Morning Coffee: What are the odds the Maple Leafs force a Game 7?

The Edmonton Oilers are eight wins away from the Stanley Cup Final.

Not bad for a team that started the season 2-9-1.

It’s easy to forget now, but the Oilers’ outlook has changed dramatically since they made a coaching change back in mid-November following an awful start.

Stuart Skinner was 1-6-1 and had allowed three or more goals in all but one of his first eight starts.

Meanwhile, the Edmonton offence had stumbled out of the gates with two or fewer goals in seven of 12 games.

Despite the terrible start, the Oilers’ odds to win the Western Conference barely moved from +500 to +600 at FanDuel.

Edmonton’s odds to win the Stanley Cup ticked up from +1100 to +1300 at FanDuel, but the team remained a popular pick to win it all.

Fast-forward nearly six months later, the Oilers are headed to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs following a 4-3 win over the Los Angeles Kings in Game 5 last night to clinch the series 4-1 on home ice.

Edmonton awaits the winner of the series between the Vancouver Canucks and the Nashville Predators.

The Canucks will get another opportunity to punch their ticket to the second round with a win over the Nashville Predators in Game 6 on Friday.

If Vancouver advances, it will guarantee that a Canadian team reaches the Western Conference Final.

Meanwhile, Canada’s third and final remaining hope to win the Stanley Cup will face elimination for the second game in a row when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Boston Bruins in Game 6 tonight.

The Maple Leafs answered the bell with their best performance of the series in a 2-1 overtime win in Boston in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

Now they can double down on home ice and force a Game 7 with a win as a small favourite in Toronto tonight.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, May 2, 2024.

What are the odds the Maple Leafs force a Game 7?

The Maple Leafs are -115 to win Game 6 at FanDuel.

An upset win as a +142 underdog in Game 5 in Boston was enough for Leafs Nation to shift its focus from the future to the present.

It also forced a significant shift in the series winner odds.

Toronto went from +740 to +290 to advance at FanDuel. In terms of implied win probability, that’s a shift from an 11.9 per cent chance to a 25.6 per cent chance to advance.

We’ll see an even bigger move if the Maple Leafs can find a way to win tonight and force a Game 7.

Toronto will turn back to 25-year-old netminder Joseph Woll after he stopped 32 of the 33 shots that he’s faced so far in two appearances in the series.

Considering their recent playoff history, the Maple Leafs will need Woll to be brilliant once again tonight.

Toronto has been held to two goals or fewer in four of five games in this series and 11 of their previous 12 playoff games dating back to last season.

The Maple Leafs have averaged 2.25 goals per game in their previous four playoff wins.

Their team total is set at over/under 2.5 goals tonight. The under is 4-1 so far in the series.

It will be interesting to see how the Bruins respond after many analysts made the point that they looked nervous in their Game 5 loss.

Boston has lost five straight potential series-clinching games dating back to last season.

If Toronto pushes that streak to six in a row tonight, all bets are off for Game 7 in Boston on Saturday night.

A FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday night

After a 12-2 run to close out the month of April, we started May with a pair of FanDuel Best Bet winners.

The Same Game Parlay for last night’s late game cashed at -109 odds.

Meanwhile, my two-team parlay with the Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes to both advance at +100 also cashed.

Turning the page this morning, I’m locking in another Same Game Parlay with a pair of shots on goal props at slightly longer odds than Wednesday’s best bet.

Tyler Bertuzzi’s shots on goal prop has been absolutely money so far in the series. He’s gone over 2.5 shots on goal in four straight games and has at least two in every game of the series so far.

Bertuzzi has averaged 3.4 shots on goal per game in the series.

I’ll take Bertuzzi 2+ shots on goal as the first leg of this parlay.

Meanwhile, Matthew Knies was the overtime hero in Game 5 with the game-winning goal on the last of his four shots on goal.

Knies has registered at least two shots on goal in four of the first five games in the series.

I can parlay Bertuzzi 2 or more shots on goal, William Nylander 2 or more shots on goal and Knies 1 or more shots on goal at -123 odds on FanDuel this morning.

I’m tempted to take Knies 2 or more shots on goal at -120, or even a parlay with Bertuzzi 2 or more and Knies 2 or more at +139.

There’s a good chance I have both of those wagers on my bet card for tonight’s game.

As for my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll stick with Bertuzzi 2 or more shots on goal, Nylander 2 or more shots on goal and Knies 1 or more shot on goal at -123 odds.

Hopefully, we can stay hot with another winner.

Enjoy the game tonight, everyone. It doesn’t get much better than this.