Bills in tough as AFC East stakes claim as NFL’s toughest division
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The AFC East may end up being the most competitive division in the NFL this season.
The New England Patriots captured the divisional crown 17 times over a 19-year stretch during the Tom Brady era before the recent dominance of the Buffalo Bills, who have run away with the division three straight seasons.
Now, after an eventful off-season, the AFC East may have its biggest question marks in decades.
Will the Bills take a step back and lose their divisional crown? Does Aaron Rodgers have enough in the tank to make the New York Jets a contender? Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy for the Miami Dolphins? Can Bill Belichick and Mac Jones keep the Patriots competitive?
Let’s take a closer look at the four teams in the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen Stefon Diggs Buffalo Bills
Win Total Over/Under: 10.5
Win Division: +120
Despite winning their third consecutive divisional title in 2022, there is a slight air of pessimism surrounding the Bills as they enter the 2023 campaign.
For one, last season ended on a sour note thanks to a 27-10 drubbing at home by Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round, followed by a somewhat uninspiring off-season that was void of any major additions to the roster.
They lost two-time Pro Bowl linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency to the Chicago Bears and running back Devin Singletary to the Houston Texans.
But the Bills did retain Pro Bowl safety Jordan Poyer, who has become one of Buffalo’s most important “heart and soul” players over the past six seasons, as well as signing pass rusher Leonard Floyd and defensive tackle Poona Ford to shore up their defensive depth.
They also added running back Damien Harris, who ran for 929 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2021 with the Patriots, and veteran Latavius Murray to work alongside sophomore back James Cook.
The most intriguing addition was tight end Dalton Kincaid, selected in the first round of the draft out of Utah.
It may be unwise to put too high of expectations on a rookie, but Kincaid and fellow tight end Dawson Knox could be the X-factor for a Bills’ offence that struggled with depth to its receiving core in 2022.
However, at the end of the day, the Super Bowl-contending Bills will go as far as star quarterback Josh Allen and No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs can take them.
Despite Allen and Diggs both putting up elite numbers for most of the regular season, the pair struggled down the stretch and only connected four times for 35 yards during their blowout loss to the Bengals in the playoffs.
The rumour mill amped up a notch or two earlier this summer when Diggs was absent for the start of mandatory practices.
Head coach Sean McDermott said he was “very concerned” with Diggs’ absence and even though the three three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver returned to practice the next day, the idea that there could be some level of discontent between the two sides was implanted in the minds of Bills’ fans.
The 29-year-old Diggs is signed through the 2027 season while Allen, 27, is locked up through 2028.
If Allen and Diggs can keep their chemistry intact as one of the best offensive duos in the NFL, the Bills will remain the Super Bowl contenders that they’ve been for the past three seasons.
However, if the opposite happens, Buffalo’s reign as AFC East champions could be in serious jeopardy with the improved Jets and Dolphins nipping at their heels.
Their schedule doesn’t help either as it’s one of the toughest in the NFL, highlighted by road games against the Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers and a “home game” against the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars in London.
Super Bowl windows only last for so long, but the first goal for the 2023 Bills will be to secure a playoff spot because that is far from a guarantee this season.
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers
Win Total Over/Under: 9.5
Win Division: +250
The most significant roster alteration this off-season happened in East Rutherford, N.J.
Veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, winner of four MVP awards and a Super Bowl title in 2011, was traded to the Jets in April after an 18-year run with the Green Bay Packers.
The move for the future Hall of Fame pivot, who will turn 40 in early December, has given the Jets hope for a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, the longest drought in the NFL.
A few former Packers teammates will be joining Rodgers in New York, highlighted by receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb who, alongside Offensive Rookie of the Year in Garrett Wilson, should help the Jets improve their mediocre offence from a season ago.
The 2022 Jets, led by quarterback Zach Wilson, averaged 318.2 yards and 17.4 points per game, eighth and fourth worst in the NFL, respectively.
