Morning Coffee: A Fanduel best bet for Super Bowl 58
Published
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, well, that’s clearly on me.
Especially when it’s a bet against the best quarterback in NFL history in the postseason.
One week after betting on the Buffalo Bills to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, I decided to fade Patrick Mahomes against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
For the second week in a row, Mahomes outplayed his counterpart, Kansas City’s staff outcoached their counterparts, and the Chiefs moved one win closer to establishing a modern-day dynasty.
The Chiefs beat the Ravens 17-10.
Mahomes improved to 9-3 straight up and 10-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career with the win in Baltimore.
He’s now one win away from his third Super Bowl ring.
Meanwhile in the NFC Championship Game, the San Francisco 49ers rallied from down 17 points at the half to beat the Detroit Lions 34-31.
If you’re a Lions fan, there’s plenty of time to discuss what went wrong, but that was a remarkable season.
If you’re a 49ers fan, I’m interested to get your perspective on the Super Bowl match-up.
For the third straight week, Mahomes opened as an underdog at FanDuel with the Chiefs set to face the 49ers in the Super Bowl.
This time around, I won’t consider fading Mahomes.
I’ve learned my lesson.
This time around, I’m betting on Mahomes to win it all.
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday January 29th, 2024.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Super Bowl 58
When I watched the AFC Championship Game back last night, the Ravens mistakes really jumped off the screen.
There are two things that stand out to me.
First, Mahomes is in a class of his own at the quarterback position.
That was apparent watching him over the past two weeks.
Second, the Chiefs are obviously one of the most well-coached teams in the NFL, and coaching was very much a point of difference in Sunday’s win in Baltimore.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are headed back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons.
Kansas City will attempt to become the first repeat champion since the New England Patriots in 2003-04.
Unlike previous years, the path to the Super Bowl looked a lot different for the Chiefs.
Mahomes hadn’t even played a road playoff game prior to this year’s Divisional Round.
All he did was guide Kansas City to back-to-back upset wins over Buffalo and Baltimore to win the AFC, knocking off two of his biggest rivals at the position in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in the process.
He also seemed to have a lot of fun doing it.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Chiefs are the first defending champion to win multiple games as a betting underdog in a single postseason.
Mahomes went 30-of-39 for 241 yards and a touchdown with 15 rushing yards in the win over the Ravens.
Kansas City was shutout in the second half by the No. 1 seed on the road, but still won the game by seven points.
Mahomes was brilliant in the first half.
Ultimately, he avoided the type of destructive mistakes that could cost the Chiefs in a tough environment on the road.
He also looked more comfortable throughout the game, as Kansas City stuck to the game plan that worked for them so well against the Bills on both sides of the ball.
The Ravens abandoned the run game early, made several costly mistakes and took multiple avoidable penalties.
Jackson admitted after the game that the offence struggled to adjust and ultimately made too many errors.
The Chiefs stuck to their game plan, leaning heavily on Kelce, Pacheco and Rice on offence, while daring Jackson to run the ball or throw short while consistently generating pressure up front on defence.
Kansas City is far from a perfect team.
However, they have an elite QB a clear identify on both sides of the football, and experience on the biggest stage.
Don’t underestimate the importance of a team that knows what it is and sticks to its strengths under pressure.
Now comes the toughest test of the year for the Chiefs.
The 49ers were the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Super Bowl favourite entering the Divisional Round.
San Francisco rallied from a 17-point half-time deficit to beat the Lions and advance to their eighth Super Bowl.
Prior to last night’s win, the 49ers were 0-19 all-time under Kyle Shanahan when trailing by 17 points at the half.
It was a tale of two halves for an offence that has been very inconsistent this postseason.
Brock Purdy went 7-of-15 for 93 yards with an interception and another turnover-worthy throw in the first half against the Lions.
In the second half, Purdy went 13-of-16 for 174 yards with 49 rushing yards.
The offensive resurgence was bolstered by some mistakes by the Detroit offence and some questionable decisions by head coach Dan Campbell, which gave San Francisco the opportunities it needed in the second half.
If Purdy struggles in the first half again versus Kansas City, I don’t believe that Mahomes, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo will let him off the hook.
Mahomes has already established himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.
Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco all have two weeks to rest and recover for the Super Bowl.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have been on this stage before.
Purdy was a seventh-round pick in last year’s NFL Draft and he looked very shaky for extended stretches against both the Packers and Lions.
Meanwhile, the Lions just put up 31 points in San Francisco and clearly left some points on the table.
The Niners defence has the potential to look better in the Super Bowl than it did on Sunday, and maybe it will, but it could also be tough to bounce back against Mahomes.
Ultimately, I’m going to take Mahomes and Reid over Purdy and Shanahan at plus-money.
Give me the Chiefs at +118 on the moneyline as my FanDuel Best Bet for Super Bowl 58.