Morning Coffee: Broncos The Favourites To Draft Nix, McCarthy At FanDuel

Winning the Super Bowl without an elite quarterback isn’t impossible.

It’s more like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube blindfolded while riding a unicycle.

A simple task for me.

Apparently, a not-so-simple task for the long list of NFL general managers attempting to build a team capable of challenging the Kansas City Chiefs for league supremacy.

Understanding what it takes to win is the easy part.

Finding the right pieces to execute is another story.

You want to win a Super Bowl ring in the modern NFL?

You better find a quarterback that can deliver on the biggest stage.

That’s the problem for the majority of NFL organizations.

Teams can throw all their money and their resources at the problem and end up in a worse position than they were when they started their pursuit of a quarterback.

What is the appropriate response in that situation?

Hit the reset button and begin the process again.

The Denver Broncos hit that reset button when they revealed on Monday that they will release Russell Wilson after the league year begins on March 13th.

Once again, there will be a ton of pressure on the organization to get their next move right.

Considering the stakes, there’s a very good chance that the Broncos already have a Plan A, Plan B and Plan C in place for how they will address their current predicament in free agency and the NFL Draft. 

Building a Super Bowl contender without an elite quarterback is a difficult task.

Building a Super Bowl contender without an elite QB in the same division as the team with one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history might actually – in fact - be impossible. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday March 5th, 2024.

Broncos The Favourites To Draft Nix, McCarthy At FanDuel

The Broncos went all-in when they acquired Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks in March of 2020.

Two years later, it’s widely regarded as one of the worst trades in NFL history.

In two seasons, Denver went 11-19 outright with Wilson as its starting quarterback.

Wilson’s 44 QBR ranked 25th in the NFL over that span.

He was also sacked 100 times – the highest mark in the NFL over that span.

In addition to the players and picks they lost; the Broncos still have to deal with the dead money that will come with cutting Wilson now.

According to Roster Management System, Wilson’s dead money hit is larger than the second and third-largest dead money hits in NFL history combined.

The fact that the organization decided to make this move is a testament to the urgency they felt to hit the reset button sooner rather than later.

Denver is one of six NFL teams that currently has negative cap space.

After missing the playoffs in eight straight seasons, the expectation is that the postseason drought will continue in Sean Payton’s second season as head coach.

Only five teams have longer odds to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel than Denver at 150-to-1.

What happens beyond this season is anyone’s guess.

The Chiefs aren’t going anywhere as the perennial Super Bowl favourite with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

The Los Angeles Chargers just hit the reset button with a massive deal for head coach Jim Harbaugh and a completely revamped coaching staff that they believe can turn the franchise’s hopes around.

Even the Las Vegas Raiders have shorter odds to win the AFC West than the Broncos right now.

The first step was for Denver to move on from Wilson.

The next step will be the most important decision that the Broncos will have to make.

Who will replace Wilson as the franchise quarterback?

Denver has cycled through 13 different starting quarterbacks since 2016 – the first season after Peyton Manning retired.

Only the Cleveland Browns (15) and the Washington Commanders (13) have had as many starting QBs or more over that span.

According to FanDuel, the Broncos are expected to select Wilson’s replacement with their top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Denver is the favourite to select Oregon quarterback Bo Nix in the 2024 NFL Draft at +300 odds.

The rival Raiders (+550), the Minnesota Vikings (+650), New England Patriots (+650), and the New Orleans Saints (+750) round out the top five choices to draft Nix at FanDuel.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are also the betting favourite to draft Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at +470.

The New York Giants, which currently hold the sixth pick in the NFL Draft, are the second choice to land McCarthy at +500.

The Vikings are the third choice to draft McCarthy at +550.

Additionally, Denver is the fifth choice to draft Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in April.

While USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are the consensus top three quarterbacks on the board right now, each of those three passers is expected to be a top-five pick.

The Broncos own the 12th pick in the NFL Draft.

Depending on how free agency plays out, the Broncos, Giants, Atlanta Falcons, Vikings, and the Saints could all be in the market for a quarterback.

All five teams currently hold a selection between No. 6 and No. 14, which adds to the intrigue of just how high Nix and McCarthy will be drafted.

With exactly 51 days until the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, the pressure is on all 32 teams to find the missing puzzle pieces that will put them in the picture as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Some are further along in that process than others.

In Denver, the top priority remains finding a franchise quarterback.

As it stands right now, nobody should be surprised that the Broncos are the betting favourite to draft Nix and McCarthy as Wilson’s successor in the 2024 NFL Draft.