Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Saturday's slate

The season is young, but so far no team looks unbeatable or completely catastrophic. This makes finding ideal betting opportunities challenging. This weekend, I lean on two analytics darlings and one playoff team from last season that is trying to avoid a disastrous start.

San Jose Sharks at New Jersey Devils
Saturday, October 22 – 1:00PM ET

The New Jersey Devils are a franchise on the rise; the San Jose Sharks are in the midst of a plunge. Poor San Jose. The Sharks started the season losing their first five games, two of which were outside of North America. They have not scored more than two goals in regulation this season and are tied for last in goal differential. They lack speed and quality young talent.

The Devils have won consecutive games. They are the NHL’s premier advanced stats team. They have the best expected goals and high-danger chances percentage on offence and defence. They are one of the fastest teams in the NHL and have a stash of young talent, led by the incandescent Jack Hughes, who looks incredible.

The Sharks’ only path to winning on Saturday is by slowing the game down. They will be looking to establish the cycle, and under new coach David Quinn, their defencemen are much more aggressive pinching in the offensive zone in an effort to maintain territorial possession. How the Sharks support their defencemen on pinches and when holding the blue line will be critical against the Devils.

On Thursday night, Filip Chytil scored the first Rangers goal when Sharks forward Luke Kunin whiffed on a puck after trying to back-up a pinching defenceman. On Chris Kreider’s blast off the crossbar, San Jose’s Mario Ferraro stepped up to try to deny the entry at the blue line, and Kreider slid by him for the rush chance.

The Sharks have a quandary without an easy answer. They can’t sit back and let their opponent dictate the terms of the game, but they also lack the personnel to play aggressively without surrendering prime chances.

The Devils want to use their speed to gash opponents. On Hughes’s first goal of the season, which came against the Islanders Thursday night, a quick-up from Damon Severson found Hughes behind the New York defence. On Tuesday night, the Devils used their quickness to push the Ducks’ defence back, and then their forwards fed their defencemen as the second layer of attack.

One area where the Sharks could have an edge is goaltending. James Reimer has been sterling this season in his four starts, while for the Devils both goaltending options are mediocre. If Reimer plays, he might be able to keep this game competitive, but the Devils have a decisive advantage in skill and depth. The Sharks have had an unforgiving schedule to start the season. Although they finally prevailed Thursday night, picking up two straight wins against superior teams on the road seems unlikely.

Pick: Devils -200

Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets
Saturday, October 22 – 7:00PM ET

Acquire the biggest free agent over the summer in Johnny Gaudreau and expectations naturally follow. But fate had other plans for Columbus, as sharpshooter Patrik Laine suffered an injury that put him on injured reserve in the first game of the season and the Blue Jackets proceeded to lose their first three games.

Now Columbus has strung together consecutive wins and Gaudreau has a four-game point streak. Against Nashville on Thursday night, the Blue Jackets had a sluggish start, but they dominated the final two frames, outshooting the Predators 23-13 at 5-on-5 and besting them in high-danger chances 10-4. The Blue Jackets rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win 5-3.

On Saturday, the Blue Jackets will face a familiar nemesis in the Pittsburgh Penguins. Unfortunately for Columbus, I think Pittsburgh presents a very difficult matchup, and I think the Blue Jackets will struggle mightily in their own end.

The Penguins want to create puck battles in the low slot, and they use a variety of tactics to achieve that outcome. They use the low-to-high play, with their defencemen hammering a shot into traffic. They can attempt shot passes for tips in front. And they are keen on throwing the puck at bad angles off an opposing goaltender’s pad to create a rebound chance for a teammate around the crease.

The Blue Jackets want to front the puck in the offensive zone. But sometimes they struggle to sort out their defensive coverage. This was evident on Thursday with Nashville’s goal by Ryan Johansen. Johansen was left all alone because Blue Jackets Boone Jenner left defenceman Zach Werenski on an island in front of the net, faced with the task of fending off two Nashville forwards. The Predators had their best success in that game when forcing Columbus to box them out around the low slot. In terms of the effect on Saturday’s matchup, the Blue Jackets’ own-zone coverage is salient because Pittsburgh will want to attack in the area where Columbus is the most vulnerable.  

Could this game be close? Absolutely. The Blue Jackets have offensive talent, and if they can seize on two Pittsburgh skaters ganging up on the puck-carrier in the offensive zone, they have the ability to find the open man.

But the various routes to victory for Pittsburgh make them a compelling choice. And the Penguins also enjoy an advantage at goaltender. The Penguins are vastly superior in the advanced stats and are playing very well. I like them to cruise on Saturday.

Pick: Penguins -175

Philadelphia Flyers at Nashville Predators
Saturday, October 22 – 8:00PM ET

It might be hyperbolic to say Saturday is a must-win game for the Nashville Predators. But making up ground is very difficult in the NHL, and a fifth straight loss to a non-San-Jose team would be highly alarming. This is especially true in a deep Western Conference. Nashville acquired veterans Ryan McDonagh and Nino Niederreiter in the offseason and re-signed Filip Forsberg because it wants to vie for the Stanley Cup. So yeah, the Predators should be panicked by the prospect of starting out losing five of their first seven games.

Problems abound for the Preds. They are getting hemmed in their own end a lot. Their puck management has been poor and they have been taking too many penalties. During their four-game losing streak, their offence has been abysmal, submitting a lowly 8.86 high-danger chances created per 60 minutes, which ranks them fifth worst during that time interval. Nashville can advance the puck into the offensive zone, but generating slot chances has been a struggle.

The Flyers could be the antidote to the Predators’ ills. Philadelphia has a 3-1 record, but its success looks about as concrete as a mirage. The Flyers are dreadful in the advanced stats and they have trailed 2-0 in three of their four games this season. They have a very thin stable of forwards who can generate offence, and wins have been propelled to a large degree by goaltender Carter Hart.

The Predators are going to want to play a heavy forechecking game and simplify. The Flyers are going to want to play a physical game and get in on the forecheck. In other words, we are going to see a lot of time with the puck being played behind the net and after-the-whistle skirmishes.

Coach John Hynes took over for Peter Laviolette in January 2020, and over that time he has never lost five games in a row. Losing at home to a less skilled Flyers team trying to beat the Predators at their own game would be insult to injury. I think Predators goaltender Juuse Saros plays better and they pull out a gritty victory. 

Pick: Predators -195