reed and Cameron Smith – have joined him inside the top 10 in both tournaments.
This week, I like those two guys to be right back in that spot.
When it comes to U.S. Open venues, I think Los Angeles Country Club sets up very well for their skill sets.
And both of them already have one major championship under their belt.
Let’s get into why I like both Reed and Smith this week.
Cameron Smith +3000, Top 10 +240
When Cameron Smith showed up at the Masters in early April, he was very honest about the state of his game.
Smith had one top 20 in the first three LIV events of the season and was vocal about how he wished his swing was in a better place.
During his time with the media, the Australian mentioned that sometimes guys show up at Augusta and find their game.
Smith was hoping it was some sort of springboard for his year.
And while the 29-year-old didn’t exactly find his game that week, he hit it poorly off the tee and wasn’t the best on approach.
He still managed to tie for 34th and hasn’t finished outside of a top 10 since that week at Augusta National: Four straight LIV events and a tie for ninth at the PGA Championship.
Not too bad for a guy who seemed lost in March and April.
I believe LACC fits into Smith’s strengths while the wider and firmer fairways will also allow shorter hitters to keep up with the longer hitters in the field.
This place will force players to be creative, something Smith is very happy to do and there’s not many people on earth that want to compete against his short game.
His record in prior U.S. Open tournaments isn’t great. But his best showing at this event came in 2015 when he tied for fourth at Chambers Bay in Washington state, a place LACC has drawn some comparisons to.
Patrick Reed +7500 Outright, +240 Top 20
If you weren’t paying attention, you might have missed Patrick Reed tying for fourth at the Masters this year.
Since then, Reed’s results have looked solid.
I have no idea how to put gaining at least 2.4 strokes in three of his last four LIV events into context, but I know the T18 at the PGA Championship was very surprising, given how important driving distance was at Oak Hill Country Club.
Thirty-two players averaged less than 300 yards per drive that week. And the 32-year-old Reed was one of only five players (Smith, Justin Rose, Victor Perez and Micheal Block) to finish inside the top 20.
Similar to Smith, I think LACC is a much better fit for Reed than Oak Hill, and the American has had his fair share of success in this event.
Since 2017, he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Total in U.S. Opens, has four top 20’s and hasn’t missed a cut.
With the massive merger news dominating the golf world last week, all eyes will be on LACC this week.
And we all know how much Patrick Reed loves the spotlight.
It wouldn’t shock me to see his name inside the top 10 when this is all said and done.