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TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips offers his scouting report on the American League East after spending time at each team’s camp this spring


TAMPA BAY RAYS

Last season: 68-94, fifth place

Key additions:
C Wilson Ramos (signed two-year, $12-million deal)
OF Colby Rasmus (signed, one-year, $5-million deal)
RHP Jose De Leon (acquired from Dodgers for 2B Logan Forsythe)
LHP John Lamb (acquired from the Reds)
OF Mallex Smith (acquired from the Mariners for LHP Drew Smyly)
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (signed one-year, $2-million deal)
 
Key losses:
2B Logan Forsythe (traded to the Dodgers)
LHP Drew Smyly (traded to the Mariners)
CF Mikey Mahtook (traded to Tigers)
 
Strengths:
Starting Pitching
The Rays always seem to have good young starting pitching. Last season, however, it wasn’t quite up to par. I have every expectation that ace Chris Archer (9-19 4.02 ERA) will get back on track this year and pitch like he did in the second half (5-7, 3.25 ERA). Archer said his struggles can be attributed to a few extra homers in 2016.

Alex Cobb, who was once the ace of the Rays, is back from Tommy John surgery, but I have some concerns that he is mentally all the way back as he seems to be lacking some confidence. Jake Odorizzi is a guy coveted by many teams. Blake Snell is an up- and-coming lefty with easy stuff. Jose DeLeon, acquired from the Dodgers, has a shot at the rotation as well. He is a charming young man who still needs to develop his secondary pitches and he knows it.
Interestingly, all of their starters understand the better they throw, the better the chance they have to win, but it also means there is a better chance they could be traded. 

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Power
The Rays were fourth in the American League in home runs in 2016. Evan Longoria looks as good physically as I have ever seen.  He smacked 36 homers last year.  
Brad Miller, who will play second base this year, hit 30 bombs last season. I watched Miller launch shot after shot in batting practice. Some can hit it as far, but no one can hit it further than him. He added a Josh Donaldson-like leg kick and it has increased his power.   

Steven Souza, Colby Rasmus and Corey Dickerson can all hit 25 homers as well.   
 
Weaknesses:
Bullpen
The bullpen was 20-33 with a 4.09 ERA last season. The Rays had the fewest wins and the most losses of any pen. Their ERA was ranked 11th in the league. They also had the third most walks and the second most homers allowed. The Rays used 19 different relievers last season, but got a pretty consistent effort from closer Alex Colome, who saved 37 of 40 games. The bridge of middle relievers did not perform well enough.
 
On-Base Percentage
The Rays believe that the reason they were fourth in homers and 14th in runs scored last season was because of bad timing. Manager Kevin Cash said it and GM Erik Neander confirmed it. They believe they just had bad luck that so many of their homers were solo shots.

I don’t buy that.  That is wishful thinking.  They hit solo homers because they don’t get enough runners on base via the walk (11th in AL) or hits (15th in AL). Some of their hitters have power but they are not good hitters. It isn’t timing; it is lack of quality at bats.

Kevin Kiermaier told me he figured some things out last year that helped his OBP. I believe he will be even better this year, but I don’t see a lot of growth with the Rays otherwise in this area.  
 
Defence
Kiermaier is a Gold Glove centre fielder. Longoria is a high quality defender at third. Logan Morrison is more than adequate at first. The addition of Rasmus will improve their defence in left field. The problem is the Rays have players out of position in the infield: Matt Duffy is a third baseman playing shortstop and Brad Miller is a first baseman playing second base. That is not typically how infielders get moved on the field. Normally players move from the middle of the field to the corners, not the other way around. The catching corps will be upgraded once Wilson Ramos recovers from his torn ACL. Until then it is just mediocre.  

Matt Duffy expressed concern to me about how his feet will work once he heels from a serious Achilles injury. Good feet are critical for good fielding. Players are typically the last to acknowledge limitations.
The defensive deficiencies can impact the pitching staff in a negative way as it may force them to go for strikeouts while trying to avoid contact. That is a bad combination as it leads to nibbling the corners of the plate and better hitter counts for the opposition.
 
Outlook
The Rays pitching will give them a shot to be in most games, but their defence, lack of offensive opportunities and bullpen will make it very difficult to consistently close them out. The offence will be inconsistent because it is all or nothing. The Rays will be a fifth-place team in the tough AL East. I suspect they will trade Archer, Odorizzi, Cobb and Colome before season’s end.

Prediction: 75-87, fifth place

AL EAST PREVIEWS: Blue Jays - Red Sox - Yankees - Orioles