FanDuel NFL Best Bets: TSN staff picks for Championship Sunday

Each week, members from our betting team will share their best bets from the slate of NFL games in hopes of building the ultimate 8-leg parlay on FanDuel.

You can ride the parlay or play the picks on their own, but we made sure to leave an empty space in the box for you to join in and add your biggest lock for the week! Just save the image below and add your own pick to the middle square if you want in on the parlay.

Here’s what we’re rolling with for the  Championship Sunday. 

Domenic Padula: Lamar Jackson 60+ rushing yards

I played this prop last week and Lamar Jackson didn't disappoint with 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores.

Against a tougher opponent, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Jackson will revert to his greatest weapon, which is his ability to make plays with his legs.

In the Divisional Round, the Chiefs did everything they could to stop Josh Allen from beating them deep, and that left a lot of room over the middle.

Allen rushed for 72 yards and two scores.

I could see Jackson posting even better numbers this week, but 60+ rushing yards seems like a good floor for my FanDuel Best Bet.

Eric Cohen: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 Receiving Yards 

This will be by far the toughest test for the Detroit Lions who defeated Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at home to advance to the NFC Championship in San Francisco. Expect Detroit to use everything in their offensive playbook to match up against a 49ers team that will probably score over 27 points against an average Lions secondary.

When the Lions shocked the world drafting Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round they knew how dynamic a player he was. In their previous 2 playoff games Gibbs has caught 4 passes versus both Los Angeles and Tampa Bay for 40 yards and 43 yards. It seems like when the Lions want to pound the ball on the ground David Montgomery is their man, but when they are looking for screens and to get big plays out a running back in the short passing game Gibbs is their guy. The 49ers defence struggled mightily against Aaron Jones last week and I expect Gibbs to once again be a big factor in the passing game. Seeing a number at just 21.5 receiving yards makes it a must play for my best bet of the week.

Evan Render: Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns 

The Lions know the level of aggression they have to get to in order to win this game. There’s a few game state possibilities that we need in order for this play to hit, one of which is the aggressive nature of Dan Campbell either trailing or ahead.

The Lions will go for a ton of fourth downs knowing how potent the 49ers are offensively. They’ll also be throwing the ball down field against San Francisco’s only weak spot, the secondary.

I think asking Jared Goff to throw 2 touchdown passes as a 7 point underdogs at this price is something I can’t pass up. Whether trailing and throwing to catch up, or playing aggressively to pad the lead, the Lions score enough points to have at least 2 touchdown passes.

Let’s go.

Christian Marin: Zay Flowers Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers has been a go-to guy for Lamar Jackson since Week 1 this season and I expect that to be the case this weekend with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Flowers went over this number in 11 of 16 games during the regular season, and he finished just four yards short of this number last week even though the Ravens abandoned the throwing game because of their massive lead.

Mark Andrews returns to the Baltimore Ravens’ lineup this week, which makes me like this play even more because Andrews should help open up the field for the rookie receiver. 

Flowers hauled in a catch for 25 yards or more in six games during the season, so he could go over this number with a few catches. 

I like Flowers to go over 44.5 receiving yards this weekend. 

Connor Ford: Justice Hill Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 

Most people view Gus Edwards as the lead running back for the Ravens, myself included. However, Justice Hill has carved out a significant role since standout rookie Keaton Mitchell went down with an ACL injury in Week 15. 

Over the last five weeks, Hill has played 52 percent of the Ravens offensive snaps to just 41 percent for Edwards. During that span, Hill ranks third on the team with 132 receiving yards and a 2.20 yards per route run. He’s also commanded the second-highest target share (22%) since Week 16, just behind Zay Flowers (28.6%). 

While the Chiefs defence has been impressive, they are susceptible to running backs in the passing game. They’ve allowed the second-most receiving yards to the running back position over the last eight weeks. I expect Hill to handle the bulk of the receiving duties in the Ravens backfield on Sunday. 

I’ll take Hill over 12.5 receiving yards as my best bet for the Conference Championships.

Chris Brieda: Patrick Mahomes Over 243.5 Passing Yards

Taking Patrick Mahomes’ over on yards is partially a legacy decision, and it’s also fading the Ravens’ No.5 ranked pass defence in the NFL, so I can understand why someone might not love this pick on paper.
However, I have something you might want to see.
Patrick Mahomes in four career games against the Ravens:
2018: 377 yards
2019: 374 yards
2020: 385 yards
2021: 343 yards
Folks, his line is only 243.5. He’s SMASHED it by near 100+ yards every time.
That’s it. That’s really what sold me on this pick. It’s not a sketchy 4-0 to the over, it’s a convincing obliteration of what his line is on Sunday.
I don’t know who will win, but I know the Chiefs arent blowing out the Ravens.
With that, I’m confident the best player in the league will need to be throwing the ball all afternoon in the AFC Championship.

Drew Morrison: David Montgomery Over 5.5 receiving yards

Still lamenting last week’s play…  Deebo Samuel’s exit spoiled a slam dunk staff pick.  George Kittle revealed on the Pat McAfee show this week that he thought Deebo was going to have a 300 yard 3 touchdown game against the Packers in the Divisional Round.

Here’s hoping Deebo is still too banged up to bully the Lions on Sunday.  With his health being the biggest question mark ahead of the NFC championship game, my pick is Deebo proof.

David Montgomery is the power half of the two headed monster that is the Lions ground game.  He’s the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs’ lightning.  But the backfield they share doesn’t rotate on down, it rotates on drive usually.  As a result, Monty is often available as a check down option.  He was on the first two plays of last week’s game against the Bucs when Jared Goff threw to him twice in a row.  The first one was incomplete, the second was caught for 7 yards.  With 11 and 14 receiving yards respectively, he’s at least doubled this total in each of Detroit’s first two playoff games. 

Against a 49ers defence that allowed the seventh most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, and likes to play zone defence?  Monty should be available underneath – at least enough to get six yards.  And if you’re not interested in a sweat?  It’s very possible this pick hits on the Lions first drive, if not their first offensive play.  Roar. 

Luke Bellus: Josh Reynolds Over 2.5 Receptions 

Josh Reynolds and Jared Goff have played eight playoff games together. 

Reynolds has played 75 per cent or more of the offensive snaps in six of those. 

He has at least three targets in all six of those games, and four or more targets in five of them. 

Reynolds has been on the field for 75 per cent or more of the snaps in both of Detroit's playoff games, he has 10 targets and seven catches. 

Last week the Packers had five players catch three or more passes against the 49ers, something that has been a common theme in recent weeks. 

Week 17 three players on Washington caught three or more passes. 

Week 16 three players on Baltimore caught three or more passes. 

Week 15 three players on Arizona caught three or more passes. 

Week 14 three players on Seattle caught three or more passes. 

Week 13 three players on Philadelphia caught three or more passes. 

Week 12 three players on Seattle caught three or more passes. 

Week 11 five players on Tampa Bay caught three or more passes. 

You have to go all the way back to Week 10 to find a team that didn't have three or more guys go over this number against San Francisco. 

So while I expect Detroit's big boys to show up on Sunday, they'll also need production from a guy like Reynolds if they want to keep up. 

The odds on this 8-leg parlay are +9328* and $10 would pay $932.84 on FanDuel Canada.

*Odds subject to change.