Why the Blue Jays should trade for Soto

Last weekend, big news broke out of Washington that the Nationals had a massive 15-year $440 million contract offer rejected by young superstar outfielder Juan Soto.

There were also reports that Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, believed Washington’s offer to be about $100 million short of the appropriate value. It has become clear to the Nationals ownership and front office that they aren’t going to be able to sign their young slugger. So, they made the contract offer public via the media and then made it clear they would likely trade the 23-year-old. 

This was the second major Soto negotiation the Nationals have had with Boras. Previously, Washington offered $350 million over 13 years. The only difference is that Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said the team had no intention of trading Soto after the first round of failed negotiations. At that point, they figured they would likely make another offer and just wanted to regroup. They may have even believed that they knew what it would take ultimately to make a deal.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the club is up for sale, so the Nationals brass may have wanted to discuss whether the team would be more valuable with Soto signed to an extraordinary deal or whether trading him for multiple impact prospects was the better way to go.

The direction is now clear. The Nationals aren’t going to sign Soto and he will be traded, most likely before the deadline on Aug. 2.

Soto will not be a free agent until after the 2024 season, so if the Nats don’t hear the offer they were hoping for at the trade deadline, they could pull back and wait until the off-season to trade him. Any team acquiring the right fielder now would potentially have him for three playoff runs before he hits free agency. His value will never be higher than it is right now. It is going to take a significant package of talent to make the deal.

There are going to be more than a handful of teams with interest. Because Soto won’t be a free agent for two and a half more years, any team that truly believes they are playoff worthy this year or next will likely make an offer. It doesn’t matter whether they think they can sign him for the long term. He isn’t going to sign before becoming a free agent anyway. So, if he can help a team get to the playoffs, he is worth acquiring now.

This includes the Toronto Blue Jays. My initial thought was that he didn’t make sense for Toronto, but I have changed my mind. Soto in the same batting order as George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez would create a fearsome lineup. Soto’s extraordinary patience and plate discipline would be extremely helpful for Guerrero, Bichette and Hernandez. His approach could rub off on the rest of the lineup, which is a perfect fit for a player of Soto’s age and experience. 

My initial hesitancy for the Jays stemmed from the reality that they likely couldn’t sign Soto and still sign Guerrero and Bichette and Hernandez for the long term. But so what? Having Soto may provide the Jays options on how to spend their money.

And even if Soto goes to free agency, the two-plus years he will have played in Toronto could provide the incentive for him to want to re-sign there as a free agent. If the Jays realize they can’t sign Guerrero to a long-term deal, they could sign Soto and let Guerrero walk away. Toronto likely can’t afford both, but it is good to have options.  

The other thing to remember is that two-plus years is a long time. If the Jays were to acquire  Soto in the next 10 days, there is nothing that says they couldn’t trade him down the road. Of course, the hope would be that they would get him for three playoff runs on the way to three World Series championships. But if things don’t go the way the Jays hope, they could always trade him at the deadline next year, or the year after, or anytime in between. 

So, what are we really talking about? 

Make the trade to acquire him and let him lead you to compete for three straight championships or cut your losses at any time and recoup some or all of the prospects it took to acquire him in the first place. The difference between the acquisition cost and what they could get back later if they decide to trade him is well worth the opportunity to chase a World Series or two.

What would it take to get Soto from the Nationals? I have seen so many different opinions. Some of the speculative trade offers I have seen from media members have been outrageous. Soto is very good, but this is not a Herschel Walker situation. Walker was a former Dallas Cowboy running back who was traded to the Minnesota Vikings in 1989 in a deal that ultimately included 18 players and draft picks. 

Last year at the trade deadline, the Nationals traded veteran ace pitcher Max Scherzer, who was a free agent at the end of the season, and All-Star infielder Trea Turner, who had one more season of control, to the Dodgers for two blue-chip prospects (starting pitcher Josiah Gray and catcher Keibert Ruiz).  Soto may cost more than two blue-chip prospects, but not that much more.

The Jays would likely have to include infielder Orelvis Martinez (currently in Double-A New Hampshire), plus catcher Gabriel Moreno and pitcher Nate Pearson (both currently in Triple-A Buffalo) and possibly Cavan Biggio. Yes, it’s a significant package that would hurt some, but you don’t get a superstar for nothing.

After making the Soto deal, I would trade a package built around outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has two years of control left after this season, to acquire pitching.

Gurriel may get the Jays a package that includes starting pitcher Martin Perez and reliever Joe Barlow or Brock Burke from the Texas Rangers. Or maybe he could help the Jays get starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard and relievers Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera from the Los Angeles Angels. Or lefty relievers Gregory Soto and Andrew Chafin and righty Michael Fulmer from the Detroit Tigers, who need offence. Or starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins.

This has a chance to be a remarkable trade deadline. The Soto sweepstakes have everyone drooling because he is such a difference maker. The Jays can be in the mix, but they will have to beat out the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners, among others, to get him.