New York’s running attack should improve as well with the addition of four-time Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook, who has run for over 1,100 yards in each of the past four seasons, and the return of Breece Hall, who was putting together a solid rookie campaign last year before suffering a torn ACL in Week 7.
Led by their Defensive Rookie of the Year in cornerback Sauce Gardner and All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, the Jets were a top-five defence in 2022, allowing just 311.1 yards and 18.6 points per game.
With the defensive-minded Robert Saleh returning as Jets head coach for a third season, expect New York’s defence to remain one of the best in the NFL in 2023.
The Jets are coming off a 7-10 record. With the return of an elite defence and the additional of some veteran firepower on offence, it would be disappointment for the Jets not to end their playoff drought in 2023, with the potential of a divisional title or even a Super Bowl championship being a real possibility.
“I think it’s very realistic,” Cook told the New York Post of the Jets winning the Super Bowl. “Obviously you look at the roster, you look at the people we’ve added and the things that we already had, just combining that in one, and I think it’s something to be excited about.
“We just gotta go out there and do our part. . . . That’s why I came, that’s why I’m here, to help any way I can to get to where we need to go, and that’s holding up the trophy, and that’s what we’re trying to do.”
It could all depend on Rodgers and if he still has enough to lead a contender at the age of 40.
The first Monday Night Football matchup of the season– featuring the Bills paying a visit to MetLife Stadium against the Jets on Sept. 11 – cannot come soon enough.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins
Win Total Over/Under: 9.5
Win Division: +290
Tua Tagovailoa is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL if he can stay on the field.
The Dolphins made the playoffs for the first time since 2016 last year and almost defeated the division-winning Bills in the wild-card round.
Unfortunately, the season was overshadowed by head injuries to their star quarterback.
Tagovailoa, 25, suffered two concussions in 2022, with the last one in Week 15 knocking him out for the rest of the regular season and the playoffs. In just 13 games, the 2020 fifth-overall pick threw for 3,548 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Over his three-year NFL career, Tagovailoa hasn’t been able to play more than 13 games in a season due to injury.
Mike White, who has eight games of experience over two seasons with the Jets, is slated to serve as the backup.
If Tagovailoa can stay healthy, the Dolphins should have one of the most prolific passing offences in the NFL, featuring star receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The dynamic duo combined for 3,066 yards receiving and 15 touchdown for a Miami offence that averaged 265.4 yards per game through the air, fourth best in the NFL in 2022.
Miami’s defence added some star power to their defence this summer after acquiring six-time Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams. Ramsey is expected to be out until December after undergoing a full meniscus repair in his left knee in late July.
Like the Bills and Jets, the Fins are true contenders on paper to capture their first AFC East title since 2008 and could be primed to make a deep run in the playoffs. You can throw all that out the window, however, if Tua is unable to stay healthy. It will make or break Miami’s 2023 season.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones New England Patriots
Win Total Over/Under: 7.5
Win Division: +800
The once mighty Patriots are destined to finish in the basement of the AFC East, according to most experts and sportsbooks.
It’s not as if the Pats are expected to be an awful team in 2023 (they have a win total of 7.5 via FanDuel) but will play in what looks to be the toughest division in football.
Another hurdle the Patriots will have to clear is the fact that they don’t have a proven quarterback, or at least one at the same level as the other AFC East teams.
Mac Jones, the 15th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, will be entering his third pro season after recording 2,997 yards with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions over 14 games for a New England squad that finished 8-9 last year.
The 24-year-old, who lost his starter’s role for a portion of 2022 to backup Bailey Zappe, needs to make some significant progress behind centre if the Patriots want to be playoff contenders.
New England did add some power to their lacklustre offence (314.6 yards per game in 2022, seventh worst in the NFL) with former Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who won the Super Bowl with the Chiefs last season.
Bill Belichick has led the Patriots to a 25-25 regular season record and an 0-1 postseason record since the departure of the legendary Tom Brady in 2020.
Another .500 record may be the realistic goal for the Patriots this season as they’ll be in tough competing in the most loaded division in football.
Betting odds via FanDuel.