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Morning Coffee: Could the Browns surprise in the AFC?
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The Cleveland Browns have an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot with a win in Week 17.
There aren’t many people expecting very much at all from them beyond that.
The Browns are 20-to-1 to win the AFC at FanDuel.
They are 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.
Cleveland isn’t supposed to make a deep postseason run.
Then again, nobody expected the Browns to win three in a row and compete for the most wins in franchise history with their fourth-string quarterback.
This Cleveland team is already doing the unexpected.
Is it completely unfathomable to consider the potential for Joe Flacco and company to shock the football world and make a deep playoff run in the AFC?
Regardless of what happens next, the Browns have a championship calibre-defence, a talented cast of skill-position players on offence, and a veteran quarterback that has a Super Bowl ring.
They also have the current favourite to win AP NFL Coach of the Year at FanDuel in Kevin Stefanski.
I’m not rushing to bet on Cleveland to win the Super Bowl.
However, I’m definitely intrigued by the potential value that could exist with the Browns to win the AFC at such a long price.
This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday December 27th, 2023.
Could The Browns Surprise In The AFC?
The Browns are 20-to-1 to win the AFC at FanDuel.
That number represents a 4.8 per cent implied probability.
I believe Cleveland has a better chance than that.
I’m just not sure that I want to bet on it just yet.
Since making his first start of the season in Week 13, the 38-year-old Flacco has thrown for more yards (1,321) and more touchdowns (10) than any other quarterback in the league.
Flacco is now the second choice to win the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award at +300 at FanDuel, behind only Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin.
In Sunday’s 36-22 win over the Houston Texans, Flacco threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns, with a pair of interceptions.
He connected with Amari Cooper on 11 catches for 265 yards and two touchdowns on 15 targets.
Since Week 10, Cooper leads the NFL with 633 receiving yards.
Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore and Jerome Ford might not be an elite cast of playmakers, but the Browns have averaged 29.0 points per game over their previous three contests with Flacco at quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland defence has the best defensive success rate of any team over the past 23 seasons, according to TruMedia.
Myles Garrett leads the league with 23 QB pressures over the past three weeks alone and is the favourite to win the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year at FanDuel.
The Browns rank first in the NFL in total defence.
Perhaps most important is the potential playoff schedule.
Cleveland is on pace to qualify for the postseason as the No. 5 seed in the AFC.
If the playoffs started today, the Browns would travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round.
Cleveland just beat Jacksonville 31-27 in Week 14.
In fact, the Browns also have wins over the top two choices to win the Super Bowl in the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, just in case you forgot.
The Ravens are the clear favourite to win the AFC.
I’m intrigued by the Buffalo Bills at 5-to-1 to win the AFC.
I’m also not about to completely write off Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at +350 the way that everybody else seems to be doing right now.
Still, I’m fascinated by what’s happening in Cleveland right now.
I would not be surprised if the Browns made a deep playoff run and ended up in the AFC Championship Game.
Stranger things have happened.