McDavid might be even better than we thought

Travis Yost

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Writing about Connor McDavid is going to be one of those subjects that never gets old. His long-term outlook as a professional hockey player compares to the likes of a Crosby, a Toews, an Ovechkin – a guy you know is just going to dominate this sport until he hangs up his skates.

If there was any concern to be had about McDavid’s game, it only concerned the short-term. How quickly would he adjust to the speed and tenacity of the NHL? How would he adapt to facing the highest cut of competition on a nightly basis, and in what zone could it become a problem area? Would his off-the-puck play in the defensive zone be a point of concern?

I think it’s fair to hold these reservations about rookies – even those coming into the league with the “can’t miss” label. We routinely see young players struggle to acclimate themselves to the pace of the NHL, only to flourish with 100 or so games.

McDavid is quickly becoming an exception to the rule. He’s comfortable in all three zones. He’s routinely turning opposing defenders with an impressive combination of strength and agility. Todd McLellan doesn’t seem particularly phased by his rookie status, either. He’s played the third-most minutes of any forward at even strength to start the year, he’s carved out a major role on the team’s power play, and he’s already been sprinkled some shorthanded minutes.  

What’s particularly interesting is how reliant Edmonton has already become on this 18-year-old. McDavid’s really not sheltered in any capacity, and you could make the argument that he’s already one of the best players on the entire roster.

At 5-on-5 is where McDavid is having the biggest positive impact. To illustrate this, I’ve scraped out each Edmonton skater’s scoring rate per-60 (horizontal axis), his impact on possession (vertical axis), and the amount of ice time he’s been given under the team’s new bench boss (size of the bubble).

Where does Connor McDavid sit in comparison to the rest of his teammates?

The ideal forward sits on the top right of this graph – a big-time scorer, a big-time positive impact on his team’s shot differentials through skill in all three zones, and a player trusted enough by his coach to play big minutes in games.

McDavid, as a rookie, checks all the boxes. Probably most impressive of those boxes is the fact that Edmonton’s seeing an eight-point boost in possession every time he takes the ice.

Also, note where McDavid’s linemates – Nail Yakupov and Benoit Pouliot – sit. They are right next to him. Hard to argue that they aren’t benefiting from him centering that line, which is as big of a compliment as you can give a teenage hockey player.

At the team level, we can feel reasonably confident that McDavid’s having a pretty big impact. But maybe we need to draw some comparisons to other rookie forwards around the league to spell out just how impactful McDavid has been in the early parts of the season.

The same numbers (points per-60, RelativeCorsi%, and ice time indicated by bubble size) for some of the notable rookie forwards outlined below:

This confirms a few thoughts of mine. For starters, not every rookie skater (in this case rookie forwards) is having a great time to start the year. And a lot of these guys carry a pretty big reputation as being impact players at prior levels of competition. I think it speaks volumes about the learning and development curve that goes on at the NHL level. It’s not an overnight, flip-the-switch change.

It also adds confidence to our qualitative analysis (he looks damn good) and our first quantitative analysis (he compares well to other Edmonton forwards).  Even through an external analysis to other rookies in varying situations across the league, McDavid is mint. His scoring rates are relatively high, his impact on possession is a fantastic positive, and he’s getting a lot of opportunity to succeed under McLellan.

The Takeaway

Everyone knew Connor McDavid would be good. Great, even. But perhaps we need to calibrate even our short-term expectations for him in Edmonton. If McDavid’s this comfortable after just 10 games at the NHL-level, where is he going to be by year two? Scary thought, that.