A four-horse race with no true thoroughbred

Kristian Jack

TSN Soccer Analyst

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Jose Mourinho has done a lot of talking this summer. He's not the only one. It has been over two months since meaningful games have been played, but column inches and television shows still need material.

By the weekend, the true stories will develop where they should: on the field.

In his latest press conference, fresh off another immature spat with Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger, the Chelsea boss gave us his judgment on how the rest of the league will shape up against the same old super powers.

"There will be more times when the non-title contenders win matches against the title contenders," he said.

Mourinho went on to praise other teams for signing players like Yohan Cabaye and Max Gradel, who he believes would be good enough to play for Chelsea.

Using this reasoning, Mourinho believes the gap will be closer this season. But what if the true top contenders have all improved as well? Some would argue they have to.

Last season was not a great one for the Premier League. At the top, the elite sides were found out in Europe. Quality throughout the league wasn't good enough. Far too many teams couldn't defend properly for too long, and a number of very poor teams still avoided the drop. Chelsea won the league easily, cruising down the final stretch without being tested despite a number of mediocre performances. Arsenal started poorly, so too Manchester United, and Manchester City never came close to the level that saw them take the title the previous year. 

There are many, Mourinho clearly included, who believe the league will be better if the rest close the gap on the top four. But if the Premier League wants to restore its reputation as a truly 'great' league the best four teams need to do better against the rest of the league and not worse, as the Blues boss predicts.

Chelsea (87), Manchester City (79), Arsenal (75) and Manchester United (70) combined for 311 points last season.

In the 2013/14 season, Manchester City (86), Liverpool (84), Chelsea (82) and Arsenal (79) managed 331 points; a full 20 points – effectively six wins and two draws – better. Their combined 331 that season tied the highest point total for the top four teams since the turn of the century.

For four straight seasons, between 2005/06 to 2008/09, the same four teams – Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool - occupied the top four spots. In the six seasons since we haven't had back-to-back campaigns where the same four have finished in those spots.

That looks under serious threat this season. It is the time of year for predictions and you don't have to look far to find sites that have any of the current top four winning the league in 2015/16.

Some have called it a four-horse race but none of these are true thoroughbred champions yet. All need to improve.

How will the top four progress?

CHELSEA

Mourinho's men stayed at the top of the table for 274 days last season, a Premier League record.

John Terry became the second outfield player in Premier League history to play every minute for a Premier League champion (Gary Pallister, 1992-93). The back four of Branislav Ivanovic, Terry, Gary Cahill and Cesar Azpilicueta combined for 138 of a possible 152 starts.

In the midfield, Cesc Fabregas and Nemanja Matic had 33 and 35 starts respectively. Ahead of them, player of the year Eden Hazard started all 38 games. Expecting this to happen again is naïve. No other Premier League- winning team in the last decade has come close to this amount of players combining for this amount of starts. Mourinho needs to manage his squad better to get the benefit out of key players for the full season.

Chelsea were exhilarating in the first half of last season and some talked about them going unbeaten throughout. They haven't made too many key additions – yet – but the core is still there for them to get close to that level again. That's why it is right to expect Chelsea to kick on and improve rather than drop back. In the second half of the season they looked worn down but still managed to defend better than any other team in the league. 

Under Mourinho, Chelsea doesn't lose big matches. Their record against the other three top four teams, plus Liverpool – top four the previous year – was very good last season, taking 14 points from eight games with no losses. In Mourinho's first season they took 20 points – again, no losses - from those games. If Chelsea are to become a truly great champion this is an area that can help them move past the 87 points they reached last season and beyond the 90- point mark. A fitter and healthier Diego Costa would also help.

MANCHESTER CITY

No team in the top four underachieved more than City. By mid-April the champions had fully surrendered their crown. Hammered 4-2 at Manchester United, they stood on 61 points through 32 games, fourth in the table. Only wins in each of their last six games helped them to second and took away some of the embarrassment. The fact remains that for the second time they dropped off significantly when trying to defend their title. "We will do much better in the second season under Pellegrini," said CEO Ferran Soriano last summer.

He was proven to be a very poor predictor. New signings like Fernando and Eliaquim Mangala didn't have the impact the club had hoped and by the end of the season were looked at as liabilities not trusted to start. 

