To rotate or not: Why Leicester are still in the title race

Kristian Jack

TSN Soccer Analyst

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Introduction

During one of our Premier League shows in December myself and fellow TSN analyst Jason DeVos disagreed on air about the element of squad rotation. Regular viewers will be aware how often Jason and I do agree so a rare subject of contention has since become something many people want to approach me about. I still get questions wondering if Jason and I ‘still get along’. One actually asked me this week if it was the reason why I am not looking at him as much on camera. Don’t worry, folks, we do get along just fine, live in the same city and occasionally car-pool to work!

Anyway back to the point. The debate started when looking at how hard Jose Mourinho rode his regular starters last season. I showed numbers that explained that Chelsea’s 2014/15 league season was a statistical outlier compared to other past title winners when it comes to the amount of games played by regular starters and I also believed this has contributed to Chelsea’s decline this season. Jason said the more you can start the players you rely on the most the better. Whoever is right – and it is entirely possible we both are – it is a topic that I felt needed more research.

Background

During a full season a Premier League manager has 380 outfield spots to fill when selecting starting XI’s for 38 league matches. For the purpose of this study goalkeepers – who are rarely rotated and are much more likely to start all games than outfield players – were omitted. The following is the combined number of starts in the last 10 seasons used by the 10 most common starters during a title-winning campaign.

For such a large sample size the numbers are quite similar prior to last season. Jason, quite rightly, pointed out on the show that more research is needed in terms of why these games were missed, as they don’t explain if they were down to a manager’s decision or injuries, for example. However, what we do know is that over a large amount of time a Premier League winner looks very similar when it comes to how deep their squads need to be.

Here is a look at how many outfield players started 10 league games or more for the champions in the last 10 years.

Chelsea 14/15 - 11
Man City 13/14 – 16
Man Utd 12/13 -  16
Man City 11/12 – 15
Man Utd 10/11 – 17
Chelsea 09/10 – 16
Man Utd 08/09 – 17
Man Utd 07/08 – 14
Man Utd 06/07 – 14
Chelsea 05/06 – 15

To rotate or not rotate; what is the best way for success?

Last season Chelsea looked like champions from the start of the season. They led the Premier League for a record 274 days. They were dominant, however, down the stretch they weren’t the same team as earlier in the season.  In the first 19 games they averaged 2.16 points per game and won 11 matches by two goals or more. In the last 19 games the averaged 1.68 points per game and won just five by two goals or more.

“They crawled over the line for that title and they were hanging on at the end,” Crystal Palace boss Alan Pardew said recently when the topic came up about the last truly great Premier League side.

Chelsea were very good for most of last season. Their drop of form may or may not be related to fatigue and the amount of games played by their key players but we do know that Mourinho rarely changed his lineup despite a drop off in results. Three players started all 38 games and eight started at least 28. Currently the 84.7 per cent starting rate and the 11 outfield players to reach 10 or more starts look like statistical outliers for champions not just throughout Premier League history but also across Europe’s top leagues.

• - The Bundesliga is contested over 34 games.

All of the non-Premier League winning numbers are in line with what the Premier League saw prior to last season with the games played by the most frequent 10 outfield players coming in at 68-72 per cent.

Looking at this season’s contenders

In the Premier League it is clear two teams are on a similar path to last season’s Chelsea and two others look much like the champions prior to 2014/15.

Through 24 matches leaders Leicester City are currently at a higher point than Chelsea with 10 of their most regular starters combining for 206 spots of the 240 used so far (85.5 per cent). These 10 players are on pace to reach 326 combined starts.

Tottenham Hotspur are in a similar situation. Their 10 most frequent starters have combined for 199 spots (82.9 per cent) and statistically they are on pace for 315 combined starts although Jan Vertonghen’s recent knee injury will bring that number down by season’s end.

To validate Jason’s point the performances of both these teams have exceeded all expectations so far. There is little doubt that these two teams have performed better because they have found more consistency within their starting XI’s. Both Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy, for example, have started every match. At the back, prior to Vertonghen’s injury, no teams have come close to the combined minutes played by centre-back partnerships than these two. Leicester boss Claudio Ranieri, the artist formerly known as ‘the Tinkerman’, has called their campaign ‘a fairytale’ and it is quite remarkable that their 10 most frequent players are at a combined starting rate over 85 per cent seeing that they have come through the most gruelling part of the calendar. They have certainly been boosted by their core ten’s availability for most of the season and if they are going to win the Premier League they will need that to continue. Ranieri’s men have just 14 games left in the next three and a half months while Arsenal and Man City have the possibility of playing double that amount.

Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini has many options within his squad to rotate and it is debatable whether he really knows his best XI even if everyone is available. That hasn’t happened this season because City have had a number of injuries to deal with and currently their 10 most frequent starters have combined to start 177 of 240 matches (73.75 per cent). They are on pace for 280 starts. Arsenal have had much more consistency within their back four during this campaign but have had injuries elsewhere and their 10 most frequent starters have combined for 186 starts (77.5 per cent). They are on pace for 295.

Like Chelsea last season Leicester and Tottenham are the outliers not just compared to their own league but also across Europe. It should come as no surprise that the only other contender amongst Europe’s biggest leagues that is also an outlier is Napoli, another team who are currently exceeding expectations and are in a position they haven’t been in for some time. The other regular league contenders have similar numbers in line of what history shows title winners need. Expect Barcelona’s number to drop down now Aleix Vidal and Arda Turan are eligible.

Conclusion

Earlier this season Bayern boss Pep Guardiola addressed the issue of player rotation saying: “For the harmony, for their legs, for their bodies, it’s good when we rotate things.” In 137 competitive matches at Bayern Pep has named the same starting XI twice in back-to-back matches and at one point changed the starting XI 99 games in a row.

When Rafael Benitez took over from Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid many of the press demanded he rotated the squad more than the Italian did. Benitez addressed the topic on his website back in 2013 writing three reasons for the need to rotate:

•    ‘The first reason is to prevent overload in the number of minutes played. It is commonly agreed that the players who play the most minutes are at a bigger risk of injury, especially injuries which occur due to fatigue.’
•    ‘The second reason is the decrease in physical performance, especially in high intensity, which comes from playing 2 or 3 matches in one week.’
•    ‘The third reason is to create competition within the squad. It’s obvious that players want to play every game and although at first they have difficulty coming to terms with having to rest, they end up understanding it and even asking to rest, once they realise the importance of the rotation system in winning trophies’.

The performances of Leicester, Tottenham and Napoli show that teams can improve significantly with consistent team selection but it will be fascinating to track the success and starting XI’s of these three teams in the final third of this season. All three do not have the squad depth and resources of some of the other big super clubs listed here but it is clear that by trusting a smaller squad they can be successful in the short-term as Jason suggested. History and traditional league winners show us a very different formula, leaning more on rotation, to consistently challenge every year.

You can watch Manchester City v Leicester City this Saturday on the TSN Network at 7:45am et/4:45am pt.