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FanDuel NFL Best Bets: TSN staff picks for the Divisional Round
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Each week, members from our betting team will share their best bets from the slate of NFL games in hopes of building the ultimate 8-leg parlay on FanDuel.
You can ride the parlay or play the picks on their own, but we made sure to leave an empty space in the box for you to join in and add your biggest lock for the week! Just save the image below and add your own pick to the middle square if you want in on the parlay.
Here’s what we’re rolling with for the Divisional Round.
Domenic Padula: Josh Allen 40+ Rushing Yards
Josh Allen went over this number with a 52-yard TD run against the Steelers last week.
He finished with 74 rushing yards, marking the third straight week he's rushed for 40+.
When these teams met back in December, Allen ran the ball 10 times for 32 yards and a score.
If he runs the ball at least 10 times again in this contest, he should get the 40 yards I need to cash this FanDuel Best Bet.
In a winner-take-all versus Patrick Mahomes and an AFC Championship Game appearance on the line, I think Allen uses his legs early and often in this one.
Eric Cohen: Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 7.5 rushing yards
We know Isiah Pacheco is the bell cow in the Chiefs backfield. He ran the ball 24 times versus the Dolphins last week. Despite all those carries, the Chiefs still gave Edwards-Helaire 7 carries of his own which he turned into 21 yards. The weather in Buffalo will obviously be cold and both teams should be very active on the ground.
The Bills defence has been decimated with injuries. Last week they really struggled once they built a 21-0 lead and the defensive players started going down. Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris and Mason Rudolph all had runs against the Bills of at least 10 yards!! All Edwards-Helaire is going to need is probably 2 carries to go over this number and the way he ran when Pacheco was out late in the season and last week versus Miami tells me he should get those carries no problem. Can't wait for all of the Divisional Playoff Matchups!!!
Evan Render: Detroit Lions Over 27.5 points
To me, this is probably the toughest week to handicap to-date in the NFL. Lines are super sharp at this time of year, with not much of an edge to be had either way.
There’s one thing I’m fairly confident in, however, and that’s the Detroit Lions scoring points at home against Tampa Bay. This is the second highest total of the week at 48.5 so typically the team favoured by a touchdown should have no trouble doing their part. Tampa’s defence is as blitz heavy as it gets in the NFL, just like Minnesota’s under Brian Flores. Jared Goff has absolutely torched the blitz this season to no surprise if you consider his personnel.
With Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St Brown in the slot and underneath for dump-offs, Goff will have perfect outlets to check down to while under pressure from this Bucs front. Detroit has shown no signs on slowing down offensively at Ford Field, and I don’t see Tampa holding them below 28 points.
Give me the Lions TT over 27.5 points as my best bet.
Christian Marin: Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions (-148)
Last week I rolled with the over on Rashee Rice’s receptions total because of the amount of trust Patrick Mahomes clearly has in him, and this week I’m going with the over on Travis Kelce’s receptions total because of the same reason - I would have rolled with Rice again, but his total was bumped up to 6.5 so I’m switching it up and going with Kelce.
Mahomes showed us all once again last week that he seems to only trust Kelce, Rice and Isiah Pacheco - and rightfully so - as Rice (12) and Kelce (10) combined for 22 of the 34 targets, and that number goes up to 23 if you add Pacheco’s lone target. Kelce went over this number last week, catching seven of his 10 targets, and he has gone over this number in five consecutive games (including playoffs) against the Buffalo Bills.
On top of that, the Chiefs tight end has gone over this number in six consecutive playoff games - dating back to the 2022 season and has made six or more catches in 14 of his 19 career playoff games.
I’ll take Kelce over 5.5 receptions as my best bet for the week.
Connor Ford: Luke Musgrave Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Green Bay Packers have one of the most exciting young receiving corps in the league. Christian Watson is a standout athlete, Jayden Reed has impressed as a rookie and Romeo Doubs is more than serviceable. But don’t forget about Luke Musgrave.
Musgrave has gone over this number in nine of the 12 games he’s played this season. He went for 52 yards against the Cowboys last week, despite playing just 27 percent of the snaps. His snap count should increase this week as he continues to move past a lacerated kidney that he suffered mid-season.
Additionally, the 49ers have allowed the most receiving yards to the tight end position since Week 15. Seven different tight ends have recorded at least 20 receiving yards against this defence during that span. The 49ers don’t have many weaknesses, but their secondary is certainly not a strength.
The Packers are also 9.5-point underdogs and could be forced into a pass-heavy game script if they find themselves down early. I’ll take Musgrave over 17.5 receiving yards as my FanDuel best bet.
Drew Morrison: Deebo Samuel: Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
Here Comes Deebo.
Deebo Samuel was nicknamed after the late Tiny Lister’s character in the movie Friday, and according to Ice Cube who wrote and directed the movie, it works. ‘He’s a bully. I’m pretty sure he could take a bike or two.’
It’s a big number considering Samuel has only gone over it six times this season and not since week 13 when he had 149 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks. The bully is biding his time.
There are plenty of mouths to feed on the 49ers offence. Opportunities could be limited, but I expect Deebo to make the most of his. San Fran should look to get physical with the Packers. Who better to be the focus than a guy named after one of most feared physical specimens of all time? Deebo will be front and centre.
Chris Brieda: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 91.5 Rec Yards
When Detroit faced Tampa Bay earlier this season down at Raymond James Stadium (AKA Ford Field South), Amon-Ra St. Brown carved the Bucs defence for 12 catches, 124 yards and a touchdown on 15 total targets.
This time the game is back at home, and St. Brown has gone over 91.5 in four straight home games and seven of eight at Ford Field this season:
— vs LAR: 110 yards
— vs MIN: 144 yards
— vs DEN: 112 yards
— vs GB: 95 yards
— vs CHI: 77 yards
— vs LV: 108 yards
— vs ATL: 102 yards
— vs SEA: 102 yards
Tack on that the Buccaneers defence ranked 29th in yards allowed through the air this season, and this all lines up to be great matchup for Amon-Ra if the Lions offence operates how we’re used to seeing.
Detroit’s All-Pro receiver also led the NFL in 100+ yard games this year, and I may dabble with St. Brown to lead the week in receiving yards at +350 on FanDuel.
The Sun God will shine again in the Divisional Round.
Luke Bellus: Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 Rushing Yards
Bookending this column with both quarterback's rushing props for Sunday Night Football feels appropriate.
The biggest stage of the season calls for the best players to make big plays.
Patrick Mahomes has played in the Divisional Round five times. He has 23 rushing attempts for 152 rushing yards.
Slightly over nine attempts per game, and in the playoffs he averages just over eight attempts per game.
Compare that to his regular season numbers where he averages just over five attempts per game.
So we know he's going to run, and we also know we can pop big runs, last week he ran just twice for 41 yards.
This game is going to be tight, and when big plays have to be made Mahomes' leg provide a weapon that is a difference maker.
With this Chiefs' team lacking depth in the passing game, I could see Mahomes leaning on his legs more and more as the game progresses if his first read isn't iimmediately available.
The odds on this 8-leg parlay are +10163* and $10 would pay $1016.25 on FanDuel Canada.
*Odds subject to change.