Apr 13, 2016
Hodge's rules of thumb in the NHL playoffs
As TSN's Dave Hodge points out in Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down, you can pick the Washington Capitals to win the Stanley Cup but you shouldn’t do it simply because they were 11 points better than the next-best Dallas Stars.
By Dave Hodge
Thumbs? There are rules of thumb in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
First rule of thumb?
Forget everything you’ve watched since the NHL season began on October 6. That’s hard to do because you’ve seen it with your eyes and it all made sense as the season progressed. Ignoring the evidence would be horribly wrong for jurors, but it’s essential for hockey fans who like to call themselves experts.
This doesn’t mean you can’t pick the Washington Capitals to win the Stanley Cup, but it does mean you shouldn’t do it simply because they were 11 points better than the next-best Dallas Stars.
The Capitals are unproven in the playoffs. They have been highly-regarded Stanley Cup contenders before, but not like this, and this brings its own form of playoff pressure. They are expected to breeze past the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round, but there have been bigger playoff shockers than a Philly upset of Washington. If the Capitals advance and happen to meet the New York Rangers in Round 2, they will be reminded of playoff losses to the Rangers in 2012, 2013 and again last season. If they should face Pittsburgh in the second round, their 1-7 playoff mark, all time, versus the Penguins will be mentioned prominently.
The Capitals have home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. One home-ice loss at the start of a series removes that edge. And two home-ice wins to start a series do not represent an advantage if they are followed by two road losses.
Another rule of thumb? Do not conclude anything about a best-of-seven series until you’ve seen games played in two arenas. The real home-ice advantage is supposed to come if there’s a seventh game. But that only means home ice hasn’t helped the favoured team win in less than seven games.
The best power play is mighty important in the playoffs. Rule of thumb? The team with the best power play could be any of 16 teams. There is nothing to say that the Anaheim Ducks’ power play, best in the NHL over 82 games, will be productive in the playoffs.
It seems unfair when a great regular season team folds in the playoffs, but it’s dull if it never happens. Is there a prime candidate to fall flat because of a bad finish to the regular season?
Rule of thumb? Pay no attention to teams hot or cold down the stretch. Hottest were Dallas, St. Louis and Pittsburgh, with eight wins in their last 10 games. Stone cold and stumbling into the playoffs with five straight losses were the Minnesota Wild, and they’re playing Dallas. Pick the Stars to win, as you should, but not because of those season-ending streaks.
It’s all different in the playoffs. The hockey is different; more intense, more physical. It almost looks like a different sport. Oh, and points for 3-on-3 overtime and shootouts don’t show up in standings. Slumps that end during the season don’t necessarily have time to end before the playoffs end.
The most important rule of thumb? A good, and perhaps great team, almost always wins the Stanley Cup. Some of the 16 playoff qualifiers do not fit that description. Good luck picking the one that fits it best. You will need it, because as much as you think you know, you’ll be guessing.