The good, bad and indifferent from Jays' first 10 games

TORONTO — Already 10 games into the season, the Toronto Blue Jays return home to a renovated dome and the scene of last year’s playoff ouster for the first time in 2023.

Faced with an unenviable road trip through St. Louis, Kansas City and Anaheim, it’s been a mixed bag for John Schneider’s ballclub to begin the new campaign. They faced a pair of playoff contenders and also had the good fortune of being able to beat up on a rebuilding team in the Royals.

They’ll take 6-4, but there’s no doubt it could’ve been better had the starting pitching held up its end of the bargain.

There are two obvious takeaways from the first six per cent of the season, which is what the Jays have carved out of their 162 heading into their first homestand.

The first is this team still rakes.

And the second, with all the small-sample-size caveats in play, is will this club’s pitching hold up over the long haul?

With those two takeaways in mind, here’s a deeper look into the good, the bad and the indifferent of the first 10 games.

The good

Matt Chapman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays

The MVP candidates: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Matt Chapman have been carrying this club offensively, and all three have been looking like legitimate MVP candidates early on. Coming into Tuesday, Chapman, thanks to a staggering 275 wRC+ and his adjusted all-fields approach, was tied for the MLB lead in fWAR, while Vladdy and his measly three strikeouts wasn’t far behind. All three of these guys have taken turns winning them games singlehandedly already.

The supporting outfield cast: Brought in to provide down-lineup production as well as some leadership, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier have both looked great in a Jays uniform, providing some hustle, Gold Glove defence and elite base-running chops. They’ve both hit well, too, which is a bonus in the case of KK. Both look like excellent additions.

Kevin Gausman looking ace-like: Without the LSU product’s zero earned runs allowed across two starts, the rotation numbers for the Jays would be downright ugly with a capital U. The 32-year-old righty went six strong innings in both of his starts to right the ship and he’s become known for his consistent ways. In 25 of his 31 starts last season, Gausman allowed three earned runs or less. If it weren’t for some batted ball luck going against him to start his Blue Jays career, he could’ve been in the Cy Young convo last year, and he just might be this year when all is said and done. He’s smack dab in the middle of his prime.

The bad

Jose Berrios Toronto Blue Jays

Bichette’s glove: Let’s get this out of the way first. You live with Bichette’s erratic ways at shortstop when he’s producing like an MVP candidate at the plate. You just do. That’s analytics for you and the good far outweighs the bad, as tough as it is to watch sometimes. After a minus-16 DRS season a year ago, Bichette hasn’t exactly made strides in the first 10 games of 2023, showing the same penchant for sailing throws to first as he has for most of career, and he’s already made two throwing errors and literally booted a ball for a third so far. Statcast’s Outs Above Average already has him at minus-1 runs prevented and near the bottom of the shortstop chart. Over the course of a long season, Bichette will erase all those mostly meaningless errors with big time run production, but what happens in the playoffs when an errant throw can lose a game? That’s the scary part.

Same Jose Berrios: After being acquired from the Minnesota Twins for his track record of consistency, Berrios was anything but that in 2022, posting by far the worst numbers of his career with a 5.23 ERA across 32 turns. The issue last year was fastball command. Through two starts, that issue has not gone away, despite having a winter to tinker, and that’s not very encouraging. You can sort of wave the small-sample-size flag here, but 12 earned runs across 9.2 innings is tough to ignore when it’s happening in the same fashion it did all of last season. Berrios will likely bounce back to provide a number of quality outings just like he did last year, but the bullpen-wrecking blowups are far too frequent when his heater is catching too much of the plate and no one seems to have a fix.

Overall rotation: The only number you need is 6.22 and that rotation ERA isn’t going to cut it for a contender. That’s obviously going to get much better, but when you’re hovering around the likes of Oakland (9.53 rotation ERA), Detroit (7.49) and Pittsburgh (6.52) at the bottom of the league, something is wrong. Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt, Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi have all taken turns posting duds and you have to wonder if that’s early season inconsistency or just what this group will be all year.

The indifferent

Chris Bassitt Toronto Blue Jays

The defence: Improving the glovework, especially in the outfield, was a priority for the front office this winter, and on paper they did exactly that. Through 10 games, however, the numbers have them as a middling defensive team with Statcast’s Outs Above Average assigning them a minus-2 grade as a team, placing them 19th in baseball. The sample size is very small, though, and a lot of it has to do with Bichette at this point. There’s no reason this team shouldn’t be above average at every spot but short defensively, but the numbers don’t bear that out thus far.

Brandon Belt’s struggles: There’s no sugar-coating this one. Belt looks like a 35-year-old who’s coming off knee surgery and didn’t get enough at-bats this spring to be ready for the season. Across his first 25 trips to the plate, the lefty has just one hit — a double — and has been worth minus-0.4 fWAR, striking out a whopping 15 times. Is this just early season rust or is Belt washed? Coming off a .213/.326/.350 slash line in San Fran last year, it’s a fair question. But we’re also trying to remember it’s not even mid-April yet.

The catchers: The top duo in all of baseball last season at a combined 7.3 fWAR, Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen have both struggled over the first 10 games and currently sit 29th in baseball at minus-0.5 fWAR. Defensively, they’ve struggled against the barrage of base-stealers thanks to the new rules, while they’ve also combined to slash just .122/.234/.122 without a single extra-base hit thus far.

Chris Bassitt: When you combine his first start in St. Louis and the first inning in his second turn against the Angels, it was an ugly Blue Jays debut for the veteran righty who signed for $63 million over three years in the off-season. But his final five frames on Friday night on the West Coast looked like vintage Bassitt, as he settled in, mixed his pitches, and kept Mike Trout & Co. off balance. The PitchCom struggles are overblown — Bassitt says he’s comfortable with it — and the velocity started to tick back up into his usual 92-94 mph range, a good sign he’s finally settling in. As long as he’s healthy, Bassitt will be better moving forward.

The bullpen: It hasn’t been a dominant shutdown ‘pen by any means, as Jordan Romano’s group sits 14th in bullpen ERA at 3.96, but it hasn’t been one that’s squandering many leads, either. The common complaint with the Jays bullpen is its lack of swing-and-miss in the late innings when it comes to getting the ball to the aforementioned star closer, and the Jays currently sit 15th in baseball at 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings, well behind the Yankees’ league-leading mark of 11.9. One very concerning number is the fact they’ve allowed a 45.4 per cent hard-hit rate, third worst in baseball and hovering around rebuilders like the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s early, but the back of the bullpen will be a point of emphasis at the trade deadline, there’s little doubt.