Manuel Pellegrini still has a fantastic squad to work with but there are far too many are excellent individual players that don't get the best out of others. He needs to work on this and show some tactical versatility or he will not be back for another season. In Sergio Aguero they have one of the best 10 players in world football but at that level he was the right to watch closely how City progress. Finding a true holding midfielder to stop Vincent Kompany repeatedly jumping up into midfield can't hurt. They took the lead 33 times last season but surrendered it 10 times, losing two-goal leads against the likes of Hull, Swansea, Burnley, Sunderland and Aston Villa.

ARSENAL

For the tenth successive Premier League season Arsenal finished outside the top two. Third place was an improvement but 75 points was not. This season any of those would be considered a major disappointment for Arsene Wenger's team, tipped by many to now seriously challenge.

The Gunners major problem during the last decade has been consistency. For months they can look like a champion, then drop off nowhere near when it matters or gain steam only when it is too late. Last season they were 15 points behind Chelsea in November and their race was run. They went on to be the best team in the land for the rest of the season and it's that run that has led to optimism about the upcoming season.

Wenger's team has now shown us for over five months that they can look like a championship winning team. 

They led the second half of the season table – Arsenal 42, Chelsea 41, Man City 36, Man Utd 34 – but it was more than just points that proved they may have what it takes. Against the other three teams, plus Liverpool, Wenger's team finally succeeded taking 10 points from the eight games but the difference in performances and results in the second half was striking and much different from the past:

Arsenal vs. Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd 

2013/14 season (when Chelsea got 20 points from the same games) – one win, three draws, four losses - six points including losses of 6-0, 5-1 and 6-3.

First half of 2014/15 season – zero wins, two draws, two losses – two points

Second half of 2014/15 – two wins, two draws, zero losses – eight points

The 65 points they took from the other 15 teams may be enough if they can get to a point where they can get 20 from the big games. If Arsenal want to become champions they have to play like champions when the lights are the brightest. It started with an eye-catching win at Man City in January where they worked much harder on their game without the ball. However, outplayed and outsmarted by Monaco in the Champions League a few weeks later, doubts returned.

Many feel Petr Cech's arrival will help in this area. Much will also rest on the shoulders of Alexis Sanchez, a player, unfortunately, on the verge of exhaustion who cannot miss too much time. The key to the success for Arsenal will be the health of Laurent Koscielny and the development of Francis Coquelin.

Koscielny is one of the world's best defenders and only started eight of the team's first 18 games last season through injury. He was badly missed. When he played the team averaged 2.1 points per game, compared to just 1.6 when he was missing. Coquelin led the league in interceptions per game but was only given his chance for the second half of the season, starting 19 of the final 20 games. Over a full season we will find out if he is good enough.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Louis Van Gaal started his first season in charge at Old Trafford with a favourable schedule. However, after 10 games the club had only 13 points and questions were asked about whether they could miss the Champions League for the second straight season. Van Gaal continued to tinker with formations and styles, but over the remaining 28 games they showed they could compete with the teams at the top.

United got results and did what they needed to make the top four. Since, they have said goodbye to stars like Radamel Falcao, Robin van Persie and Angel Di Maria, but have recruited well and are expected to not only beat the 70 points from last season but also play in a way more fitting for a team like United.

Lumping long balls to the back post for Marouane Fellaini last season won them some games but that style should be in the past. The best midfield performance at Old Trafford last season was from Morgan Schneiderlin who was magnificent in a 1-0 win by Southampton. The Frenchman is now a United player, surrounded by multiple midfielders that can influence a game bringing much needed control and intelligence.

They look a striker short at the moment but we are told Wayne Rooney will play as a number nine this season. "It's my best position so hopefully I play up there again this season," said the captain recently. This presents two potential problems for United. Is Rooney good enough to be truly elite and score 20 or more goals in that position? Sir Alex Ferguson didn't think so. Second of all, Van Gaal's 4-3-3 (4-2-3-1 in preseason) wants no part of Rooney deeper, either wide in a 4-3-3 or as a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1 as he attempts to bring much-needed pace into the team, so Rooney's one spot can't really be challenged. Van Gaal could sign a star centre-forward, but unless he can play deeper it would provide the Dutchman with a major challenge if the new signing was suddenly more clinical in front of goal than the skipper. United only scored 62 goals last season and need at least 10 more to be serious challengers (Chelsea's 73 was the lowest by a champion in six years).